jtw1 Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 Another of these ideas that has been swirling about in the brain-box for years so lets see if there's any substance . Only rules are that the 2 sides playing must be lying side-by-side in their league table and the selection will be the home team. Reasoning is that the home side will raise their game when playing a side who are just above or below them and to lose will place that side in front or further in front of them [ basically a mentality thing :tongue2] A paper trail until the end of the season [:hope] and will concentrate on the English Prem to L2 , Serie A , Spanish Primera ,Bundesliga and French 1st Div . One advantage is that the majority of the odds will be 2.0 or better so as long as the wins outnumber the losses a profit should be shown . Mon - 3rd Jan --------------- *CRYSTAL PALACE [23rd] v preston * [24th] 3pts difference , odds - 2.0 PORTSMOUTH [15th] v hull [16th] 0 pts diff , odds - 2.0 STOCKPORT [20th] v morecambe *[21st] 2pts diff , odds - 2.3 Tues - 4th Jan --------------- *CARDIFF [5th] v LEEDS #[4th] 1pt diff , odds - 2.1 * signifies a side who , according to Statto.com , are on a downward trend . # siginifies a side who are on an upward trend . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Get one up on the neighbours Well done with the tables Matthew :clap Unfortunately it doesn't make good reading as far as this 'system' is concerned . Basically unless it's exceptionally strong Home or Away sides there's not a lot of optimism ahead ...:\ However i'll cling onto the fact that the figures are between 1 and 3 positions in the table and we'll see how it goes after a few weeks , it's only a paper trail after all . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Get one up on the neighbours Will keep an eye on the Double chance [1X] and goal markets on these games . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Get one up on the neighbours Sortest system run ever !! After todays results , but mainly having a good look at Matthews tables again i can't see anything positive in trying to go on with this . THE END .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Get one up on the neighbours Oh no. It wasn't my intention to stiffle your creativity. I had a spare two mins and knew I could give you a lot of info with very little effort. I didn't know what the answer would be when I ran the query. I'm a huge fan of backtesting and making sure that each and every bead of sweat we exert is done so seeking a true edge over the bookies. There are too many threads of finding a selection criteria and then assuming that if you find future matches that match that criteria at odds greater than the strike rate their "system" requires, profit is a certainty. It is simply untrue. You need a view of historic odds to fully understand the true worth of a "system". For what it is worth, when a single league pos difference is observed: Overall Results RETURNS STRIKE RATEYIELD HWDRAWNO BETSHWDRAWHWDRAWOVERALL-£105.35-£94.91-£141.941,791 44.44%28.25%27.30%-5.88%-5.30%-7.93% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Get one up on the neighbours Oh no. It wasn't my intention to stiffle your creativity. I had a spare two mins and knew I could give you a lot of info with very little effort. I didn't know what the answer would be when I ran the query. I'm a huge fan of backtesting and making sure that each and every bead of sweat we exert is done so seeking a true edge over the bookies. There are too many threads of finding a selection criteria and then assuming that if you find future matches that match that criteria at odds greater than the strike rate their "system" requires, profit is a certainty. It is simply untrue. You need a view of historic odds to fully understand the true worth of a "system". For what it is worth, when a single league pos difference is observed: Overall Results RETURNS STRIKE RATEYIELD HWDRAWNO BETSHWDRAWHWDRAWOVERALL-£105.35-£94.91-£141.941,791 44.44%28.25%27.30%-5.88%-5.30%-7.93% Not a problem Matthew , no creativity was stifled i can assure you ;) I'd rather someone took the time to backtest, if they have the tools to do so , than spend a good few months painstakingly discovering that a 'system' is a failure . Cheers again mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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