Flat Racing - 25/11

[RussP]

6.40 Wolverhampton - Brouhaha, 1pt EW 12 runners here for 1m4f Class 4 handicap. At first glance, this looks a really tough puzzle to solve with many of these reopposing each other on slightly different terms. However, I'm going with one that can't easily be measured against it's rivals, in Brouhaha. Around a 12/1 shot in the forecast market and that looks too big. Has a good record on the sand, 5 wins and 4 2nds from 21 tries so clearly at home on the surface and now races off a very favourable mark, 2lb lower than lto but with a capable 7lb claimer on top that gets on well with this horse (a win and a 2nd from 4 rides). Last win came off 76 with this jockey on top (off 77 today), since then form figures read 4-2-0-6-3-6 (all off marks in the 80's) and lto 4th of 5 off 79 but trip was wrong and no pace in the race meant it turned into a sprint. My main concern is the waiting tactics employed with the horse but I always like a trainer putting a capable claimer on board after promising performances with the pro up. Down in class, down in mark and back at more suitable trip all add to the chances of this 6yo gelding, I just hope he gets the run of the race.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Flat Racing - 25/11 i like that one too russ.not as good as write up but if it wins who cares. 6.40 WOLVERHAMPTON BROUHAHA 14-1 1pt ew Brouhaha is on a very dangerous handicap all weather mark here for this Class 4 race for 3 year old plus.has been running its races last few and drops down in trip and class here which could be key. Has faced one of the favourites here ethics girl three times,twice on turf and once on poly track..Although losing twice on turf to ethics it wasnt far away and is 12 pounds better off in the weights,from both it runs and its 3 length defeat in september at Thirsk(class 4) The one time they face each other on poly track was over 9 furlongs last november when Brouyhaha came out on top by just under two lenghts.. again it is 11 pounds better off in the weights from that race..Key also is that Brouhaha has a 7 pound claimer up making it effectively 18 pounds better off in the weights and ethics girl wasnt catching the selection that day either.. Through a form line though beggars opera and Cosimo De Medici,the 2nd and 3rd favourite ethics girl holds these on the form of a race earlier this month at wolves over 14f...so that sees the selection capable of getting close to those at the top of the market,whether it gets to the favourite is another matter but i think its worth ew bet..# Brohuha is also well off in the weights against Pelham Crescent,who it easily beat this year by 7 lenghts on turf,and is 10 pounds better off in the weights..It acts on poly track and is so well weighted if it is off,it must have a big chance :? 5.10 WOLVERHAMPTON RESTLESS BAY 6-1 1PT WIN In a day when betting opportunities are thin on the ground i feel this one is value in what looks a weak class 3 Nursery..Jack smudge may have won its last 4 races,but i dont think they where particularly strong,especially its last win at kempton class 3. .Restless bay is the only C&D winner in the field,and is very consistant on the clock,and is very well weighted compared to the favourite,Jack smudge and second favourite fifth commandment...it has 1 + on those two and tries first time blinkers...It seems a good jump in class but i feel this is not as tough as race as it seems,fifth commandent doesnt seem to like poly track,and i think restless bay course liking,and good draw and consistancy on the clock could see it score here