Jumps Racing - 9th of January

[Monterosso]

2:25 Leopardstown - New Phase - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower) I'm not a fan of Irish racing by any means, as I can never get it right but I really like the look of this fellow and I expect he'll put in a brave bid for the in-form Dermot Weld yard, who have recently taken a big scalp when winning the Paddy Power Chase at this course in December. Hopefully they get a good chance at making it a fine double by taking this handicap hurdle. They certainly come here with a horse who I believe is potentially well handicapped, especially as he gets 2 of the things he craves. He's getting his soft ground, which is his optimum and he's also getting a chance to win a handicap with ideal conditions, something he did not have when coming 3rd of 9 at Naas in October. The ground was quick that day and the 2m 3f trip would of also stretched him, so I think that 2miles on soft ground on the back of a strong pace will see this fellow overcome his official rating of 133. My one worry is that he has never won left handed, with all 5 career victories coming the other way around. However, he has run respectably on a few occasions going this way around and his only C&D run produced a decent 4th place on what was his 2nd run over hurdles. That experience should stand him in good stead and I expect he'll build on it if getting some luck. He's a soft ground horse through and through, so his previous 3 efforts before his last run can be ignored as an accurate form representation in my opinion, although 2 of them were decent runs on GF while the other was a mid division finish in the Galway Hurdle. I still believe everything is much better for him when going on softer ground and it's now time for us to witness this horses true ability. New Phase ran a cracker last time out at Cork, arguably one of his best performances, especially visually. He destroyed a decent field by an easy 4 lengths over 2miles on soft ground, jumping supremely in the main and staying on like a good thing. He done all of this giving 7lbs to a horse rated 7lb superior to him called Jered. That's a very good yardstick even though Weld's animal had the benefit of a run but it wouldn't equate to such a trouncing when 14lbs wrong at the weights. It's not spectacular form by any means but it was very good on the eye and proved to me that this horse is still progressing along nicely. He has to carry a lot of weight here, 11st 7lbs to be exact, but that shouldn't be a problem to a horse who looks built to carry weight and he has the benefit of one of my favourite jockeys in the saddle. Robbie McNamara, the many who gave me my biggest ever BSP winner at 150/1 in Galway, takes the ride on a horse who he has been on board 7 times, winning 4. He clearly strikes up a nice partnership with this horse and he'll be aiming to land another big race in the space of 2 weeks. Weld and Robbie Mac have a 33% strike rate over hurdles here, albeit from only 6 runners but I like my stats and this is certainly a nice looking one on paper. Weld has a 16% strike rate with hurdlers at Leopardstown and Robbie has an overall 29% strike rate here, with a tidy 9 winners from 31 rides. They're a formidable partnership and should be able to get this fellow bang in the mix here. New Phase was planned to take time off over the winter before going chasing, which is really interesting as those seem to have been delayed, hopefully in anticipation of taking this €60,000 pot. The horse himself is still unexposed having only had 8 runs over hurdles and could be well able to improve past his 133 rating. His ability to handle the high speed hustle and bustle of such a race is an unknown at this stage but he cruises through his races in nice fashion and it could actually work in his favour. He has also won in 24 and 22 runner races before, including on his hurling debut. He has a very nice turn of foot too which will be vital against some classy animals here so I'm hoping he's kept up with the pace and tries to slip a few lengths on the field when turning for home, if he gets the chance of course. The 14's available are massive, especially with 5 places being paid. I marked him down as a fair 13/2 shot as he has a lot in his favour. He'd be even shorter in my book had this race been run the other way around but I'll take my chances with a reasonably sized each way bet in the hope that he fulfills the promise that he has looked like he's capable of. Fingers crossed for another big Weld/McNamara race victory.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Racing - 9th of January Leopardstown 2.25 Final Approach EW - 12/1 SJ Owner sponsors the race and this fella has been trained specifically for this. 12/1 with 5 places at SJ is a cracking bet. He's unexposed and could be very well handicapped today.