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Tennis - 25-31 October


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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Four selections for tomorrow's action in the men's tournaments. - Edouard Roger-Vasselin -2.5 games AH (vs Frederico Gil) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (6/10) I can't get away from the French player in this match-up in Montpellier. There wouldn't be a huge amount between them on clay but I expect Roger-Vasselin to win indoors. They've met twice before - Gil winning on clay but Roger-Vasselin on hard - so I think that shows the relative surface strengths of each. Gil is a plucky player but hasn't got a huge game and he often struggles with timing and bounce judgement in these conditions. He's been playing in clay events in the lead-up to Montpellier and I don't think he comes here adequately prepared. Roger-Vasselin was in Orleans last week playing a Challenger and generally picks up a few wins in these lower-classed French events. He took Xavier Malisse fairly close in Metz earlier this month and has beaten guys such as Juan Martin Del Potro in the past on such surface. That form alone is better than anything Gil has to offer. I think he should be getting past Gil and a -2.5 game handicap isn't a great deal to ask for. - Jan Hajek (vs Pere Riba) @ 1.862 with Pinnacle (5/10) I'm going with the more experienced indoor player here in Vienna. These two guys are not exactly set-the-pulse-racing players but one has to win, and I reckon it'll be Hajek. He got wiped off the court by Tobias Kamke last week but the German was coming into form after a Challenger win and is comfortable in the conditions. Riba is essentially a clay courter. He's never played a Tour match indoors and was in South America as early as last week playing in clay challengers. I reckon indoor conditions here are going to be too quick for Riba's liking. Hajek has only won a handful of matches indoors but he's played in such an environment more often and, for my money, is a little stronger on serve and a bit more consistent. This won't be a classic but reckon Hajek will do the job, especially as he's defending ranking points from last year here. - Arnaud Clement -2 games AH (vs Albert Montanes) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (5/10) I'm very surprised to see Montanes in Montpellier and I'm assuming he's only here to make up his quota of 250 tournaments. Montanes is ranked 23 in the world but he's not there because of his indoor attributes. He'd be a 60-80 player in these conditions because he is a clay courter by trade. There's no doubt he's improved on quicker surfaces but he's not played an indoor match this year. Clement's not the force he was but he's still capable of putting on a show and I expect his motivation to be very high in France. He was in Stockholm last week and lost to Ivan Ljubcic, but before that had messed up Olivier Rochus, bagelling the Belgian. I wouldn't expect such antics but Clement is going to be more comfortable out here. He's beaten Montanes twice before in their only meetings which suggests the Spaniard isn't wild about coming up against him. I reckon Montanes is here for the cheque and if Clement's motivated for this, I expect him to cover a two-game line. - Martin Fischer +2.5 games AH (vs Andreas Seppi) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) I think it would be fair to call this a speculative bet, but there's quite often a wee shock in such small events involving a home player and Seppi has history of crashing out to such. He lost in Bucharest a few events back to Adrian Ungur in the first round. He's mentally quite a frail player and I reckon he doesn't concentrate nearly as much as he should when he's playing lower-ranked players. He lost in Vienna at the first hurdle in the last two years, last year going out to Jan Hajek. He is a better player overall than Fischer but I expect the 24-year-old Austrian to raise his game here. He's had a very good year, a career best, and comes into this event with some practice on this surface in Orleans. When he's been up against bigger players in the Slams this season, he's run them extremely close. He took Thomaz Bellucci to four close sets at SW19 (three of which were breakers) and took Horacio Zeballos to 6-8 in the fifth at Roland Garros. There's no doubting his ability to compete with these guys. Seppi can be brilliant but he can also be very flaky, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Fischer give him a real run for his money by taking a set or keeping it extremely close. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October I am playing Vasselin and Hajek myself for 6/10, but I will add this one too. J Chardy - M Kukushkin Pick: M Kukushkin ML Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.20 Bookmaker: Pinnacle The last bet for tennis tomorrow, as there really that much going on yet in the tournaments. Kukushkin has beaten Chardy comfortably last week and that means that he needs to be taken at odds against. Not much has happened since then and I do not see a reason for Chardy to be motivated/play better than in Moscow. All things considered, this is 50/50 match if we take the last meeting into account and these odds are pure value.

