Best bet of the day 20th Nov

[chris34]

2.30 Lingfield My old mate Autumn Blades returns to his favourite track under Probert who struck a good record with this horse last winter as he improved out of recognition. Has won on turf off his current mark and was placed on aw off a 1lb last year. Well drawn and with probert back in the saddle he could be extremely dangerous back round here. 0.5pt e/w Autumn Blades

[Monterosso]

Re: Best bet of the day 20th Nov 2:20 Haydock - Palypso De Creek - 1pt @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG) I followed this fellow every time he ran last season, he won once (15/2) and came 2nd (33/1) from 5 runs. The 2nd place finish was over this C&D in the mud when coming 3 lengths behind Our Vic off this mark of 136. He's a very good jumper the majority of times and should excel in this relatively small 8 runner field. The 3 mile trip is his optimum and the ground poses no threat to his chances as he is proven on all ground that isn't too fast, it currently has a bit of give in it and that's perfect for him, although he's most effective on very testing ground. He runs out of the Longsdon yard who rarely visit this track and their last 5 runners here have all finished 2nd, hopefully they can overturn that here. They've been in fine form of late with 3 winners and many more placing from their last 20 runners, this fellow is the only one they bring to Haydock. Longsdon does well here having had 3 winners from 13 runners (23%) and 6 seconds, highly impressive stats and he could well be adding to that here with some luck. Palypso De Creek is tactically versatile, he can be ridden handy or held up to run on late, with 2 potential pace setters in the field I'm favouring the latter as the most effective tactic for him at a course that suits him perfectly, as shown when coming 2nd here on his only start which was in a very valuable handicap over this distance. He loves galloping tracks and relatively soft ground, both of which he gets here. He has a new jockey on board on his 6th career run in the UK having previously run in France, Richard Johnson is the man to take the reins here and he's a jockey I rate very highly indeed. He rarely rides for this yard and has 1 win from 7 rides when doing so, the win coming aboard 1 of 3 rides over fences. Johnson rides the chase course at Haydock very well, he has 10 wins from 36 rides giving him a very impressive 28% strike rate, he's very strong in a finish and an ideal jockey for any horse over this staying distance, he's certainly a step up on Tom Siddall who usually rides this fellow. Palypso De Creek usually goes well fresh and has a 7 month lay off to overcome, I don't think this is too much of a worry as he has won when fresh on a couple of occasions. A 7 year old won this race last year and I'm hoping history will repeat itself here, there are a couple of other 7 year olds with good claims too but this fellow is open to much more progression this season having only had 5 runs in the UK so far, he ran in the Aintree Grand National when last seen but fell at the canal turn when looking a tired and beaten horse. However, this is much more to his liking and if feeling no ill effects of his only career fall to date, I expect to see a very big run from him. He's the 3/1 favourite in my book and I feel the 5's available are quite generous, he's the one to beat here and he's worth medium stakes to make a successful return with conditions bordering on his optimum.