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Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011


bowles10

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Cheltenham 12.20 The 1st race looks a difficult race to find the winner unless there is something decent from one of the big yards. 12.55 Only 3 previous runnings of this race and the favourite has yet to oblige, in fact, the 3rd or 4th in the betting has won all 3. Oscar Whiskey was well touted for a race last week and could be fit enough to play a part however Karabak, Any Given day and Celestial halo all ran against each other at the previous meeting here in the Relkeel hurdle finishing in that order. Karabak now with a victory under its belt at last is the one to beat and again, i am not looking to play in an open race. back with the others....

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Saturday Cheltenham 2.35 (2m 5f) AGE:A range of ages has won the race, 6, 7, 8(x2), 9(x3), 10(x3) & 11. KEY AGE RANGE: 8 to 10 - 8/11 WEIGHT: I have looked at 2 weight ranges for this race. 11st & under - 7/11 11st 4lb & under - 9/11 PRICE: 10/1 or under - 10/11 COURSE: Previous Cheltenham form - 10/11 Previous course winner - 5/10 OTHER STATS: Horses ran within 35 days of the race - 9/11 Debuts - 0/11 Favs - 2/11 2-4 runs this season - 10/11 Won this season - 6/11 4th or better this season - 10/11 Previous Cheltenham form is key to this track, remove Pickamus, quito de tresor The weight range of 11st 4lb and under is also taken into consideration which removes Taranis, Hey big spender, Tartak, imsingingtheblues, knockara beau, mahogany blaze (will come back to these later as not sure !) Stick with those horses that have ran 2-4 times this season and 4th or better on one of those runs (can’t buy time ruined both of these trends last year but they still stand out). Removes Caroles Legacy, Cant buy time, Patman du charmil The key age range is between 8 and 10, so removes Five Dream, Mister McGoldrick This leaves 2 horses in Door Boy and Moon Over Miami, so lets look at those 2. Neither have ran within 35 days of the race which could be down to the recent weather conditions to be honest with so many meetings falling to the weather. Door boy ran in the >Paddy Power as a 40/1 chance and was hampered 4 out and was pulled up. Fell in the Jewson at the festival last year and this one doesn’t inspire me too much to warrant a selection to be honest. Moon over Miami wins have all come over shorter and only once above 2m. Does not look up to this class these days and can also be overlooked. So let’s look at those trends which perhaps can be broken and the ones i will look at are Caroles Legacy who is returning to chasing from hurdling and off 141 looks to have some improvement still to come. The horse will like the trip as stays further and is an interesting entry. Hey big spender would prefer it softer and if it goes that way would be a bet for me, fell at the last in the Hennessy when lying in 3rd place, ran a blinder that day and likes it round here. Knockara Beau has ran its best races at this distance over the years and good to see it back at the trip, has won off 1lb lower than this so can be expected to have a good run. Bets Caroles Legacy 9/2 10pts win >Bet365 Hey big Spender 8/1 10pts win >Bet365 Knockara Beau 10/1 10pts win >Bet365

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 12:20 Cheltenham - MASTER BEAU @ 50/1 E-W Hills Big price here for a horse that has showed promise here at the track. First time was in a bumper where he was beaten around 10 lengths into 4th by GHIZAO who has gone on to better things the 2nd 3rd and 5th all been winners since abeit in weaker races than this but i does look decent form. Debut over hurdles lto here at Cheltenham was 4th again looks promising too the 5th RICHMOND ran yesterday and came 2nd where first 2 where 24 lengths clear. Both those races the selection traveled well for a long way and seemed to get up the hill with no problem and was in noway going backwards. The extra distance today should suit and the last run should bring him on as it was first run for over a year. This is a decent race with some classy horses but 50/1 looks massive here for a horse open improvement.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 I've had a quick look and have 3 for tomorrow, putting them on tonight as I don't expect to be around tomorrow. I've been expecting better from Knockara Beau (2.35pm) for a while, but have seen signs of him coming good lately, especially LTO at course against the brilliant Midnight Chase, and feel he's about right, as Bowlesy says above, conditions seem right too, I'm not convinced he's a 3m+ one at present. Can't help but go back to Reve De Sivola (2.00) again too, especially after the last one, been following all of Nick Williams for a while now and still anticipating continued improvement from Reve. Last one for me on Saturday is Salden Licht at Exeter (2.15), I've been following Salden since the November Handicap a couple of years ago, still rate him and expecting improvement over timber. Alan King's have certainly improved generally this year, though I have trouble figuring out where and when. Lastly, though I won't be backing him, wouldn't Blazing Bailey be absolutely chucked in off 133 in the 130pm race? He was winning championship races off of 30lbs higher just a few years ago and at 9y/o tomorrow, he's hardly past it if they've figured out the key to him. Chartreux is interesting in the 3.10 at Cheltenham. The pick of all the Pipe horses by Scu, he showed promise last year before a bit of a disappointment at the Festival. If fulfilling his earlier promise.... Good luck everyone, hope you all have a very happy and prosperous new year!