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Two other bets for Round 1 in the men's events. Not sure when these will get played yet. - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -2.5 games AH (vs Michael Berrer) @ 1.952 with Pinnacle (6/10) This is a new Garcia-Lopez we are seeing these days. He appears to have become a far more consistent player in the last year or so and capped that off with a fabulous run in Asia, winning the indoor event in Bangkok and making the quarter-finals in Shanghai. He played Berrer in Bangkok, beating the German 6-4 7-6, and I'd expect him to get the better of him again. Berrer is a useful indoor player but he's struggling to win many matches at present and is a bit one-dimensional in his tactics. Garcia-Lopez has got more about him with a nice serve and flat, deep groundies. He's on a roll at present and has hit form. A week off shouldn't have done him any harm and he's a man I'd expect him to go fairly deep in Vienna. He leads the H2H 2-0 over Berrer so he's not a great match-up for the German. Considering the Spaniard's recent performances, I'm happy to back him to cover the -2.5 game line. - Denis Istomin -3 games AH (vs Illya Marchenko) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (6/10) This is the second meeting within a week for these two and I'm happy to back Istomin to win this again. The Uzbek had a good week in Moscow, getting to the semis. He should have beaten Marcos Baghdatis but failed to serve out the match. Whether that match has an affect on him is open to debate, but he's proven in the last two meetings that he's got the better of Marchenko. He beat the Ukrainian on grass earlier this year and leads the H2H 4-2, although one of the Marchenko wins was a retirement. Istomin's a power player - huge serve, big groundies. Marchenko isn't as imposing as the Uzbek and hasn't really done a great deal in the last few months since breaking into the Top 100. I don't expect Istomin to be too fatigued from his matches in Moscow. Travel isn't an issue to St Petersburg and playing a man he has had the better off gives him a good chance to progress into another tournament. Three games is achievable - he covered it last week and I expect the same again. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Hi guys, 2 picks for ATP St. Petersburg: GABASHVILI TO DEFEAT VOLANDRI @ 1.27 on betfair TURSUNOV TO DEFEAT PRZYSIEZNY @ 1.25 on betfair Volandri is one of those clay courters who can't play on faster surfaces. He just probably came here to take 1st round prize money. He was injured for a month and it is his first match outside clay courts for 2 years. Tursunov is super-motivated, fast indoor surface is right for him and his opponent was injured for a long time and prefers slower surfaces anyway.

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October One more for today, mainly down to the movement of the odds. - Jeremy Chardy -2 games AH (vs Mikhail Kukushkin) @ 1.901 with Pinnacle (6/10) I actually had this in my mind before the odds started cascading on Chardy. Yes, Kukushkin beat the Frenchman last week in Moscow but I see that as an abberation. Chardy is the better player and has made the second round for the last two years in St Petersburg. This is not a particularly strong event and Chardy will look to at least consolidate his ranking points from last year. I find it interesting that Chardy has chosen this event rather than Montpellier and my guess is that the conditions here favour him more. He's more of a clay man but can perform indoors. Kukushkin has made big strides this year but is too scratchy a player for me - his defeat last week to Radek Stepanek was abject and Chardy has got more in his locker than what he showed last week. I'm also curious as to why there has been consistent money for Chardy. You'd expect the opposite considering Kukushkin won last week. Perhaps Chardy was ill in Moscow? Kukushkin is from Kazakhstan so I'm not ruling out something '"interesting" going on here too. In any case, Chardy is better than what he showed in Moscow, and I expect him to reverse the form with his lower-ranked opponent. :hope

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Isner vs Paire OVER 20.5 games @ 1.813 (Pinny:2pts) Paire +4.5 games @ 1.80 (Pinny:2pts) Isner as a short fave gives some good opportunities.We all know he's a beast on serve but the nature of his game means most matches he plays are closer than the lines would make out....take his match with Kubot in Shanghai or Tsung in Beijing.I've watched Paire a couple of times and boy is this guy inconsistent. He's got a good game though, big serve which should help vs Isner, got some variety aswell which should be useful.Limited experience on indoor surface but still think he can keep this close enough.

