Flat Racing; 28/12/10

[Lars]

12:35 Lingfield Aware this may be called off, I reckon it’ll be OK but we’ll see. My selection in this race I have posted here before, when I wrote this.

“It’s interesting that Rubenstar makes a reappearance back at this track, one traditionally that he has done very well at, and he could go very well with Jamie Spencer on board. Rubenstar has won 3 out of his 6 starts on the Lingfield all-weather, and has placed on two other occasions. He has been running dreadfully as of late in handicaps, especially when running at Wolverhampton. What’s interesting is that he’s hardly ever ran well there, which could lead to an assumption that he just doesn’t like the track. His Lingfield form couldn’t be any more different, he usually runs a good race, travelling powerfully before either going very close, or getting up on the line. He did this back in January off 4lbs higher than he runs off today. A similar performance today would see him right in the mix. He’s also run decent races over this course and distance off 8lbs higher, so he seems quite well in today. Although his last good run (at Lingfield, obviously!) was in a claimer, it was quite a competitive one and it wasn’t run to suit Rubenstar regardless. He was staying on well at the end and shows he still has some ability”

His run that day was pretty encouraging, and looked to have every chance 1f out. He just ran out of gas in the closing stages and ended up finishing 5^th, but a creditable one at that. Rubenstar is now 3lbs lower than that run, which to me is a big positive, and also fairly lenient. He ran well up to his mark that time and I think those 3lbs could be what he needs. He was last seen running at Southwell, tackling the surface for the first time. It wasn’t the worst of efforts, but it was over an inadequate 6f. He plodded on well enough, but may not have handled the surface too well, as well as it being on the sharp side. Now back to his ideal conditions, Rubenstar can take advantage of this. Now back to 7f at Lingfield, (as mentioned above, his record here is very good). And now 3lbs lighter than when running a very decent race in November, he should be able to go very well. Decided not to go EW personally but if you want to at this price, I don’t blame you. Rubenstar; 2pts Win @ 15/2 William Hill (bog) ---- 13:10 Lingfield I wrote this over a month ago, for the selection for this race , Pilgrim Dancer.

“Pilgrim Dancer has ran poorly since moving to Patrick Morris but seems to have fallen to a reasonable mark now and has had excuses on the majority of his runs, and is worth a go under a very talented 7lb claimer. Ex-Irish performer, who won well over 5f in maiden company as a 2yo, beating the very decent Ballydoyle runner Alfred Nobel when doing so. Has proved to be frustrating after posting this victory, and has moved to Patrick Morris in this country since. His form figures are hardly inspiring, reading 86730, but there are excuses for most of these runs. His latest effort came at Southwell on his first try at the fibresand surface, so that could explain the poor run. His third, coming at Newcastle was his best effort for a while and showed he still retains some ability. He was backed with some hefty bets that day, and came for late support (10/1 to 15/2). He perhaps didn’t handle the heavy ground that day either, but stayed on well enough and that performance suggested he should be able to find a race somewhere down the line, especially now running off 8lbs lighter. His other three performances, off substantially higher marks than he runs off today (14lbs at it’s peak), weren’t bad runs in the grand scheme of things. His run at Wolverhampton in April off 78 was quite encouraging and he was only beaten by less than 7 lengths. He now runs off 64, so he has a chance if performing to a similar level today in what looks quite a weak race.”

That day he ran OK, into 7^th, but wasn’t too far behind the winner (4 lengths). He’s now running off 56, which is an exceptionally low mark for a horse that had his level of 2yo ability. There are other reasons why I’m backing him today. Firstly, he’s stepped up to 7f. He ran at this trip twice when a 2yo, those runs coming in listed company and in a very decent nursery. His second run at 7f was quite encouraging actually, and although he retains only a small amount of that ability, it shows to me that he will probably stay the 7f trip. His last two runs at Lingfield over 6f, he’s been staying on at the end, getting outpaced during the early part of the race. He was last seen finishing very fast over 6f, and having been the first off the bridle, it was a decent effort, especially as he was forced very wide that day. From that run, as well as his prior effort at Lingfield, 7f could well be his ideal trip. His trainer, Patrick Morris is in decent form, with a few placed efforts recently and a couple of winners this month. James Sullivan takes off a very handy 3lbs, and is not badly drawn. He should be able to get a better passage through, and the pace of the 7f race should mean he’s less likely to get left behind. Interesting connections persevere and he’s worth another chance in my view. This price may drift in the morning etc before being backed in again. I’m taking this price now as might struggle to get on in the morning, and by the looks of Betfair, won’t be much bigger later tonight. Pilgrim Dancer; 1.5pt EW @ 14/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing; 28/12/10 12:35 Lingfield - Spinning Ridge - 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (VC) A large priced selection here but one that warrants a lot of respect on these terms and has thrown up wins before on the back of seemingly terrible recent form. However, he's now back to a mark that he has been competitive off and has won from 2lbs higher. His last 2 runs were off the back of a 6 month break and he should strip much fitter for having had them. He came last on both occasions but has won twice after similar results and like most lower grade handicappers, usually picks and chooses what day he'll turn up on. His customary blinkers have returned having been fitted with cheekpieces on the last 2 occasions, yet another interesting move by his trainer, Ron Harris. I always keep an eye on Harris' results and although he hasn't had many winners of late, his charges have been running quite well, so I'm hoping this fellow is out to break the recent trend and actually win. He has went in at 50/1 and 12/1, so winning at decent prices isn't unknown and the drop to an awful class 6 contest could bring this 5 year old back to his optimum levels of performance. The return to Lingfield would be a positive for me too, he has run well here on a number of occasions and also won here over a mile, although off 13lbs lower, but he did place in a class 5 event over 1m here off 2lbs higher. His form at Lingfield reads ; 0-1-2-5-3. They're very good results for a horse who'd be considered very inconsistent and rarely runs so consistently at any track. 4 of those runs where over a mile and I think he's much better suited to running on the back of a slow pace, which should see the return to 7f work in his favour. He has a decent turn of foot, one which could cause bother in a field where many of the horses like to race from behind, Spinning Ridge does too on occasion but he's tactically versatile and has run very well from the front many times, it could pay dividends to race handy here. His draw in stall 9 is good too and he could get a chance to dictate the pace from that position, should David Probert choose to do so. Probert has ridden him on many occasion, including 2 of his wins and many other good performances. He's a jockey I really rate and he, like the horse, is prone to the odd big priced winner. Hopefully this happens again here today at odds of 20/1, which are absolutely massive in my opinion. He'd be no more than 10/1 in my book and I could make a case for his odds being even shorter than that. It's an awful race, wide open and very winnable. I believe that Spinning Ridge justifies pretty large each way stakes as he's most certainly the value bet of the race. I think he'll place at least, assuming he's out to try and actually turns up as he has done in the past. This may be a risk as he has blown up on many an occasion but I think it's one worth taking. There's a lot going for the horses here today and the price is simply too good to refuse. He should run well, really well if things go as I expect.