Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5

[yrufset]

Hello all Does someone here familiar with markets that behave like the over/under 4.5 market in soccer? to be more accurate, the odds should start around 1.15 to 1.1 and as the game runs they are dropping unless an event occurs. Is there something like that in tennis? Cricket? Horse racing? Snooker? any other sport...? btw, Froment rocks ;) i got a lot of useful knowledge out of his posts, so if you are reading this one, thank you!

[froment]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5 Ahahaha, thanks for compliment! :ok Though, I didn't think so about my posts... at least, I wouldn't say so looking at my bank - looks like it doesn't reflect my posts... :\ Sure enough I read - as soon as I saw "Under 4.5" in the title. From what I can recall at the moment, similar markets are "Total goals" - lay "5 goals or more" which in fact has exactly the same behaviour and odds as Under 4.5, except that liquidity is much lower; and 0-0 and AUQ at "Correct Score" market; usually you can back 0-0 or lay AUQ somewhere between 8 and 15 (which corresponds to back odds of 1.14 and 1.07) at kick off, and then lay 0-0 or back AUQ later in the game, if there is no goal, of course. Difference is that 0-0 drops pretty fast, after 15 minutes you can achieve as much as 15 to 20% profit... but one goal, and it's dead, that's why I don't like it. AUQ drifts up somewhat slower, and profits after 15 minutes rarely can be more than 4 to 5%; it is very similar to Under 4.5, there are many chances to green up or to escape during match; results 4-0 and 0-4 are losing ones for AUQ but winning for under 4.5, while 3-2, 2-3 and 3-3 are opposite cases; that's why you can sometimes decide to go for AUQ instead of Under 4.5, and vice versa - depends if one of the teams is clear favourite yet you don't expect many goals, or you expect both teams to score some goals, but none of them too many... Another similar market is "Team {} to win to nil", but it's available only on some matches, usually the "bigger" ones; it starts at variety of odds, so sometimes they will fall into range you ask for; I don't know how exactly they move, but that bet is also gone as soon as the oposing team scores. I don't know for other sports, someone else will shed more light, I hope; though, your definition of event is not very clear - for example, in racing, odds for the horse that takes lead at the beginning will keep dropping... untill other horse closes and overtakes him! ;) Similar in tennis - odds for server will keep dropping as long as server regularly wins his games.

[Grex]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5 Sorry, Yrufset.... the discussion is above my head :unsure BTW, Froment.... your "location" is Montenegro..... Podgorica, by any chance??... I spent many happy years there watching Miomir transform the city into a Balkan utopia ;)

[froment]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5 That's why they say world is small! ;) I come from village 20 km from Podgorica, completed secondary school and college in Podgorica, but have never really lived there. Aye, Miomir is clear example of vulgar display of power, but let me not slander him now - if you noticed what he was doing, then it doesn't need further explanations... ;) To be honest, he succeeded to build up the city - many buildings, bridges, new streets and boulevards, malls, etc., have been built since he's been major; if you compare Podgorica now and dozen or two years ago, it's clearly huge improvement; but on the other side, he just acts like he owns the city, and decides about projects not on the basis of their importance of usability, but on his own preferences; looks like he lost his touch with reality, and believes that no-one but him could do what he does... :puke And years in Podgorica can be happy, indeed, just if one has solid source of income, which has been the main trouble here for most of the people, as long as I can remember. :\ City is small, yet you can always find interesting people, places and events, under pleasant climate most of the year. When were you living in Podgorica? Though, I suppose you prefer Costa del Sol now. You know, there are plans to build up golf courses here, as well; so maybe you'll be back one day? ;)

[yrufset]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5

Ahahaha, thanks for compliment! :ok Though, I didn't think so about my posts... at least, I wouldn't say so looking at my bank - looks like it doesn't reflect my posts... :\

i examined many different strategies in soccer, horse racing, basketball and tennis. the only one i liked was the one i learned about from a few of your posts about under 4.5: i think that if you choose your games right (which isn't that hard), manage your stakes correctly and keep your greed-daemon under control, it could be a very good low-risk-solid-profit strategy. i didn't have a loosing day in a long time now, though my profits are humble.

...though, your definition of event is not very clear - for example, in racing, odds for the horse that takes lead at the beginning will keep dropping... untill other horse closes and overtakes him! ;) Similar in tennis - odds for server will keep dropping as long as server regularly wins his games.

OK, let me re-phrase: the odds should start around 1.15 to 1.1 and as the game runs they should be dropping slowly, unless an event occurs, and it takes more than one event to kill your bet. :ok Now that i read it, it sounds almost impossible to find something similar that's not from the soccer markets.... Froment, is there a way to PM you? or e-mail you? Anyone else? other ideas?

[froment]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5

i examined many different strategies in soccer, horse racing, basketball and tennis. the only one i liked was the one i learned about from a few of your posts about under 4.5: i think that if you choose your games right (which isn't that hard), manage your stakes correctly and keep your greed-daemon under control, it could be a very good low-risk-solid-profit strategy. i didn't have a loosing day in a long time now, though my profits are humble.