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Igor Andreev Vs Russel - St Petersburg leg 1- Andreev played terrible last week but he's a decent player and @ 1.40 its a safe bet. when andreev beat daydenko in malaysia it showed he can beat the best. and russell shouldnt come even close. Pere Riba Vs Jan Hajek leg 2- Pere Riba v hajek @ 1.98 i like this for a value bet, riba has impressed alot of people lately with a fair few wins. its very even, but i think riba will comeout on top because of his ground game.. gl :clap

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

One more for today' date= mainly down to the movement of the odds. - Jeremy Chardy -2 games AH (vs Mikhail Kukushkin) @ 1.901 with Pinnacle (6/10) I actually had this in my mind before the odds started cascading on Chardy. Yes, Kukushkin beat the Frenchman last week in Moscow but I see that as an abberation. Chardy is the better player and has made the second round for the last two years in St Petersburg. This is not a particularly strong event and Chardy will look to at least consolidate his ranking points from last year. I find it interesting that Chardy has chosen this event rather than Montpellier and my guess is that the conditions here favour him more. He's more of a clay man but can perform indoors. Kukushkin has made big strides this year but is too scratchy a player for me - his defeat last week to Radek Stepanek was abject and Chardy has got more in his locker than what he showed last week. I'm also curious as to why there has been consistent money for Chardy. You'd expect the opposite considering Kukushkin won last week. Perhaps Chardy was ill in Moscow? Kukushkin is from Kazakhstan so I'm not ruling out something '"interesting" going on here too. In any case, Chardy is better than what he showed in Moscow, and I expect him to reverse the form with his lower-ranked opponent. :hope
:cry I've never seen a more blatant tank in my life than what Chardy produced there in that second set. I hope Kukushkin goes on to win this now (for Czech Punter's bet) as the handicap is all but gone. Chardy got a few calls against him, went mental at the umpire and then proceeded to hit all his shots either into the net or wide. One of those things.
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Thanks homunculus and Atko...fact is, Atko, if you watched the match (seems like you did), Chardy was off even in the first set....would not say there is anything shady though, just seemed like he is either carrying an injury or has some other problems - he made 8 double faults, way too much for someone who has serve as a big asset. Anyway, the bet came in for me, although I am obviously sorry for you.

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

Thanks homunculus and Atko...fact is' date=' Atko, if you watched the match (seems like you did), Chardy was off even in the first set....would not say there is anything shady though, just seemed like he is either carrying an injury or has some other problems - he made 8 double faults, way too much for someone who has serve as a big asset. Anyway, the bet came in for me, although I am obviously sorry for you.[/quote'] Nothing shady at all mate. Chardy was fortunate to take the first set but it was the tanking that really annoyed me. In that second set, he hit so many shots that bounced even before they hit the net. Reckon his idea was to let the second set slip by and then come out all guns blazing in the third. Kukushkin, by that point, had found his rhythm again and had the match by the bollocks. No foul play at all, just furious at Chardy's tactics.
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October One WTA parlay for tuesday at Doha (which will be my main betting area this week) Wozniacki (vs Dementieva) x Zvonareva (vs Jankovic) @ Pinnacle 1.85 Jankovic is in poor form lately, being beaten by Jovanovski (China open 3 weeks ago) and Diyas (Kremlin cup, last week). Hard to tell what's wrong with her, perhaps psychological issues or an injury, but Zvonareva should crash her into pieces. Dementieva was playing quite fine in last weeks, making it into final at Torray Pan Pacific Open one month ago, where she was beaten namely by Wozniacki. While Wozniacki won another final since then, Elena lost to Ivanovic in round 3 at China open, and what's more important, she gave away a match (walkover) last week in Luxembourg due to right foot inflammation. She should not win against Wozniacki if she were healthy. With a recent injury, it's totally out of question.

