My first attempts at a system

[AndrewKent]

Hi folks, I'm currently experimenting with different ideas for systems. As I am a data analyst for a living (and a VBA programmer) I have to admit I am enjoying the challanege of putting a system together, dealing with the data and seeing if I can make a little bit of success from nothing. I found an interesting Over/Under system that I wanted to share with you:

This is an Under/Over strategy 

I'm afraid it look's a bit simple, but it has been quite profitable for me. 
As mentioned it's an under/over strategy and it's based only on statistics. 

Let's imagine that there's a match between team A and team B. 
(A is the home team). First of all I will check what is team 
A's average of goals scored and conceded at home. Let's say 
that team A scores 2.1 and concedes 1.20 - total of 3.30 
goals average in team A's home games. 

Then I will check what team B's average of goals scored and 
conceived in their away games is. 
Let's say that team B scores 1.75 avg. and concedes 1.15 - 
a total of 2.90 goals avg. in team B's away games. 

Then I take the two smallest numbers 1.15 + 1.20 = 2.35 - 
minimum goals in this match. In the same manner you find the 
maximum which is 3.85. The avg. of the min/max is 3.10 which 
is much more the line of 2.50, so I will bet over in this game. 

If I get an avg. of 2.70 or more I will bet over with high 
stakes. If it's between 2.50 and 2.70 I will decide by myself 
if the OVER bet is worth a try, but it will definitely be 
with small stakes. 
If I get an average between 2.30 and 2.50 I will decide if the 
UNDER bet is worth a try and it will definitely be with 
small stakes. 

If I get an average of 2.30 or lower I will bet under with 
high stakes. 

Of course, sometimes I don't necessarily bet on the 2.50 line. 
I might also bet on lines of 3.00, 2.00 and others. 

I have already increased my bank by 50% in one month using this 
betting strategy and I will certainly continue increasing 
my betting bank further. 

now I have put this system together with my source of data (from www.football-data.co.uk) and although I can see there can be a profit made here, it seems to be very very small indeed (about 6% ROI) can anyone suggest any factors that I might have overlooked. I thought about the following: 1) Only analysing data where Team A / Team B are playing in the same division 2) Looking to find the Over / Under % for the league as a whole and working from there Cheers, Andy

[Dices]

Re: My first attempts at a system Can you associate in your analysis the "relationship" between this average figure and the offered odds? I mean can you define "value" in your possible bets? An average of 3.1 goals is hight but what if the odds at this case is 1.4? If you divide 3.1/1.4 you will get a figure and based on that you place bets only if it's above/below .... (and maybe varying stakes) I'm only proposing an approach. 6% ROI (yield) is not small. How many is your bets?