Melbourne Cup 2nd Nov

[Tedthewolf]

http://www.cupcarnival.com.au/2010/10/30/2010-melbourne-cup-barrier-draw-field/

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Melbourne Cup 2nd Nov First things first, I should point out that I'm quite new to racing so my knowledge and understanding is exceptionally limited. So You Think(56kg) was quite impressive today but there's still got to be a couple of question marks about it. The cup is over 3200m and the longest it's raced over is 2040m. It's also a Weight for Age horse and hasn't really been run in a big handicap event like this. It's had a very kind barrier draw and is still a deserved favourite. I still think the weather will be a big factor. The first race today at the track was on a good 3, the last was on a heavy 8. Rain is expected to continue til at least Monday so the condition of the track will be quite important. If it's bog heavy then some of the horses around the $21 mark are really going to come into and the form of the Caufield Cup (which was run on heavy) is going to become more important. I'm somehow managed to get 5 of my antepost picks into the field, so I will be cheering them on. That said, some of those picks were based purely on odds and the chaos of the elimination order today, and I wouldn't necessarily recommend them now. One horse that I did take quite early though that I still think is decent value is Once Were Wild. It'll carry just 51.5kg and has been fairly good recently. It was unlucky in the Geelong Cup where it couldn't get a run and finished 8th. The winner of that race, Americain, is now around the $13 mark. You can watch the Geelong Cup here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C356-usmuO0 Once Were Wild also ran today in the Lexus Stakes and went with the speed. Went for home well out and was only just beaten to the line. The winner of that race, Maluckyday is now around the 12 mark. Lexus Stakes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80AjRyqOEeo I'd expect on Tuesday Once Were Wild would go with the leaders or even lead the race and hope to have some luck and stay ahead. Something it did brilliantly in the group 1 AJC Australian Oaks earlier this year: http://horseracing.bigpondsport.com/Livevideoreplays/tabid/75/Default.aspx (change date to April 17, 2010. Click on Randwick race 5). I'm by no means saying Once Were Wild will win, and it's certainly not the most talented horse in the race. However, it's still a very gutsy mare that could easily have won the race that both American and Maluckyday won, but is still 4x the odds. It's also carrying less weight than every other horse bar Maluckyday, which could prove useful if the track is slow. For the record, I'm also on the winner of the Lexus Stakes, Maluckyday, and runner up Linton. The latter has drawn a bad barrier and I probably wouldn't want to take it at current odds, but Maluckyday is a very impressive horse, lightly raced and a genuine chance. It's trainers actually thought long and hard about not advancing to the cup and they are generally quite conservative in terms of pushing a horse too far. The fact they've decided to enter him probably says a lot about their opinion of his ability.