twinkle66 Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 I have been trading the under/over goals market on betfair on football. I have had some success but last few games have had early goals and wiped out my profit. I have been paper trading a theory this morning and cant see where i can go wrong, there must be a floor and wondered if someone would mind commenting on this theory for me On the Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan game this afternoon I place a £2 bet on correct score for £18 profit (this is my insurance) I then lay under 3.5 goals at 1.31 (liability of £17.05 which would be covered by my correct score if a goal isnt scored) Once a goal is scored, the back bet for the under 3.5 would increase above 1.31 where i could green up for the profit. some suggestions to my theory would be helpful thanks x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted October 29, 2010 Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Football Trading Question There's nothing wrong with your teory, but you just need too many events to set up in your favour, in order to achieve profit. Back odds for under 3.5 will increase once a goal is scored, but they will increase to more than 1.31 only if that first goal is scored before 35 minute (that's my evaluation, 5 minutes more or less); after that, you will have to wait for a second goal, and if second goal comes somewhere after 70 minute, odds will again not top 1.31; finally, limit for third goal is around 87 minute - later than that, odds will be again lower than 1.31. Based on odds for under 2.5 and under 1.5 for this match (currently 1.77 and 3.35; and it seems you should do better if you waited - under 3.5 is at 1.27 now), I would say that if first goal is scored in very early minutes of the match, odds will rise to around 1.80, maximum 1.85; and two very early goals (inside 5 minutes of the match) would see odds of under 3.5 to around 3.3. First goal by the middle of half time would send odds to around 1.50, and two goals in first half to around evens. So, later in the game first goal is scored (which immediately ruins your insurance bet), lower your chance for profit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinkle66 Posted October 29, 2010 Author Share Posted October 29, 2010 Re: Football Trading Question Yup, there it is, i knew it was too good to be true, but i just couldnt see it. prob, better at sticking to laying the draw with that strategy. Back to the drawing board then, or might have a little look and the Under 2.5 Thanks very much for your reply, most helpful :ok Tx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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