NCFCRulz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Evenin all, Thought I would spend the afternoon looking at 0-0 criteria and statistics, and as such have attempted to devise a system which will hopefully draw out those 0-0 games where there is a value bet compared to the statistical chance of the game being 0-0 based on spreadsheet forumla. (Minimum price for a 0-0 lay = 1.1) All odds will be in decimal form, and markets where the games will come from are: English Premiership English Championship English League One English League Two Spanish La Liga, French Ligue 1, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga. Obviously just paper trading these atm. Having a starting bank of 100 points, and Stake/Liability will be set to 10% of the nearest 10pts (10pts starting) This is all new, so I have no idea if it will work, however combining my statistical prowess with my Mathematics degree, I hope I can come up with something special! ;) Obviously if the system works, there will be a lot of tweaking along the way! Being a poker player I also understand that a system like this which returns a positive result AT LEAST 90% of the time, requires thousands of games for it to be proven to be a winning system. Hoping for an ROI of 5% in the long run. Finally, as Betfair prices fluctuate fairly often for the big leagues, the markets above will be checked daily for all forthcoming fixtures. This means that there may be a fixture announced for 1st January on 27th December, and then another a few days later on 31st December. All Profits will take into account Betfairs 5% Commision! GL me! Current Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic - Lay 0-0 @ 10.0 for 10pts Bank - 100pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 Punt :welcome to Punters Lounge, NCFCRulz (Notts County???) Good luck with your system. But a word of warning.... laying 0-0 has been tried many times before, usually without success. But if you have a good statistical selection system, then who knows :ok BTW... a word of advice.... you are not supposed to edit posts which contain your selections. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 Punt Cheers Buddy :) If can get a 95% strike rate then we should double bank every 200 bets sticking to betting 10% of bank. Time will tell! Sorry for edit, was to edit main bulk of the first post, and not the pick :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 Punt Another bet cropped up for 26/12 Current Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic - Lay 0-0 @ 10.0 for 10pts 26/12/10 - Blackburn Rovers Vs Stoke City - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.1 for 10pts Bank - 100pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 Punt Nice to see that both games are currently avoiding the weather problems! :) No further additions atm, althought Hibernian Vs Aberdeen would qualify IF the odds reach the 1.1 threshold for Backing 1+ Goals (Currently at 1.09). Kick Off is at 3pm, however I am going out at 2pm, so il keep an eager eye on it! Current Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic - Lay 0-0 @ 10.0 for 10pts 26/12/10 - Blackburn Rovers Vs Stoke City - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.1 for 10pts Bank - 100pts Profit/Loss - 0 ROI - 0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 Punt Pretty bog standard with both bets coming off :) Only expect 1 loss in every 20 bets fingers crossed! Previous Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic (1-2) Profit 1.06pts 26/12/10 - Blackburn Rovers Vs Stoke City (2-0) Profit 0.95pts Bank - 102.01pts Profit/Loss +2.01 Wins/Losses - 2/0 ROI - 10.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 Punt Couple games for 28th/29th that are on the 1.09 Mark that would qualify if they reach 1.10. That may sound petty but the difference between 1.09 and 1.10 is OVER 10% on your profits which is a heck of a lot when dealing with such small ROI's! Will keep an eye on these odds tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Have backed the Preston Vs Middlesbrough, and Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga games at 1.1 for 10pts each on Betfair. The odds are currently at 1.09 so it is currently waiting to be matched. When/If it is matched, I will enter it in here officially :) Previous Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic (1-2) Profit 1.06pts 26/12/10 - Blackburn Rovers Vs Stoke City (2-0) Profit 0.95pts Bank - 102.01pts Profit/Loss +2.01 Wins/Losses - 2/0 ROI - 10.03% Back 1+ Goals at 1.1 for 10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Preston Vs M'boro is now confirmed! :) Current Bets 28/12/10 - Preston North End Vs Middlesbrough - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.1 for 10pts Previous Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic (1-2) Profit 1.06pts 26/12/10 - Blackburn Rovers Vs Stoke City (2-0) Profit 0.95pts Bank - 102.01pts Profit/Loss +2.01 Wins/Losses - 2/0 ROI - 10.