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Trainer Roger Charlton has just the one runner at Cheltenham in the last, the pick has had 2 runs and 2 wins and he's looked a nice future prospect, the trip and the ground will not be a problem and Paddy Brennan is going for the treble in this N/H flat race. Not sure on his price but if he's around 7/2 or 4/1 that makes good value in my book. 3:45 Cheltenham - ''KEYS'' Danger could come form - Kuilsriver and Daryl Jacob. Best of luck in your Day.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 3.10 Cheltenham - King's Legacy (5/1 PP) Only time has failed to be placed in 5 career starts so far was when running out at Taunton last season when looking the likely winner. Decent return to action behind Grands Crus at Cheltenham, should come on for the run and shaped that day as if further would suit and with Ryan Mahon taking off a useful 5lbs I don't think the 5/1 will be around to long.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 3:10 Cheltenham - JUNIOR @ 10/1 E-W Hills Ran a great race here lto over fences when 9 length 3rd to the front running MIDNIGHT CHASE who won again next time. That race was ran at a decent pace and not many where left in it turning for home, JUNIOR was up there all the way and finished 20 lengths clear of the 4th. Back over hurdles today shouldn't be a problem and similar tactics of that previous run should give him a great chance.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 hey lads I will be at cheltenham tomorrow for the racing courtesey of a former jockey know well giving me some free tickets :) quite fancy caroles legacy keys and i like oscar whiskey or tarabak need to read up some more tomorrow as I am no expert like the rest of you here.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Sport Horse Racing Event 12.20 CHELTEMHAM Selection ON HIS OWN (Each-way) Strength 2/10 Date 01/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 29.00 Reasoning Trainer does well in these races and this double bumper winer could turn out to be decent for the wyiles. Jock and trainer seem to combine well. 28/1 seems very big and is worth an e/w investment imo. Sport Horse Racing Event 1.30 CHELTENHAM Selection JOE LIVELY (Each-way) Strength 2/10 Date 01/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 21.00 bog 25's with sj Reasoning Long time since a win but slipped down the weights loves the track and has four wins can run very well in this for the Tizzards has the blinkers on and is a strong e/w shout for me. Sport Horse Racing Event 2.35 CHELTENHAM Selection PATMAN DU CHARMIL (Each-way) Strength 1/10 Date 01/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Victor Chandler @ 67.00 Reasoning Put this one up lto and it was very poor but will have another bash at todays massive price (160 on bf taken) on this front runner who went very well in this in 08. Trainer can produce surprises in these big handicaps. Sport Horse Racing Event 3.10 CHELTENHAM Selection ACCORDING TO PETE (Each-way) Strength 2/10 Date 01/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 51.00 Reasoning Long time since win but has some good form slipping down the weights and although not won at the track has gone well at it has decent e/w chances with 4 places being paid

