Jump racing ~ Saturday 6th November

[Stevet1859]

3:20 Wincanton: I'moncloudnine 2pts win 11/1 William Hill I'moncloudnine put up a fine effort first time out at Bangor. He is off a career high mark today, but there is a suspicion he goes best right handed. I'moncloudnine has won at the course too. Neil Mulholland's string are running to form and Dougie Costello has a good record when riding the stables chasers. Going and distance should be no problem, and I'moncloudnine could improve again and go close.

[Monterosso]

Re: Jump racing ~ Saturday 6th November I'm not very good at the jumps but here goes nothing.. 2:10 Wincanton - Black Jack Blues - 2pts @ 6/1 (Bet365) Highly progressive 7 year old hurdler who made a cracking comeback when jumping brilliantly last time out to score by 9 lengths in a decent handicap, he now takes another leap up in class with an added 13lbs on his back but I believe he's capable of overcoming that and he's one to keep on the right side of for this season. He's usually a front runner and it's quite risky taking him here in a race that contains Australia Day and Barizan but I think my selection could let them go at each other and take advantage in the final stages of the race as I expect they could go at breakneck speeds and run themselves out of the race, the latter is a bit of a header altogether and takes his fields along at severely rapid gallops and if that happens again it could well play into my selections hands as he has both the speed and stamina to cope with a race run in that fashion. I'd be even happier if Black Jack Blues somehow managed to get an uncontested lead but that's highly unlikely in this race. He also handles all ground and regardless of what it's like today he should have no problems in that respect, he's also unbeaten at no further than 2miles, that's from 3 races. He's also 2 wins from 2 runs on right handed tracks, although he has raced predominantly on left handed tracks but it's still a nice looking stat as he's a very good jumper going either way. Aodhagan Conlon takes the ride today, he was on board this fellow last time out and gave him a fine ride, he takes off a very valuable 7lb from his claim and is a very capable jockey on his day but he's inexperienced and hasn't yet reached 200 career rides. He has a 12% strike rate over hurdles but has yet to win a race at this track from 4 attempts, although they were on poor horses so I would pass no heed on that stat. Black Jack Blues is trained by Rebecca Curtis, she's a class trainer and has a 20% strike rate with all of her runners, which is highly impressive and a credit to her training abilities. She has only had 7 runners at this track before, never had a winner but can hopefully change that today. Her charge has drifted out to 6/1 from 5's overnight and I'm snapping that up, it's a brilliant price in this race and with so much in his favour I had him down as a 7/2 shot. He's only worth small enough stakes as how the race will be run is too difficult to work out but I think he's worth following this season and should come on 10fold for having that recent run in which he was so impressive. I expect he'll take this race in his stride and continue his impressive progression and go on to bigger and better things, that's the plan anyways. 3:00 Down Royal - Osana - 3pts @ 5/1 (VC) High class hurdler turned high class chaser and looks a monster price here given everything likely to suit. He will have a battle to beat Pandorama who looks a very classy type but he's well in at the weights given that he's rated 2lbs higher than that one and carries half a stone less. He ran great races in defeat at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, all of them coming in 2m Grade 1 chases. He now step up to 2m 4f for the first time over the bigger obstacles and I reckon it should suit, he also should be suited to the testing nature of the Down Royal track and he'll relish the ground conditions too. He loves soft ground and has won 3 from 6 on it, also having never finished outside the top 3, the combination of the ground and step up in trip should see him in an even better light, he's also a very good jumper when on song. He's trained by Edward O'Grady, his yard isn't in great knick of late but with his top horses starting to come out in the coming weeks he should see things picking up, he pulled Osana out of a prep race not long ago as he was waiting for Soft ground and that he does get today. This should be race to get him ready for the Powers Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month and there's no better place to run him that Down Royal, a track that O'Grady has a mighty fine 20% strike rate and his horses go very well at the track usually. Andrew McNamara takes the ride, he knows the horse well having ridden him on 7 occasions including 2 wins. He's a jockey I rate highly and he has 5 wins from 25 rides over fences at Down Royal, giving him a 20% strike rate to match the trainer he's riding for today, hopefully a good omen. Osana has a decent record fresh and I don't see that causing any problems here, it'll be a reasonably tough task by all accounts but he's clearly a high class individual and has to have a very good chance here. Pandorama warrants favoritism but shouldn't be half the price of a horse who could be even better over this trip, has solid G1 form, loves the ground and should be suited by the track. I have him down as the 15/4 second favourite with the Nicholls runner not far behind either, I just prefer those who are well in at the weights and O'Grady's 8 year old certainly is. Medium sized win bet as there's little point going each way at this price.