Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct

[bowles10]

Aintree Stratford Chepstow some decent racing about tomorrow :ok

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct Aintree 16:00 Going for a massive outsider here, one who I think is unexposed at the trip, and could run a race at a big price in Top It All. Rose Dobbin's mount is yet to win and has only finished in the places once, and that was over 2m2f in a novice hurdle three runs ago. Was staying on that day quite nicely, and not surprised they upped him in trip to 3m1f. He went off favourite in that race, and although finishing 8th, ran OK. The main reason why he didn't run very well was that they went an absolute dawdle, the slow pace not suiting, and his jumping suffered because of it. Stayed on adequately at the end showing he does stay this distance. So he should, being closely related to a prolific winner at this class/distance. Returned from the summer break in a race run over an extremely inadequate distance of just over 2miles, which was definitely being used as a tune-up race, possibly even for this contest. Hit a fence and was beat quickly after that, but am willing to draw a line through that. Will have come on for it, and the distance was far too sharp anyway for it to be considered. A mark of 95 may seem to be on the small side for a horse that has scope for improvement at this trip at 3 miles. Rose Dobbin has never had a horse at Aintree, although she hasn't been training that long. She's done well in the past couple of weeks, with a nice winner last Saturday, and all of her runners giving it a good go. At the likely prices, even upwards of 33/1, I'm willing to give Top It All a chance. It's a tough race, and a few are open to improvement as well and some represent powerful connections. Considering this, I'm fairly confident that he can make the first four. Price to be updated in the morning.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct 4.35 AINTREE IRISH RAPORT 7/1 WIN LAD Race for the oldies but i think this horse has plenty still to give and will be following it this year. Goes well fresh and drop back to this trip will suit and looks a major player for the inform NTD yard.

[chris34]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct 2.00 Chepstow Bobbie Magern is well related to Billie Magern, Ollie Magern and Petite Margot and clearly could be just as useful having finished runner up last time out in a novice hurdle, this represents a big drop in class and certainly bred to do better yet! 1pt win Bobbie Magern 3/1 bet365 3.35 Chepstow Captain Chris looked something a little special last year winning 3 novice hurdle events in superb style, toprated in this field by several pounds so on OR has a good task even off top weight. Will enjoy the good ground and should relish the step up in trip which he looks as though he could easily stay. 2pt win Captain Chris 11/8 sj 3.25 Aintree Monets Garden loves it round here with a 50% strike rate around here, consistent and tough front runner who won this fresh last year and has a decent record when going fresh, does meet tough opposition today but his record fresh against others in the field has to be positive along with his safe consistent jumping around a track he likes everything looks poised for another bold show in a race he has won twice in the past 3 years! 1pt win Monets Garden 4/1 pp

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct Aintree 2.10 Master Fong 0.5pt EW - 33/1 Nearby 0.5pt EW - 10/1 Master Fong was a decent handicapper for Barry Hills on the flat and moved to Donald McCain to have a hurdling career. Probably should have won more, but I like his 2nd behind Osric at Bangor. Should be capable of much better and good price on handicap debut worth a try. Nearby won well two weeks ago and there should be a lot more to come. Few of these might need the run and with short priced favorite, the 10/1 on offer represents good EW value. He should be thereabouts even if the fav is too good.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct Chepstow 4.10 Tullamore Dew 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Pistolet Noir 0.75pt EW - 7/1 Tullamore Dew was 2nd in the Coral Cup off 4lbs lower. Goes well fresh and won't mind the rain. Yard is on form and Liam Treadwell keeps the ride. Pistolet Noir was disappointing in the 2nd part of last season when moving to Paul Nicholls, but he has always stressed that he'll improve after the summer and I think the trip and softening ground will suit him.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct Stratford 3.50 FIT TO DRIVE 8/1 bet365 was disappointing 1st time up when pulling up at wetherby, however worth a chance off this lower mark of 123. Notched up a hat trick of wins last year and once on its game could again win a couple this season. Brendan Powell only has the 1 runner today across all the cards.