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System State of play: Millwall Vs Leicester, and MK Dons Vs Bournemouth are both in the Betfair system hoping to be matched at 1.1. Now gotta dash out to Carrow Road for the Norwich game, so I will leave them in the system, and see if they went through when I get home (Betfair cancels all unmatched bets at Kick Off). Will then post results here around 6pm, and can also post screenshots of Betfair "Cancelled" and "Matched" screens if required for proof :) Hoping they will both get matched, but who knows! Current Bets 28/12/10 - Preston North End Vs Middlesbrough - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.1 for 10pts Potential Bets 28/12/10 - Millwall Vs Leciester - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.1 for 10pts (In Betfair System) 28/12/10 - MK Dons Vs AFC Bournemouth - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.1 for 10pts (In Betfair System) Previous Bets 26/12/10 - Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Wigan Athletic (1-2) Profit 1.06pts 26/12/10 - Blackburn Rovers Vs Stoke City (2-0) Profit 0.95pts Bank - 102.01pts Profit/Loss +2.01 Wins/Losses - 2/0 ROI - 10.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Another good day today with the Preston Vs Middlesbrough game being won after 27 minutes and the mighty Canaries fighting through a resiliant Blades side that tbh deserved at least a point :) Unfortuantly both the Millwall and MK Dons games didnt managed to get matched on Betfair, and would have both been winners also :( but alas... Anything that is found to be a qualifying match and available at 1.09 I shall put on for 1.10 and state so in here as I did with Millwall/MK Dons :) Now going to scour through the betfair market again for forthcoming matches :) Results 28/12/10 - Preston North End Vs Middlesbrough (1-3) Profit 0.95pts :loon Bank: 102.96pts Profit/Loss: +2.96 Wins/Losses: 3/0 ROI: 9.85% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System 2 Fixtures pop up as qualifiers currently sitting at just worse than needed odds and are below. These have been put on the Betfair market, and if/when they get matched I shall say so here! Potential Bets 01/01/11 - West Ham Vs Wolves - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Bank: 102.96pts Profit/Loss: +2.96 Wins/Losses: 3/0 ROI: 9.85% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Never been so ill as I was yesterday. Onwards and Upwards! There is also another 7 bets on top of this one that are hoping to be matched! :) Current Bets 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Bank: 102.96pts Profit/Loss: +2.96 Wins/Losses: 3/0 ROI: 9.85% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Current Bets 01/01/11 - West Ham United Vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Bank: 102.96pts Profit/Loss: +2.96 Wins/Losses: 3/0 ROI: 9.85% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
protop Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System When calculating ROI when laying you should be using the liability amount not the stake to acheive your ROI figures. Just a thought, good luck with it anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 30, 2010 Author Share Posted December 30, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System When calculating ROI when laying you should be using the liability amount not the stake to acheive your ROI figures. Just a thought' date=' good luck with it anyway![/quote'] I am buddy :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Another one just got matched! Current Bets 01/01/11 - West Ham United Vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 01/01/11 - Bury Vs Macclesfield Town - Lay 0-0 @ 11.0 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Bank: 102.96pts Profit/Loss: +2.96 Wins/Losses: 3/0 ROI: 9.85% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System PS. Where the games are the ones which are in betfairs system waiting to be matched, as I am only really paper trading the system atm, I am only putting the minimum on BF just so that I know whether or not it would get matched for the system! Current Bets 01/01/11 - West Ham United Vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 01/01/11 - Bury Vs Macclesfield Town - Lay 0-0 @ 11.0 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Bank: 102.96pts Profit/Loss: +2.96 Wins/Losses: 3/0 ROI: 9.85% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Massive win for the mighty Yellow and Green. Onwards we march to back to back Championships :D Solid day for the bets also :) Both coming off. None others got matched :( Results 01/01/11 - West Ham United Vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (2-0) = Profit 1.00pts :loon 01/01/11 - Bury Vs Macclesfield Town (2-2) = Profit 0.95pts :loon Current Bets 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Bank: 104.91pts Profit/Loss: +4.91 Wins/Losses: 5/0 ROI: 9.82% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Just got home and the following bets have been matched! Rangers Celtic is currently 49mins in and is 0-0 :( Can post the betfair page showing time that it was matched if proof is required! Current Bets 02/01/11 - Rangers Vs Celtic - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Bank: 104.91pts Profit/Loss: +4.91 Wins/Losses: 5/0 ROI: 9.82% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Goal after 62 mins for Celtic :D Results 02/01/11 - Rangers Vs Celtic (TBC) = Profit 0.95pts :loon Current Bets 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Bank: 105.86pts Profit/Loss: +5.86 Wins/Losses: 6/0 ROI: 9.76% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System St Johnstone got matched 16 mins before kick off! Just kicked off and they 0-0 Results 02/01/11 - Rangers Vs Celtic (TBC) = Profit 0.95pts :loon Current Bets 02/01/11 - St. Johnstone Vs Inverness CT - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Bank: 105.86pts Profit/Loss: +5.86 Wins/Losses: 6/0 ROI: 9.76% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Decided it will be easier and less "suspicious" if I keep all Potential bets in the thread also. 90% of the time il be able to announce before the game if 1 gets matched but there will be the odd occurence where I cant (Matched 10mins before kick off and im at Carrow Road) for example. Where this happens I will of course be able to provide Betfair proof if required :) I would just bet on those that I can get there and then, but thats simply not possible due to the very small volume of money available to match at these odds on most of the markets. They come and go too quick to be able to simply "catch them"! Results 02/01/11 - Rangers Vs Celtic (TBC) = Profit 0.95pts :loon Current Bets 02/01/11 - St. Johnstone Vs Inverness CT - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Potential Bets (In betfair system) Sheffield United Vs Doncaster Bradford City Vs Bury Town Bank: 105.86pts Profit/Loss: +5.86 Wins/Losses: 6/0 ROI: 9.76% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Late 85th minute goal by St. Johnstone is nice :D and Newcastle 1-0 up :D Results 02/01/11 - Rangers Vs Celtic (0-2) = Profit 0.95pts :loon 02/01/11 - St. Johnstone Vs Inverness CT (TBC) = Profit 0.95pts :loon 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United (TBC) = Profit 1.00pts :loon Current Bets 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Potential Bets (In >Betfair system) Sheffield United Vs Doncaster Bradford City Vs Bury Town Bank: 107.81pts Profit/Loss: +7.81 Wins/Losses: 8/0 ROI: 9.76% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System 4/4 for today which is good :) Now Gijon are 1-0 :) Results 02/01/11 - Rangers Vs Celtic (62') = Profit 0.95pts :loon 02/01/11 - St. Johnstone Vs Inverness CT (85') = Profit 0.95pts :loon 02/01/11 - Wigan Athletic Vs Newcastle United (19') = Profit 1.00pts :loon 02/01/11 - Sporting Gijon Vs Malaga (42') = Profit 0.95pts :loon Current Bets 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts Potential Bets (In >Betfair system) Sheffield United Vs Doncaster Bradford City Vs Bury Town Aldershot Vs Hereford Southend Vs Cheltenham Blackburn Vs Liverpool Bank: 108.76pts Profit/Loss: +8.76 Wins/Losses: 9/0 ROI: 9.73% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Nearing Kick Off! Southend has been matched Current Bets 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea - Back 1+ Goals @ 1.10 for 10pts 03/01/11 - Southend Vs Cheltenham - Lay 0-0 @ 11.00 for 10pts Potential Bets (In >Betfair system) Sheffield United Vs Doncaster Bradford City Vs Bury Town Aldershot Vs Hereford Blackburn Vs Liverpool Bank: 108.76pts Profit/Loss: +8.76 Wins/Losses: 9/0 ROI: 9.73% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System 11 out of 11 so far :) Good start :) Results 03/01/11 - Leicester Vs Swansea (6') = Profit 0.95pts 03/01/11 - Southend Vs Cheltenham (4') = Profit 0.95pts Potential Bets (In >Betfair system) Blackburn Vs Liverpool Bank: 110.66pts Profit/Loss: +10.66 Wins/Losses: 11/0 ROI: 9.71% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Blackburn Vs Liverpool has now gone through :) Current Bets 05/01/2011 - Blackburn Vs Liverpool - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Bank: 110.66pts Profit/Loss: +10.66 Wins/Losses: 11/0 ROI: 9.71% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Current Bets 05/01/2011 - Blackburn Vs Liverpool - Lay 0-0 @ 10.5 for 10pts Potential Bets (In Betfair System) Mallorca Vs Almeira Bank: 110.66pts Profit/Loss: +10.66 Wins/Losses: 11/0 ROI: 9.71% (Long Run Target = 4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Depboy Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: NCFCRulz's Laying 0-0 System Hi NCFC I would advise against posting your "Potential Bets (In Betfair System)" on this forum for your own sake. If your system proves to be profitable long term, you should anticipate that others will jump on your bandwagon. The result could be a pile-up of money (on top of your unmatched bet) on the lay side of the market. Consequently, your own chances of ever getting your bet matched will be diminished. I suggest it's always better to post bets once they're actually matched if you possibly can. GL:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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