Jumps Racing - 8th of January

[Monterosso]

1:10 Chepstow - Marsh Warbler - 1pt @ 8/1 (VC) Tough race to solve by all means and the favourite from the Nicholls stable looks hard to oppose but I'm doing so anyways. I'm siding with Brian Ellison's potentially high class 4 year old who has already won 2 of his opening 3 runs over hurdles, in impressive fashion too. He's a former Mark Johnston flat horse, who achieved a peak rating of 85 in that code, so he was certainly deemed as a decent type. He was also with David Simcock for a while and left him after dotting up in a class 6 seller at Leicester on very testing ground in October. Ellison ended up with him then and gave him his debut over hurdles on the 7th of November, in which he finished 3rd on soft ground, 3 lengths behind Pullyourfingerout, who in turn finished 6 lengths behind todays favourite, Sam Winner. That form alone means Ellison's charge has a lot to find but I don't think it's beyond him as that was his first run over hurdles and he has since proved to be a much better animal. He was turned out very quickly to run in a class 4 maiden at Bangor on the 10th of November, in what was a relatively weak contest. He absolutely trounced the field to score by 23 lengths, despite being quite novicey over some hurdles and wandering around in front. That was a visually impressive performance and was deemed good enough to see him rated as a 139 animal by the handicapper, which seems harsh but it could be potentially accurate. Marsh Warbler then turned out 2 weeks later, this time in a very poor class 4 race at Sedgefield, yet again on soft ground. He was sent off as the 2/9 favourite and won accordingly, by 9 lengths, in what was another visually impressive performance as he jumped supremely and traveled like a dream before jogging away from them without being asked any questions. He's clearly a highly talented sort and it's yet to be seen how much further I can go but the trainer think a lot of him and after that race he said that Marsh Warbler is "the best three-year-old hurdler I've ever had; he's awesome". Pretty impressive comments from Ellison and he's obviously optimistic about his chances if he's throwing him in against horses of Grade 1 company, including the current first and second favourite's for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. It's yet to be seen how he'll react to running at a quicker tempo against better horses but I think he is worth taking a chance on as he has definitely not shown his best yet and could be anything, as could his main rivals here. The soft ground is a massive benefit to my selection, who will be even better if the ground keeps softening, and it's expected to be heavy ground come race time, perfect! None of the others are proven on ground this soft and Marsh Warbler will relish it. He also has his regular jumps jockey on board that has ridden him on all 3 starts over hurdles. He is Fearghal Davis, who I don't know much about but he has a 33% strike rate when riding for Brian Ellison with 9 wins from 27 runners and they also show a nice LSP of £30. The Ellison yard are bang in form of late with 11 winners from their last 40 runners, with many more placing, so they're clearly flying high of late and this is an ideal chance to get a big race win, assuming the horse is as good as I and the trainer think. He has a bit to find with the market leaders but everything is in position for him to make an almighty push at success. 8/1 looks a very big price to me and I had him down as a fair 5/1 shot but due to the strength of the top 2 in the market, I will only be playing with minimum stakes in the hope of an upset. If he doesn't win this, he'll win another big race this year, mark my words!

[cpo]

Jumps Racing 08/01/11 11.45 Punchestown Ad Idem 1pt win Like the chances of this one today if he can stay on his feet. Fell last time out where he was going well enough in a race won by Bostons Angel who has gone on to win a grade 1. Has form over 3miles where he was second to quito de le roque who finished behind bostons angel in that grade 1 race so stamina is assured. That's the doubt I have in the current fav in the race, Flat out. He is a very classy horse but you have to take his stamina for this trip on trust especially on the slow ground. Healys bar if showing his best form would have a chance but his last 2 runs have been very disappointing, albeit in better grade races than this one. The other one at the head of the betting Solstice Knight is coming back after a long break so might just need this race so therefore I am happy to take a chance with Ad Idem.