BBOTD: 7th Jan 2011

[RussP]

15.10 Lingfield 9 here for this Class 4 1m handicap and it looks a decent event. We have some nice types in this so I'm going to leave out the chance of a shock and therefore dismiss Ilie Nastase, Tiger Dream, Ensare and Expensive Problem. Kilburn also goes too as I think this race will be set up for something that comes from off the pace. Could It Be Magic has a chance on the back of its run lto but likely we'll see the bounce factor and I can't having this one at all, certainly not at 4's. This leaves 3 all of which faced each other lto. Copperwood had the run of the race and won't be able to confirm form with the other 2 underperformers lto, especially off 2lb higher. I'll have the other 2, Syrian and Charlie Smirke. The former has loads of potential but rather disappointed lto under a poor ride from Jamie Spencer. Couldn't settle but he still decide to hold it up last of all, its chance had gone after half a furlong. Won a claimer 3 starts ago but then had a troubled passage when a close up 4th over C&D nto behind the excellent Final Drive. Lto came that nightmare where it failed to settle but I expect much better here and 9/2 looks a big price if back to the form of a couple of starts back. The other, Charlie Smirke, also ran in that race where Syrian was 8th and slightly disappointed. However, I'm prepared to overlook that and conditions look better now. Eased 1lb by the handicapper is a positive as is stable form. Off a mark 3lb lower than last win, here over C&D. Record over C&D in this grade reads 1-1-4 and is 2 wins, 3 2nds from 9 starts at the track. With the lack of solid rivals, I'm happy to take the pair at combined odds of 7/4. Charlie Smirke, 1pt win @ 9/2 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD: 7th Jan 2011 2:40 Lingfield - Addwaitya - Back I need a winner to back into the winning thread so I'm going to go for the bombproof banker of the day. On ratings he quite simply cannot lose here. He is 28lbs well in against both of his rivals here and on that basis it would be an absolute travesty of he was to get beaten. He's currently trading between 3/10 and 1/4 on Betfair. I would be ecstatic if his SP ends up at either of those prices but I expect him to go off way shorter than that come race time 1pt win @ SP