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Sport Horse Racing Event 2.15 EXETER Selection HUNTERVIEW Strength 3/10 Date 01/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 11.00 Reasoning Pipe string now starting to fire this horse is better than two runs have produced this term should go well for young danny cook. Sport Horse Racing Event 2.50 EXETER Selection LAUSTRA BAD Strength 4/10 Date 01/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 10.00 Reasoning Another pipe horse for me. Has been in better form last two run and looks ready to strike after long losing run.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 2:00 Cheltenham Ranjobaie 0.5pts EW - 40/1 (Sportingbet) Ranjobaie is an interesting debutant chaser here. Previously with Nicky Henderson but now with Venetia Williams. Was a smart novice hurdler, rated 136, arguably unlucky not to win a grade three handicap hurdle at Sandown in March last year behind Red Harbour. Finished a close second to Menorah on his hurdling debut which is some stand-out form, this was over two miles on good ground. Fell when looking the winner next time out on heavy ground, and was then disappointing on soft ground. Back on G/S here and over a trip that shouldn't be a problem the horse could spring a shock. A lot of smart novices to beat but a few of the principles have questions to answer and 40/1 looks too big for this one.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 2:15 Exeter: Alfie Spinner 1pt win 11/1 Stan James & Karasenir 1pt win 15/2 Extrabet Alfie Spinner has won over course and distance and handles the prevailing going, and as a result looks overpriced at 11/1. His trainer Nick Williams is capable of getting a horse ready first time out. Karasenir won a Listed hurdle at Kempton and has also picked up another prize during his short career despite not jumping that well. With a couple of months off and presumably a little more schooling he should not be overburdened off this mark.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 12:55 Cheltenham Celestial Halo 3pts - 4/1 (WH) Any Given Day 1pt saver - 9/2 (VC) Nicholls sent out Celestial Halo last time with the priority being a 'clear round' and that's what he got, the horse probably ran better than expected after a poor attempt at chasing. Comes here with a big run expected and a pull in weights with Karabak gives this horse a great chance. Barizan should set a decent pace with Celestial able to sit in behind. I don't expect Karabak to be able to give the weight away but wouldn't lay him at the current prices either. Oscar Whiskey is interesting but far too short for what he has achieved. Any Given Day is a tad short, isn't a reliable jumper but does have stamina in abundance and will be a saver bet. Looked tailed off at one point last time out but made up great ground up the hill, got in front but was then outbattled by Karabak and AP. The remainder look a little outclassed and I think the 4's about Celestial look quite generous.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Happy New Year everyone. 12.20 Cheltenham - On His Own - 20/1 Skybet 1pt e/w Owner thinks very highly of this one and one to watch in 2011. Was 28/1 earlier this morning now down to a best price of 20/1. Open race 2.15 Exeter - Salontyre - 14/1 Bet365 1pt e/w Exeter specialist and goes well with the jockey. Definately an improver and at 14/1 has a decent e/w shout if some of the principals have an off day

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Couple more for me today... 12.55 Cheltenham - Duke Of Lucca (11/1 VC) Would have a very good chance on his run behind Peddlars Cross at Aintree at the end of last season, where he would have possibly won were he not hampred 3 out, not much gone right since returning to action this season, but 4th last time out was a step in the right direction and I think the drop back in trip is a positive as his best performances as a novice were over this trip. Could surprise at a nice price. 2.00 Cheltenham - Mr Thriller (5/1 Betfred) Looked to be going best of all when departing 2 out in a race won by Time For Rupert here, that one has come out and franked the form in no uncertain terms since. Can't have Medermit on his performances thus far over fences, Sway looks vastly under priced on what she has achieved so far and Hell's Bay and Reve De Sivola look held on the form of the Time For Rupert race. Bigger threat may be Henderson's Master Of The Hall who could potentially develop into a very smart chaser having had only one run over hurdles, but I think that if that fall hasn't dented Mr Thriller's confidence and he puts in a clear round today he should win.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 15.20 Fakenham A bare 8 for this 3m handicap hurdle and, to me, there looks a few that won't be fully suited by the trip. One that will and is carrying the EW money of mine is Along Came Rosie. In its short career, had been campaigned exclusive at 2m/2m1f, including its reappearance when running a decent race in midfield. Stepped up to 2m4f nto at Newcastle and won well, staying on past beaten rivals. Everything points to this one appreciating a further 4f and off only 7lb higher, has every chance of going close today. I'll play it a bit safe and take the EW on offer here. Along Came Rosie, 0.5pts EW @ 8/1 >William Hill BOG

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 1220 Ch: 85 Bobs Worth, 84 Habbie Simpson, 84 Golden Chieftain 1240 Ex: 98 Gunna Be A Devil, 92 Mr Hudson, 76 Gortenbuie 1.15 Ex: No Ratings over 70 1200 Fk: 79 Lap Of Honour, 72 Aviador, 72 Wicklewood 1.05 Fk: 80 Ultimate Quest, 61 Mister Fantastic, 45 Nosecond Chance. Preview; Three meetings and 5 races to plough through, by far the best is obviously the 2m4f Neptune at Cheltenham. Bobs Worth beat a decent field at Kempton without too much fuss, his jumping needs sharpening up but should improve for the trip too. Astrocad has been taking on the best of late and this is a real step back down in class so he could be dangerous. Habbie Simpson won under his penalty at Warwick but it wasnt a great race so this should test him a lot more and Easter Meteor promises to build on his fourth behind Frascati Park. At Exeter Mr Hudson will be a warm fav to win the opener, he beat Madison Du Berlais at Wincanton and looks the type to improve again, he gives weight away to one or to promising types so I dont think it will be that easy. Gunner Be A Devil finished close up at Towcester last time which gives him a chance and Accordingtolawrence won an ordinary race on heavy ground last time and this will be difficult with the penalty. Filbert and Lord Liath from powerful stables are also in the mix. The other race there is dreadful and Bermuda Boy looks the one that may improve enough to win. Fakenham isnt blessed with class, two divisions of a maiden hurdle in which the first is quite tight on the figures, Lap Of Honour has form from 2009 and if back to his best could run well while I quite liked the way Aviador ran when a massive price behind Jetnova, this is more his grade and should go close. Sire De Grugy is fav but will need to improve from his debut when slammed by Bobs Worth, this is a step down in class though so I can see why he has his supporters. In the last race Ultimate Quest has a chance to put a very poor run last time behind him, before that ran a promising second to one of the Henderson horses, that form will be good enough here although the step down in trip isnt ideal. Bets; 1200 Fak: Aviador 1pt EW (5/1 WH) 1220 Ch: Bobs Worth 1pt (11/4 WH)

