Jump Racing - 17th Dec

[BKI Punter]

3:20 Ascot Sophie's Trophy 0.5pts EW - 40/1 (VC) Big priced selection here. Sophie's Trophy comes into this race having had six spins over hurdles. Those six runs have yielded two wins and a third place finish. The third placed finish was on debut, coming into the race after a long break. The horse seems to need a race or two to come into herself so the third place finish in decent company was a very promising run. Was then thrown straight into the deep end at this track in a class three novice hurdle, with Menorah going off the 1/2 fav. Sophie's Trophy wouldn't settle but managed to come away with a very credible fourth place finish. Then went out to win two on the bounce in good style, with a few horses in behind who've gone on to improve quite a bit since then. Didn't run well in a handicap off a mark of 130, and didn't factor at all in a handicap at Cheltenham on her debut run this season, but I'm not too put off by that, as I think she'll come on a lot for it. Goes into this race on a mark of 125 which I think is well within her ability. The main worry I have is that both her wins over hurdles were on sharp, left handed tracks. Her run at Ascot though against far superior opposition makes me think she deserves another chance. Ground is in her favour, and the trip shouldn't be a problem. Interesting also that they put the tongue tie back on. 40/1 looks way too big.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jump Racing - 17th Dec 11:55 Ascot Gertacrue 2pt win - 9/1 (Betfair) I remember before his run in behind Owen Glendower on seasonal debut his trainer was particularly excited about him. He ran well and can be given a lot of credit, OG won again nto and then ran well for a long way in a high class novice hurdle behind Cue Card, perhaps paying the price for trying to go with him when he made his move. He went out again to finish second to Arthurian Legend but still managed to pull 5 lengths clear of the rest. This step-up in trip should be right up this street, he won a couple of points over 3 miles and seems to handle most ground. The two miles might've been a bit sharp for him so I think he deserves respect for those previous runs. 9/1 looks quite big in this moderate affair.