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct

Aintree 16:00 Going for a massive outsider here, one who I think is unexposed at the trip, and could run a race at a big price in Top It All. Rose Dobbin's mount is yet to win and has only finished in the places once, and that was over 2m2f in a novice hurdle three runs ago. Was staying on that day quite nicely, and not surprised they upped him in trip to 3m1f. He went off favourite in that race, and although finishing 8th, ran OK. The main reason why he didn't run very well was that they went an absolute dawdle, the slow pace not suiting, and his jumping suffered because of it. Stayed on adequately at the end showing he does stay this distance. So he should, being closely related to a prolific winner at this class/distance. Returned from the summer break in a race run over an extremely inadequate distance of just over 2miles, which was definitely being used as a tune-up race, possibly even for this contest. Hit a fence and was beat quickly after that, but am willing to draw a line through that. Will have come on for it, and the distance was far too sharp anyway for it to be considered. A mark of 95 may seem to be on the small side for a horse that has scope for improvement at this trip at 3 miles. Rose Dobbin has never had a horse at Aintree, although she hasn't been training that long. She's done well in the past couple of weeks, with a nice winner last Saturday, and all of her runners giving it a good go. At the likely prices, even upwards of 33/1, I'm willing to give Top It All a chance. It's a tough race, and a few are open to improvement as well and some represent powerful connections. Considering this, I'm fairly confident that he can make the first four. Price to be updated in the morning.

EW @ 28/1 Bet365 BOG

[torn up slip]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct Scoter Fontaine: 5:40 Aintree 2/1 Generally available. Rebecca Curtis had this thing entered all over this week but she has specifically waited for the ground to turn on the soft side before deciding to run here. First run in the colours of Jp Mcmanus and AP takes the ride for the first time. The trainer thinks a great deal of this horse and has been talking about possibly targeting Cheltenham if it all goes to plan so a race like this surely has to be the next stepping stone. If it was trained by one of the big boys it would be half it's price and to me represents a terrific value bet. Edit. After checking it's price it's no longer value. When I was looking through the card last night and projected sp's it was around the 6/1 mark.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct 2:10 Aintree: Cheshire Prince 1pt win 18/1 & Drumshambo 1pt win 20/1 Both Stan James Cheshire Prince won first time out last season and lines up here after a 162 day break, and with Neil King in reasonable form he could pop up at a decent price. Cheshire Prince is lightly raced over hurdles and handles the softer surface. Drumshambo represents Venetia Williams and is another lightly raced sort who handles the soft. He started late last season, yet made a winning start. Drumshambo has plenty of scope for improvement.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct ex PL horse Dhaular Dhar runs in the 5.40 today at Aintree for its 2nd run over hurdles looks to have at least an ew chance based on its effort last season when 2nd at doncaster.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct Aintree 2.10 Mille Chief has to live up to the reputation it gained last year before injury forced it out of the 2 festivals and may need this run after 269 days off the course. Westlin winds is of a similar ilk to the favourite in that it should progress again this season. Ran in the triumph hurdle 13th behind soldatino but ran a good race on its seasonal bow when a close 3rd to l'escort men at chepstow 2 weeks ago its between the 2 for me today and could be the 1-2 in the finish. 3.25 Poquelin has been well touted by Nicholls for this race however its record at aintre puts me off completely with figures of 3-U-7-U. It also faces 3 rivals which are all c/d winners and all have the form to beat poquelin. Albertas run normally needs the race 1st time up but last season proved it could win by landing an ascot race. Monets garden needs a certain type of handling and again a different jockey rides the horse, i am concerned this is no its retirement season and just want it to come home safely. Leaves Tartak and Albertas for me, Tartak is favoured by the weights in this race and this should be a close contest, with Tartak just coming out on top.

[torn up slip]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct I just want to add that I think Ferdy Murphy's horse Watch My Back in the Old Roan chase is a massive price at 25's. Yes it has to run from 6lb out of the weights but Ferdy Murphy and Graham Lee both think an awful lot of this horse.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct LUCCIOLINA 3.05 Chepstow. 0.5 points each way. Chase debut and I think big improvement will be seen. Apparently schooled well and so with no trip and ground worries, and with being around the 20/1 mark, I'd e a player.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct BAILY STORM 4.45 Chepstow. Place Lay. Won last 3 and so done well, but this would be his toughest race to date and with going up in the weights and the ground being softer than ideal, I think he'll struggle today. The current 11/8 about finishing in the 1st 2 is well worth opposing in my opinion.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct DOT'S DELIGHT 3.20 Stratford. 0.5 points each way. Needs to buck ideas up, but has every chance if hitting form at the weights. The trip and ground's not a concern and should get the pace of the race to suit.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct TARTAK 3.25 Aintree. Place Lay. Has the form to go well, but a lack of a recent run could go against him for today. Jumps well enough and no trip and ground worries, but looks a wide open race and with doubts over fitness for this, I'd rather back a couple to finish in front of him.

[stewartd14]

Re: Jump Racing Sat 23rd Oct 5.40 Aintree DHAULAR DHAR For obvious reasons :) Nice debut last year over hurdles, and I think he could be a decent prospect over the sticks. Nice easy 2 miles too.