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 I am hoping for a good start to the new year, i wish ye all a happy new year and a prosperous one!! Sir Vincent - Tramore 12:45 Looks to have a very nice opportunity to win today in my opinion. Didnt look all that eager on its last 2 runs, did not find much for pressure but should strip fitter today and Willie Mullins will get a win out of this horse soon, he is a masterful trainer afterall. It is a rather weak race , if it could reproduce its 2009 bumper form it should win this hands down, it has won over this trip of 2m already also. 1 Point Win @ 2/1 (>PaddyPower) Best Odds Guaranteed

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 2:00 Cheltenham: Sang Bleu 1pt win 20/1 Victor Chandler With the bookies going about 5/1 the field there would appear no stand out runner. It's interesting that Paul Nicholls lets Sang Bleu take his chance in this Grade 2 when surely he could have picked off a small novice mid week somewhere. Was more than useful over hurdles and has a decent jumping pedigree. No tongue tie today, and every chance Sang Bleu is a lot better than he ran last time. He will need to be.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Happy new year everybody :ok Cheltenham 12.55 Oscar Whisky 0.25pt win - 5/2 Any Given Day 0.75pt win - 9/2 Any Given Day ran really well lto when he looked well beaten, but ran on strongly to chase Karabak. On 4lbs better terms he can reverse form. Celestial Halo gets 4lbs from them on his 3rd, but I think he's on the downgrade now. Any Given Day should have more to offer. Saving on the Henderson fav, who is unexposed. Cheltenham 1.30 Richard's Sundance 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Won off just 2lbs lower and needed his last outing when yard wasn't in form. Harry Skelton rode him that day and handicapper has dropped him 4lbs for his latest start, which could prove crucial here. Back to form, he has a chance and the price is generous enough to be tried.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 2:35 Cheltenham: Can't Buy Time 1pt win 11/1 Victor Chandler Could just be the time and place. He won this race off a pound lower last year and came in to that race showing average form. Seems not to run two races the same. Perfectly capable of winning this, if and the 'if' tempers enthusiasm a touch, it's a going day. At a double figure price worth a small risk.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Cheltenham 3.10 Chartreux 0.75pt EW - 15/2 Yard in grand form and this one looks similar type to Grands Crus. Ran in the Albert Bartlett, but things didn't go his way. Races off 132 here with Ashkazar put in the race to be top weight, so this fella is off just 10-6. I think he is a very well handicapped horse and if ready (which he should be considering the connections), he should go close today.

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 As BOWLES has stated many times the key to Cheltenham is finding the horses who have proven form there. With that in mind here's a quick analysis of the 1.30 - JOE LIVELY - 4 wins but has lost form over the past couple of seasons . MY WILL - 2 wins , don't let the fact that he has been unp in his last 3 runnings here , they were all in the Gold Cup !! Hasn't won since 2006 but is 7lb's lower today [jockey takes off a further 7lb] and has won twice [ also 2nd twice] when making a seasonal debut. MALJIMAR - 1 win and has ran well in defeat in many other course runs . Don't let the fact that he has fallen on his last 2 runs put you off as they were both over the National fences. Has never won beyond 2m5f and Cl 3 . CHARACTER BUILDING - 1 win but that last run , when tailed off here , and the fact he is still pretty high in the weights [imo] puts me off. BROOKLYN BROWNIE - one unp run here and another who's carrying enough today .Would prefer firmer going . THE SLIOTAR - one 3rd from 3 runs over the hurdles course . This will be only his 3rd run over fences at the now ripe[ish] age of ten. Bit of a dark horse making his seasonal debut but not for me , beaten fair and square last time out in a CL 3. KNOWHERE - 2 wins but plenty of well beaten and PU here as well . 13 yo now and there must be others with a better chance today. RICHARDS SUNDANCE - 1 unp run here and prefers mud. BUFFALO BOB - Never ran here and this is a jump up in class and the weights [8lb up ] from last win , may prefer softer going to show his best. BLAZING BAILEY - 2 wins and always gets round. [never ran over Fences here however] .Not been seen since the end of October which is a concern but has won after long lay-offs before. Well in the weights with THE SLIOTAR who beat him only by a quarter of a length last season. LEAD ON - 2 wins but has ran disappointingly since his win in the DIPPER Chase on this day in 2008 .Been tried over hurdles /fences at various distances . DASHING GEORGE - 1 pu run here and would prefer softer going. IL DUCE - 13 runs but only one 2nd place is his best finish , however he drops to to a very favourable mark today . Has won over 3m but has been kept almost exclusively to 21f since . ETXALAR - UR in one and run here and this should be too much for the Scottish raider , won a Cl 3 at Carlisle . VICTORIAS GROOM - 1 pu here and looks outclassed on ground a bit on the quick side for it. OFFICIER DE RESERVE - 3 failed attempts here and only won at CL 3 . QHILMAR - 3 runs and a best placed 2nd , so not too bad . 5th beaten under 5l LTO over C/D bodes well but that was an Amateurs event and he has to improve more imo . Stake 6pts MY WILL @ 22/1 Stake 3pts BLAZING BAILEYS @ 14/1 Stake 2pts IL DUCE @ 25/1

