BBOTD 27th December

[Lars]

14:25 Southwell Quick enough write-up here, but Almahaza has had a run back from an absence, and I think now he should strip much fitter than on his previous effort at Kempton, and he will be able to run a big race over his ideal conditions. 5lb higher than his last win, which came at course/distance back in March 2009, he has never run a bad race at Southwell, and has been especially consistent at this sort of trip, winning twice, placing three times, and finishing fourth on the other two occasions. Interestingly, there are notable excuses for both unplaced efforts. The first, he was running over a trip of 1m3f, a fair bit further than his usual mile trip. He was in the process of running a big race, before not getting a clear run for a fair portion of the closing stages. He still plodded on to be 4th but would have been much closer without this. The second time, it was an Amatuer riders race, and his jockey came him a much too positive ride from the front, he was given the hurry up far too early and was headed fairly easily. This sort of style doesn’t suit the horse, and he needs to be buried in midfield. Prior to his last run at Kempton, he had been off the track since March. Whether there had been a problem I’m not so sure, but his return effort wasn’t the best, and will need to bounce back. However, he has never ever run a good race at Kempton, and obviously dislikes the track or surface. That, and the absence, make that run very excusable. He should strip much fitter for that run, and has in the past, only taken one run to get into shape. He was off for a year in 2008, and made a poor re-appearance run at Wolverhampton, never getting into the race. He then followed up by a tidy victory, which was over this Course and Distance. Connections could be aiming for a similar sort of return. I still think he’s a couple of lbs in-front of the handicapper, and was only just held over these conditions off 1lb lower in December 2009. He was also running off 1lb higher when running well over that extended trip (mentioned earlier), so I don’t think he’s ridiculously in the handicappers grip here today. He’s drawn fairly well, and should be able to get his ideal positioning in midfield. Neil Chalmers gets on well with the horse, and here at Southwell, he’s won on him twice. He can obviously get a decent tune out of him when running here. Trainer hasn’t had a winner in 2010 which is a slight concern, but this trainer never really has too many runners anyway. (Trainer only had 12 on the AW this year). This horse seems to be his most consistent, and he’s hardly run in 2010 anyway! At odds of 14/1, he’s worth a very decent bet in my view, this horse absolutely loves Southwell, especially at this mile trip. Although his last win was off 5lbs less, he’s run very close off this sort of mark. This isn’t the greatest of races, and he’ll strip much fitter today than last time. He’s 1/1 on his second race back after a prolonged break. I think he’s more of an 8/1 shot, and are really keen on his chances! Almahaza; EW @ 14/1 William Hill (bog)

[torn up slip]

Re: BBOTD 27th December Excellent write up Lars and I have to say I agree with you for the most part about him enjoying Southwell and the fact he should have come on for a run lto. He does tend to. Where I disagree with you though is his current weight being within his reach. 7lbs higher than his last winning mark. I think that could just prove a tad too much. Although I do take into account you are putting him up each way and I will probably back him myself e/w tomorrow as im going to the meeting. A much safer bet though I feel to be Verluga. Had been running pretty poorly prior to a quite pleasing closing 3rd over C&D lto and with the additional help of a further 2lb drop, plus the refitting of blinkers, couple with the fact there are very big question marks over the 3 horses ahead of him in the betting (Bentley is a very poor horse who is impossible to predict and Kielty's folly 1 from 29) I appreciate these horses are all much of a muchness and seem to take it in turns to win and as such I am always looking for a horse that seems to be finally being in the mood to put a run in coupled with a weight drop. Weight in particular I find to be absolutely critical in all weather racing as-by and large- the very nature of it none of these horses can be classed as progressive imo. Verluga 1pt win 8/1 hills BOG