Well, thanks for kind words! :ok I'm really glad you found it efficient and it helped your trading; that's purpose of forum! :ok You're right to some extent: stake management is very important, surely, and is not very big issue; but I found it very difficult to keep greed-demon under control, and I believe that some 80% of my losing trades were losing exactly because of greed - "Let me wait another minute, another tick"... and then boom! Finaly, I agree that it's important to choose right games, but I completely disagree that it "isn't that hard"! I found it very hard to predict number of goals, as there is no certain criteria you can apply to match analysis; when you analyse match for 1X2, there are certain factors you can pretty surely count on - missings, recent form, needs for points, etc., so you lean on home or away side; but all that info cannot precisely tell you if there will be many goals or no; you can include H2H stats in analysis, but that's history, which is set to be changed once, and it impacts odds - in leagues or between teams where you traditionally don't expect many goals, you get very poor odds, sometimes as low as 1.07 or 1.08 at kick off, which is absolutely no-no. So, match selection is crucial, and, at least for me, not so easy; in fact, this season so far has been poor, many unexpected results, so I have recently decreased number of trades at Under 4.5, and tried at some other markets.

OK, let me re-phrase: the odds should start around 1.15 to 1.1 and as the game runs they should be dropping slowly, unless an event occurs, and it takes more than one event to kill your bet. :ok Now that i read it, it sounds almost impossible to find something similar that's not from the soccer markets.... Froment, is there a way to PM you? or e-mail you? Anyone else? other ideas?

That said, I realize my mistake in post #2 in this thread: trading correct score 0-0 does not meet your requirements; not only because it's killed by first goal, but also because of odds, but it seems I overlooked it today... So, remains AUQ, which has similar odds and odds movement, and survives at least three goals. Some other correct scores have similar behaviour - all other higher scores rise as the game passes by, but they are far out of your odds range; maybe the closest one is 2-2: you can lay it usually at about 20 (equivalent to back at ~1.05), and at middle of first half, you can look to back it at around 50 (equivalent to lay at ~1.02), which gives you less than 3% profit. Though, at result 1-1 before 60-65th minute of the game, it will drop to around 9 to 12, and at results 1-2 or 2-1, to only 5 to 7, so is pretty dangerous and requires high strike rate. You can't PM me, as you need at least 50 posts to use PM feature; whenever a question like that arises, community says that purpose of forum is to publicly share opinions, questions and answers, otherwise forums would be abandoned places; I just can't imagine the content of your PM, as I don't have more to say than I said in these posts, but if you still need it, you can mail me at froment at operamail dot com. :)

[Grex]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5

When were you living in Podgorica? Though' date=' I suppose you prefer Costa del Sol now. You know, there are plans to build up golf courses here, as well; so maybe you'll be back one day? ;)[/quote'] Sorry to high-jack your thread, Yrufset, with boring chat about Montenegro, but it's a huge coincidence to "meet" a fellow punter from such a small country. Froment... I lived in Podgorica from 2001 to 2008... and was involved in the construction of many of those roads and bridges. The male population was obsessed with football betting.... on Saturday mornings the bars were full of men analysing form..... but the tendency was to go for crazy accumulators.... staking 1 Euro in the vain hope of winning 7,000 Euros :dude:dude

[froment]

Re: Similar markets to Over/Under 4.5 Well, obsession still lasts, as well as tendency for accas; it's just dream of easy and fast money, in absence of other reliable income. And maybe you noticed another bad tendency: loss chasing! Most of the punters will not accept losing day as long as there is any remaining match, and will try to recoup losses even on some obscure matches. I think roots of such a behaviour lie in restrictions bookies implied at the very beginning: first bookie shops here were opened somewhere in 1997 or 1998, if I remember well, and only few market were available for each match: match odds, double chance, first half, HT/FT, over/under 2.5, and maybe only several more; for match odds and double chances, singles were allowed only on small number of games, doubles and trebles were not allowed at all, with fourfold being the smallest allowed acca. Doubles and trebles were only allowed in HT/FT and over/under markets. Only half of decade later, when competition became stronger and experienced punters lost their dreams of easy money, bookies loosened their rules. Furthermore, you can often see in bookies' shops a winning ticket stuck at very visible place, just like one of those you described, which attracts people to add another match in their combo. Sufficient to say, I was also one of those punters that used to give small, but non-refundable, loan to bookies with each ticket, all the way long untill they introduced DNB and allowed any doubles; that's when I finally started winning something, not only losing, but couple of years ago I completely moved at Betfair. When it comes to online betting, Bet365 is absolute favourite here, you'll hardly find any online punter without Bet365 account. Nice to hear you played a role in construction of all that infrastructure here and did useful work! :ok Most of the foreigners here nowadays belong to some embassies, NGOs and similar organizations, that just move on from meetings to cocktails and vice versa, and suck out money from tax payers... :/