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October I like WAY TOO MANY bets tomorrow :loon, so I am not sure whether I should post all the write-ups here, as to not to spam this thread with my pretty simple rants. IF you would (for any reason) want to read them, you can go to my blog - but I really think that most of the reasoning is pretty straightforward. Wozniacki to win the group 1.72 10/10 Skybet Schiavone to bt. Stosur 1.91 5/10 Pinnacle Zvonareva to bt. Jankovic (-5) 1.88 7/10 Pinnacle Istomin to bt. Marchenko (-3) 1.94 7/10 Pinnacle Tipsarevic to bt. Kunitsyn 1.71 7/10 Pinnacle Hanescu to bt. Zeballos 1.72 7/10 Pinnacle Garcia-Lopez to bt. Berrer (-2.5) 1.95 7/10 Pinnacle Nalbandian to bt. Granollers (-4.5) 1.87 7/10 Pinnacle Nieminen to bt. Serra (-2.5) 1.88 7/10 Pinnacle This can go horribly wrong, but I am willing to risk it :ok Good luck if you follow! :hope

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

i really dont unrstand haase vs Zverev odds... why is Haase favourite an Zverev paying 2.2? is somo kind of injury involved in this match?
No idea, but Zverev does have a history of playing injured, as recently as his match with Juan Monaco in Shanghai two weeks ago. It seems like a match to stay clear of to be honest.
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

- Edouard Roger-Vasselin -2.5 games AH (vs Frederico Gil) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (6/10) LOSS - Jan Hajek (vs Pere Riba) @ 1.862 with Pinnacle (5/10) WIN - Arnaud Clement -2 games AH (vs Albert Montanes) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS - Martin Fischer +2.5 games AH (vs Andreas Seppi) @ 1.943 with Pinnacle (4/10) LOSS
Car crash of a day. Roger-Vasselin really should have won his match, bottling a 4-1 lead. Hajek was a winner, as expected, Clement's not got it any more and Seppi was very solid today indeed. Then there's Chardy... I hope for better tomorrow with Istomin and Garcia-Lopez, plus perhaps a few others. There are a sh!tload of matches tomorrow.
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October Yesterday was fantastic 4 of 5 tennis bets won. Thanks guys, i followed couple of bets from you. : ) So many choices today.. I like some picks and here we go with short arguments because there is way too many matches that i like: Jouan v Dent(-3 AH)@1.98 Pinnacle (7/10) I really like to bet against guys who are older than 23 years and they're not even in top 200. They had buried their careers couple of years a go and haven't got any real weapons as a top 100 players do. The most important of them are self-reliance. This guy is France challengers(mainly qualifications) player and i don't know what he could do against such a experieenced player as Dent. -3 Asian handicap is a gift in my eyes. Schwank to beat [email protected] Pinnacle (5/10) I think it's a time to win for argentinian and opponent is very suitable to do this. He's clay court challengers player who sometimes play in ATP tournaments. In past weeks Schwank hasn't played too many matches but he has grabbed a set from really good players like Verdasco, Garcia - Lopez or Simon. Both players will play on not their favourite surface and everything can happen in this match but it's a 50-50 match for me and i like this offer very much. Garcia-Lopez(-2.5) v Berrer@2 Pinnacle (6/10) Garcia is on big fire lately. H2H is 3-0 in Garcias favour. Spaniard beaten Berrer couple of weeks ago. He rested last week and i think he's resh and hungry now. Everything is in Garcias side and i'm trying this offer with nice price. Tipsarevic(-3 AH) v [email protected] Pinnacle (5/10) It's bet with a bit of risk but i can't see Tipsa loosing third match in a row especially against Kunitsyn who had a dream weak in Moscow. I watched him when he played against Istomin and there where nothing special. Way too many unforced errors, Istomin had a lot chances for a break point. Sloppy return game.. Maybe he was tired but if he play like this today i think Tipsa will crach him in pieces. Yes, Kunistsyn has beaten Golubev and Andreev but they both are clearly out of form. Istomin v Marchenko (Under 22.5)@1.99 Pinnacle (5/10) Istomin had to win the tournament in Moscow. He's in nice form, have great variaton of shots, good serve and everything is working great. Last week they played and there was over but in first set maybe Istomin was a bit lazy and he lost it, but in second and third he crached Marchenko. If Istomin will go to court concentrated on the win, he win this easily. Isner(-4) v [email protected] Pinnacle (4/10) It's a lot of risk but i odds are not rigt in my opinion. Isner is not a return specialist but Paire hasn't got serve at all. He lost about 45 % return games to such a players like Chistopher Rochus and Brezac(he had 18 break points). I think Isner is not worst returner as those two guys and today he'll win this easily. Istomin and Chela parlay(vs Marchenko and Martin)@1.96 Pinnacle (6/10) There is not a lot to say. Both players have to win their matches easily and i can't see a lot of resistance from Marchenko and especially Martin. Good luck for all!! :hope

