FLAT racing | 03 Nov | Wednesday

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Nottingham 13:15
Selection	Tanjung Agas (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	03/11/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 0.00
Reasoning	Poor efforts in two career runs this year but now sent to a favourable track. Trainer M A Jarvis does better here than the two previous runs of the selection. Jarvis have 6 wins from 12 at Nottingham for 2010 - 3 wins from 6 runs by a 2yo. First two runs came in Newmarket and Yarmouth. Jarvis at those venues for 2010 have 6 wins from 53 runs. The selection is now gelded. Cost of the horse is 250,000gns, foal 115,000euros.

[Monterosso]

Re: FLAT racing | 03 Nov | Wednesday 4:05 Nottingham - Hail Tiberius - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) Lightly raced maiden 3 year old who showed little in handicaps until eventually dropping down to this mark of 69 and running a very good race on Good to Soft ground at Leicester last time out, he came 4th of 15 in a race with many unexposed sorts and I thought he ran very well and was even well backed from 33/1 into 20/1 just before the off. He was relatively prominent throughout and stayed on very well for pressure when looking well beat a few out, he ended up just shy of 3 lengths behind the winner. With similar conditions here at Nottingham today I'm expecting another bold bid if all goes to plan, he comes with a slight risk as he bombed out on 3 of his other 4 handicap starts but the soft ground and 10f trip seemed to bring out the best in him. Graham Gibbons is on board again too and this will be his 6th time to ride this fellow, hopefully it'll result in a win soon. Gibbons has a very good 14% strike rate when riding for this trainer and a good profit to level stakes too, he has also won 1 out of 4 rides on 3 year olds at this course for Walford with 1 second and a 4th place also. Walford typically does well at Nottingham, he has a 17% strike rate here and is 2 from 9 with his 3 year olds with a further 3 placing. With Hail Tiberius clearly suited by going left handed on these galloping tracks he should have a lot to his liking today, he's also well drawn and should get a handy position early. There's no out and out pace but I think that may suit him, he seems to have a nice turn of foot but takes a little longer than most to make it click, the steady gallop should certainly help this if they don't take off to quick and leave him in their wake. He probably will be one of the first off the bridle but he showed a different side to him last time out and I reckon that he's more comfortable in the bigger fields, as some of his results would also back up. He has a good attitude on a going day and comes up against 13 other horses here, if he can get settled just behind the pace and get the gaps when needed I reckon he has the toe on softer ground to win a race like this. I don't think he'll be a maiden for too long and he looks a likely winner of a mark of 69, hopefully today. He made his handicap debut off 78 and in 4 runs dropped 9lbs, I think he has been given a good chance to get off the mark and the odds of 14/1 look massive to me. I had him down as a 6/1 shot with many things being in his favour and he's each way value in the extreme if he gets some luck. Decent each way stakes for me and hopefully he can finish his season off in style, certainly has the ability and potential to do so.