Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 16th December

[wizzkid walter]

12:30 Southwell - If You Whisper - Back Looks to have an absolutely golden opportunity here to break the maiden tag. His 2nd lto is the standout piece of form in the race and a re-production of that run will see him coast home here. Mazovian was 3rd lto but he was behind a horse in 2nd rated 65. On the basis that If You Whisper is rated 78, it suggests that he will have to find a large amount of improvement very quickly to be able to get anywhere near causing an upset here 1pt win @ SP

[Monterosso]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Thursday 16th December 1:20 Exeter - Darn Hot - 1pt @ 10/1 (PaddyPower - BOG) Very game Mare who improved since being switched to fences having failed to win on any of her 7 hurdle outings. On her 6 completed starts over fences, her form reads ; 6-2-4-1-2-3. She's ultra consistent and could have turned a couple of those defeats into victories if it wasn't for some untidy jumping. She's usually one who needs a run to be fully wound up and she made a re-appearance over 3m at Huntingdon on the 10th of November. She ran extremely well for a long way, traded at 1.71 in running and looked likely to at least finish very close up. In the end she finished in 3rd place in a 5 runner race, 24l behind the winner, after making a bad mistake at the last due to exhaustion. She didn't see out the 3m trip very well and now steps back to an extended 2m 3f trip at a track much more to her liking. Darn Hot was just touched off in this race last year in an exciting 3 way finish. She ran a cracker to come within a nose of Pavillon Bleu, a horse she had been beaten by on her previous run by 33 lengths in what was her first run of that season. She clearly improves for her runs and she showed that day that the track suits her very well indeed as she jumped with more authority than is normally the case. She now returns to this course which has me interested again. Her mark is 8lbs higher now than it was then but the race is likely to be run in a much more suitable fashion, as there are so many front runners here so I'm expecting a truly run race. There should be a fair gallop from the outset and this will play right into the hands of Darn Hot, who usually finishes out her races very well and has a decent bit of toe when needed. Her jockey takes off a valuable 3lb due to his claim and his record suggests he's not a bad man to have on board, even though I've never heard of him. He has been on board her on all of her 16 career starts and should know exactly how to get a good tune out of the Mare, although I'd much prefer if there was a top jockey on her back for a change. 10/1 looks very generous to me, her stable are going well of late and they're 3 from 3 at Exeter in 2010 with 14/1, 10/1 and 15/2 winners. Very impressive and it'll hopefully continue. This is a tough race by all means but I think my selection has a very good chance of running into a place at least. She'll like the ground, love the trip, love how the race will be run and should relish the return to the course. She should also come on so much for that run last time out and I'm expecting a very good result here. She's only a 6/1 shot in my book but due to her stable being relatively unfashionable, I don't see the price fluctuating much, unless connections get stuck in. Decent each way stakes here at a very decent price.