brecki Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, I want to present my first system here on the forum and I developed a forcast system for yellow and red cards for the spanish Primera Division. I will play with many bookies as the odds for those special bets can be very different from bookie to bookie. There will be bets on or against send-off and asian card handicaps. The rules for asian card handicaps with Bet365 are: 1 point for a yellow card, 2 points for a red card 3 points for a double yellow card that leads to a send-off This will be a paper-trial at the moment ! There will be bets that are fixed before the kick-off and others that will be holded In-Play as long as they either get matched or be cancelled if a sending off appears before the bet gets matched. That is to make sure to get a bet placed in a market that hasn´t much liquidity. I try to publish the bets as early as possible but of course I have to know the name of the referee first before being able to calculate the predictions. The calculation is done by statistics about the teams on yellow and red cards and also by statistics about the referee´s behaviour. As we all know, there are shown many cards in spain, but it is quite interesting to see that some teams and referees produce more bookings than others. I will start with 100 Points - the number of points being placed depend on the probability of the prediction. So let´s see what happens, any questions and commentaries are welcome ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Here are the sending off qualifying selections for this weekend fixtures. Odds will follow as well as yellow card handicap bets. Red Card YES: Espanyol - Saragossa Stake 2 Points Malaga - Bilbao Stake 1 Point Levante - Valencia Stake 1 Point Red Card NO: La Coruna - Barcelona Stake 2 Points Mallorca - Almeria Stake 1 Point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Espanyol - Saragossa Stake 2 Points Odds 2,60 with Expekt Malaga - Bilbao Stake 1 Point Odds 2,94 with Betfair Levante - Valencia Stake 1 Point Odds 3,00 with Wiliam Hill Red Card NO: La Coruna - Barcelona Stake 2 Points Odds 1,41 with Betfair Mallorca - Almeria Stake 1 Point Odds still to come up Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: (rules: 1 point for a yellow card, 2 points for a red card and 3 points for a double yellow card that leeds to a send-off) La Coruna - Barcelona 7 Stake Stake 2 Points Odds 1,775 Malaga - Bilbao >6,5 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,725 Levante - Valencia >7,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 The Odds for Mallorca No Red Card will be added later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Mallorca no red card odd is 1,42 with Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Espanyol - Saragossa Stake 2 Points Odds 2,60 with Expekt :@ Malaga - Bilbao Stake 1 Point Odds 2,94 with Betfair :@ Levante - Valencia Stake 1 Point Odds 3,00 with Wiliam Hill :@ Red Card NO: La Coruna - Barcelona Stake 2 Points Odds 1,41 with Betfair :) Mallorca - Almeria Stake 1 Point 1,42 with Betfair :) Asian Card Handicaps with >Bet365: La Coruna - Barcelona 7 Stake Stake 2 Points Odds 1,775 :@ Malaga - Bilbao >6,5 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,725 :) Levante - Valencia >7,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 98,94 points Total staked 16,00 points Number of bets 10 Winning bets 5 Losing bets 5 Strike rate 50 % Yield -6,63% Profit (or Loss) -1,06 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card Predictions for the weekend: Sevilla - Espanyol YES Stake 2 Points Almeria - Real Madrid YES Stake 1 Point Odds and asian card handicaps still to come ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Sevilla - Espanyol Stake 2 Points Odds 2,94 with Betfair Almeria - Real Madrid Stake 1 Point Odds still to come Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Bilbao - Santander 5,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 Sevilla - Espanyol >7,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,825 Almeria - Real Madrid >6,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,825 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Sevilla - Espanyol Stake 2 Points Odds 2,94 with Betfair :@ Almeria - Real Madrid Stake 1 Point Odds 2,7 :@ Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Bilbao - Santander 5,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 :@ Sevilla - Espanyol >7,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,825 :@ Almeria - Real Madrid >6,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,825 :@ Unbelievable, all bets wrong. Has anyone seen what happened at Bilbao ??? The bet was already won when suddenly there appeared 5 yellow and a red card in the 90th minute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 90,94 points Total staked 24,00 points Number of bets 16 Winning bets 5 Losing bets 11 Strike rate 31,25 % Yield -37,75% Profit (or Loss) -9,06 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Not very much this week: Red Card YES: Valencia - Malaga Stake 1 Point Odds 3,05 with Betfair Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Valencia - Malaga >6,0 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Valencia - Malaga Stake 1 Point Odds 3,05 with Betfair :) Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Valencia - Malaga >6,0 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,85 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 94,69 points Total staked 27,00 points Number of bets 18 Winning bets 7 Losing bets 11 Strike rate 38,89 % Yield -19,67% Profit (or Loss) -5,31 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Levante - Getafe Stake 1 Point Odds to follow Malaga - Saragossa Stake 1 Point Odds to follow Osasuna - Real Madrid Stake 1 Point Odds to follow Red Card NO: Hercules - Barcelona Stake 1 Point Odds to follow Asian Card Handicaps with >Bet365: Levante - Getafe >6,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 Malaga - Saragossa >6 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,775 Mallorca - Gijon >5,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Levante - Getafe Stake 1 Point Odds 3,75 Malaga - Saragossa Stake 1 Point Odds 3,10 Osasuna - Real Madrid Stake 1 Point Odds 2,86 Red Card NO: Hercules - Barcelona Stake 1 Point Odds 1,39 Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Levante - Getafe >6,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 Malaga - Saragossa >6 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,775 Mallorca - Gijon >5,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Levante - Getafe Stake 1 Point Odds 3,75 :) Malaga - Saragossa Stake 1 Point Odds 3,10 :@ Osasuna - Real Madrid Stake 1 Point Odds 2,86 :@ (11 yellow cards !) Red Card NO: Hercules - Barcelona Stake 1 Point Odds 1,39 :@ Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Levante - Getafe >6,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,95 :) Malaga - Saragossa >6 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,775 :) Mallorca - Gijon >5,5 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,80 :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 95,94 points Total staked 35,00 points Number of bets 25 Winning bets 10 Losing bets 15 Strike rate 40,00 % Yield -11,60% Profit (or Loss) -4,06 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Sevilla - Malaga Stake 1 Point Odds to follow Asian Card Handicaps with >Bet365: Bilbao - Gijon 6,0 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,875 Real Madrid - San Sebastian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Sevilla - Malaga Stake 1 Point Odds 3,15 :@ Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Bilbao - Gijon 6,0 Stake 2 Points Odds 1,875 :) Real Madrid - San Sebastian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Starting bank 100,00 points Current bank 94,615 points Total staked 42,00 points Number of bets 30 Winning bets 12 Losing bets 18 Strike rate 40,00 % Yield -12,82% Profit (or Loss) -5,385 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Re: Yellow and Red Cards System on the Spanish first Division Red Card YES: Hercules - Saragossa Stake 1 Point Odds 3,30 with Betfair Asian Card Handicaps with Bet365: Gijon - Barcelona >5,0 Stake 1 Point Odds 1,775 Atl. Madrid - Valencia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.