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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011

As BOWLES has stated many times the key to Cheltenham is finding the horses who have proven form there. With that in mind here's a quick analysis of the 1.30 - JOE LIVELY - 4 wins but has lost form over the past couple of seasons . MY WILL - 2 wins , don't let the fact that he has been unp in his last 3 runnings here , they were all in the Gold Cup !! Hasn't won since 2006 but is 7lb's lower today [jockey takes off a further 7lb] and has won twice [ also 2nd twice] when making a seasonal debut. MALJIMAR - 1 win and has ran well in defeat in many other course runs . Don't let the fact that he has fallen on his last 2 runs put you off as they were both over the National fences. Has never won beyond 2m5f and Cl 3 . CHARACTER BUILDING - 1 win but that last run , when tailed off here , and the fact he is still pretty high in the weights [imo] puts me off. BROOKLYN BROWNIE - one unp run here and another who's carrying enough today .Would prefer firmer going . THE SLIOTAR - one 3rd from 3 runs over the hurdles course . This will be only his 3rd run over fences at the now ripe[ish] age of ten. Bit of a dark horse making his seasonal debut but not for me , beaten fair and square last time out in a CL 3. KNOWHERE - 2 wins but plenty of well beaten and PU here as well . 13 yo now and there must be others with a better chance today. RICHARDS SUNDANCE - 1 unp run here and prefers mud. BUFFALO BOB - Never ran here and this is a jump up in class and the weights [8lb up ] from last win , may prefer softer going to show his best. BLAZING BAILEY - 2 wins and always gets round. [never ran over Fences here however] .Not been seen since the end of October which is a concern but has won after long lay-offs before. Well in the weights with THE SLIOTAR who beat him only by a quarter of a length last season. LEAD ON - 2 wins but has ran disappointingly since his win in the DIPPER Chase on this day in 2008 .Been tried over hurdles /fences at various distances . DASHING GEORGE - 1 pu run here and would prefer softer going. IL DUCE - 13 runs but only one 2nd place is his best finish , however he drops to to a very favourable mark today . Has won over 3m but has been kept almost exclusively to 21f since . ETXALAR - UR in one and run here and this should be too much for the Scottish raider , won a Cl 3 at Carlisle . VICTORIAS GROOM - 1 pu here and looks outclassed on ground a bit on the quick side for it. OFFICIER DE RESERVE - 3 failed attempts here and only won at CL 3 . QHILMAR - 3 runs and a best placed 2nd , so not too bad . 5th beaten under 5l LTO over C/D bodes well but that was an Amateurs event and he has to improve more imo . Stake 6pts MY WILL @ 22/1 Stake 3pts BLAZING BAILEYS @ 14/1 :loon Stake 2pts IL DUCE @ 25/1
Nice start to the New Year :cheers:cheers:cheers
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Re: Jumps Racing 1st Jan 2011 Reve De Sivola 2.00 Cheltenham 6-1 bet365 win bet Has a chase win at this course already, a grade 1 winner over hurdles and a fine 2nd to Peddlers Cross at grade 1 level with Rite Of Passage in 3rd. Looks to be the class horse in the race and can take the step up to grade 2 at chase level in it's stride. Diamond Harry took a big race recently for connections and I can see this adding to that success. Last win and the fine 2nd in grade 1 were both over this trip of 2m5f. I'd make this favourite.

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