value bets - proportional staking system

[nkdz]

was thinking about this for some time and decided to give it a go. as the title says, i will focus on, by my estimation, valuable odds on which i(estimation again) have 5% or more edge over bookies. main point will be my staking system, dont know how to explain it using only words so i'll try with an example; lets say we have a tennis match between federer and djokovic. bookies rate fedex as a 1.25 favourite while odds on nole's win are set at 4.00, that means they give him exactly 25% chances to win this match. by my personal estimations nole has around 35% chance to win(so "fair" odds should be 2.85). so i think i have 10% advantage over bookies. now i divide that number of percentage by 5. 10 divided by 5 equals 2 and i stake 2% of my total bankroll on nole. i hope someone understands... :unsure anyway, to avoid bigger risk i won't be staking more than 4% of total bankroll. so if my estimation is that i have more than 20% edge i will still stake 4%. starting virtual bank will 10,000 points, all sports/leagues are included but will take odds from only 3 bookmakers; pinnacle, sbo and 188bet. i will also have rule of not posting more than 3 bets in one day, as well as not posting more than 15 bets/week. hope it will get me somewhere. i already tryed kelly's criterion but for shorter period and it wasnt bad at all. this one probably has several weak spots but i hope i'll be able to modify it. :drums

[Shy10ck]

Re: value bets - proportional staking system

lets say we have a tennis match between federer and djokovic. bookies rate fedex as a 1.25 favourite while odds on nole's win are set at 4.00, that means they give him exactly 25% chances to win this match.

You forget the bookies overround, in you example the bookies payback percentage is 95,24. 100 / (1/1,25) + (1/4) = 95,24 The bookies give Federer a 76,2% (95,24/1,25) winning chance and Djokovic a 23,8% (95,24/4) winning chance. The 25% to Djokovic is the break even percentage. Good luck with your system :D