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October First of all, thanks to Atko for making me looking like some junkie who's putting his last money on tennis match and then accuse it for fixing after lost, especially without giving me right to say something about your conclusions based on what? How do you know how big is my bank, how do you know on which odds did I play my bet, etc etc. I am talking about last week and will not anymore but that match was obvious fix and you shouldn't get rights to banned just because of your unsimphaty even if you are moderator. That's not the way how you should rule this forum. I will forget that and get back to some business. Today we have in Vienna big match ;) Haider - Maurer vs. Muster. Of course Muster results after comeback are lough, but what else can you expect with 43 years in nowadays purely physically tennis. Maurer isn't anything special to clear it immediately but much worse player then him crashed Muster in past few weeks. 2-0 in sets is 1,65 @ betfair but I am little bit worried with Maurer last match because he lost with ret., and then get in main tournament as a lucky looser. Is there anybody who knows the reason of retirement cause I wouldn't like to miss chance like that... From the official page of tournament: http://www.bankaustria-tennistrophy.at/en/news_355.html?mn=1&sm=1-0 Although Muster lived and wrote history here, his first 30-minute training session on Wednesday passed without sentimentality. “I don't live in the past,” said the 43 year old. “To me the hall very fine and beautiful, but that's nothing new.” He was also happy with the surface, deeming it fair and not too quick: “I would have liked such a surface a few years back!” Muster highlighted his level of fitness in the training session with Styrian Christian Magg. Nevertheless he was quick to talk down expectations: “For me it is an honour to be able to play here. I know that I cannot show my full potential just yet. I'm on the right path, but I will have to wait until spring next year to be able to judge my return.” Between now and then he'll face plenty of hard training sessions and tests, and he'll gain even more experience.

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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

First of all' date= thanks to Atko for making me looking like some junkie who's putting his last money on tennis match and then accuse it for fixing after lost, especially without giving me right to say something about your conclusions based on what? How do you know how big is my bank, how do you know on which odds did I play my bet, etc etc. I am talking about last week and will not anymore but that match was obvious fix and you shouldn't get rights to banned just because of your unsimphaty even if you are moderator. That's not the way how you should rule this forum. I will forget that and get back to some business. Today we have in Vienna big match ;) Haider - Maurer vs. Muster. Of course Muster results after comeback are lough, but what else can you expect with 43 years in nowadays purely physically tennis. Maurer isn't anything special to clear it immediately but much worse player then him crashed Muster in past few weeks. 2-0 in sets is 1,65 @ betfair but I am little bit worried with Maurer last match because he lost with ret., and then get in main tournament as a lucky looser. Is there anybody who knows the reason of retirement cause I wouldn't like to miss chance like that... From the official page of tournament: http://www.bankaustria-tennistrophy.at/en/news_355.html?mn=1&sm=1-0 Although Muster lived and wrote history here, his first 30-minute training session on Wednesday passed without sentimentality. “I don't live in the past,” said the 43 year old. “To me the hall very fine and beautiful, but that's nothing new.” He was also happy with the surface, deeming it fair and not too quick: “I would have liked such a surface a few years back!” Muster highlighted his level of fitness in the training session with Styrian Christian Magg. Nevertheless he was quick to talk down expectations: “For me it is an honour to be able to play here. I know that I cannot show my full potential just yet. I'm on the right path, but I will have to wait until spring next year to be able to judge my return.” Between now and then he'll face plenty of hard training sessions and tests, and he'll gain even more experience.
Right mate, let's get a couple of things straight here. I don't care how big your bank is - I never asked. I sympathise with anyone who loses cash, but to lump on in a 250 event in eastern Europe is utter madness, in my opinion. As for the ban, it has been made clear here on numerous occasions that you can't accuse someone of fixing a match on a gambling website, even if you're 100% sure it did happen. Why? Because if the wrong person reads it, then yourself and Punters Lounge get in a whole heap of legal problems. I'll take the example of menstennisforums last week. They took down a whole thread on the Tipsarevic-Zeballos match because it would've got them into serious problems. Twitter, where Tipsarevic has an account, had to remove some posts because Tipsarevic was going to complain about them. I hope you get where I'm coming from. This is not a witchhunt against you, Boycie. I wasn't born yesterday either. I know it goes on. I have benefitted and fallen foul of it over the seasons. But on a gambling website, you can't label someone of being a fixer. If you want to vent your suspicions, be far more cute about it. Is that too much to ask? And as for it being my decision to ban you, well, I'm just going by what everyone who runs this site has been told to do. I don't like doing it, and I'd been impressed by what you'd been posting up here so far, so don't take it personally.
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

Right mate' date=' let's get a couple of things straight here. I don't care how big your bank is - I never asked. I sympathise with anyone who loses cash, but to lump on in a 250 event in [i']eastern Europe is utter madness, in my opinion. As for the ban, it has been made clear here on numerous occasions that you can't accuse someone of fixing a match on a gambling website, even if you're 100% sure it did happen. Why? Because if the wrong person reads it, then yourself and Punters Lounge get in a whole heap of legal problems. I'll take the example of menstennisforums last week. They took down a whole thread on the Tipsarevic-Zeballos match because it would've got them into serious problems. Twitter, where Tipsarevic has an account, had to remove some posts because Tipsarevic was going to complain about them. I hope you get where I'm coming from. This is not a witchhunt against you, Boycie. I wasn't born yesterday either. I know it goes on. I have benefitted and fallen foul of it over the seasons. But on a gambling website, you can't label someone of being a fixer. If you want to vent your suspicions, be far more cute about it. Is that too much to ask? And as for it being my decision to ban you, well, I'm just going by what everyone who runs this site has been told to do. I don't like doing it, and I'd been impressed by what you'd been posting up here so far, so don't take it personally.
Still think it's just a crap because it was so obvious, but as I said, not gonna talk about it anymore. Just will notice you that you were also part of that madness with playing some matches out there.. But its okay, not gonna say to anyone :cheers
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

Still think it's just a crap because it was so obvious, but as I said, not gonna talk about it anymore. Just will notice you that you were also part of that madness with playing some matches out there.. But its okay, not gonna say to anyone :cheers
You're entitled to your opinion mate. I may not fully agree with the rules either, but that's the way it goes on here. And yes, I was stung last week too, although I kept my stakes relatively low. Live and learn, right ;) Anyway, that's it sorted. Let's get back to beating the bookie. Have you got anything for today? I saw your post on Haider-Maurer vs Muster. Surely Muster will lose, even to a lower-ranked player. His challenger results have been dreadful and he's over the hill.
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

You're entitled to your opinion mate. I may not fully agree with the rules either, but that's the way it goes on here. And yes, I was stung last week too, although I kept my stakes relatively low. Live and learn, right ;) Anyway, that's it sorted. Let's get back to beating the bookie. Have you got anything for today? I saw your post on Haider-Maurer vs Muster. Surely Muster will lose, even to a lower-ranked player. His challenger results have been dreadful and he's over the hill.
I was with low stakes too, you will grow one day, don't worry. just keep it like this :ok I am thinking about taking this one on ML with big stake, but cant't find enough info for my taste. He retired on 6-3 3-0 with thigh strain and that can be tricky cause. Don't know, I'm not smart at all....
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Re: Tennis - 25-31 October

I was with low stakes too, you will grow one day, don't worry. just keep it like this :ok I am thinking about taking this one on ML with big stake, but cant't find enough info for my taste. He retired on 6-3 3-0 with thigh strain and that can be tricky cause. Don't know, I'm not smart at all....
Apparently Haider-Maurer retired with an ankle injury, although there's been some conjecture that he knew before his match that Gulbis was going to pull out, and as the highest ranked qualifier, he'd get in as a lucky loser. The only thing that can help Muster is (a) if this injury is bad enough to curtail Haider-Maurer and (b) if the Austrian gets stage fright against the best Austrian player that ever lived, who was probably his idol when growing up. Normally I'd be all over Haider-Maurer -5 games but with those doubts in mind, I'm not sure I can risk it.
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