BBOTD 17th October

[silverhaze]

Hi guys. Hope it's ok to join in with this BBOTD and hope I do it alright. 2.20 Kempton - Plan A. First attempt over jumpy-things :eek but good form on flats. Out of last 3 flat races won 2 and only beaten by a head into 2nd on other. These were over 9 to 12 furlongs so hopefully the stretch to 2m should be ok but IMO :loon this is a nice horse on good form and with good potential. With McCoy on his back I think he has every chance. :hope 0.5pt e/w will update when prices are out

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 17th October 2:00 Newcastle - The Fifth Member - 1pt WIN @ 20/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Talented 6 year old, who on his day would be in with a big shout in this race. He comes here fresh after being unraced for 10 months and making his reappearance at the back end of last month. He ran well for a long time over 1m at Ascot, tried to make the running but got tired, possibly needed the run (never won after a break) and should come here in far better knick. He is effective from 7f to 10f and runs over an 8 furlong trip here under stamina sapping conditions, which if recapturing old abilities, he will thrive on it. His abilities to run further than this trip should come in handy as 1m at the Newcastle track takes a lot of getting and his abilities to stay on well should come in handy here. He has also won on Heavy ground over 7f, placed over 1m and came nowhere over 1m 2f, all from 3 runs on Heavy ground. He should love these conditions and has some classy form along the lines suggesting that a mark of 86 may not be beyond him, despite being 5lbs above his highest winning mark but has placed from 3lbs higher on a couple of occasions. The Fifth Member ran well for a long time last time out, sent off as a 57/1 outsider and hit 10/1 in running but faded tamely, I think he needed the run and should fair out a lot better here. He also tried to make all that day, a tactic that has never paid off for him before. He will more than likely be forced to sit further back today and that could pay dividends. The 2 Johnston horses could take it along at a good gallop and with my selection likely to be close up and potentially able to stay on best of the lot I think he'll go very well and hopefully place at least. He is most effective coming off a strong pace and his jockey Pat Cosgrave has given him similarly effective rides on numerous occasions, he has been on board The Fifth Member for 10 races winning 3 times with 2 seconds and 2 3rd places. Very impressive and they obviously get on well together, hopefully they'll click once again. Cosgrave rides the track very well on the rare occasion that he comes here, he has a 13% strike rate and has 3 rides today. He also does really well when riding for Jim Boyle (great name!), they have a 13% strike rate together. What really interests me is that Jim Boyle is making the guts of a 600 mile round trip from Epsom to Newcastle, a track that he has never visited before. I can't really get my head around it and possibly he feels the track is ideal for a horse like this, there couldn't be any other reason. This is the only horse he brings here and at 20/1 I'm certainly thinking he's overpriced and has good if not solid place claims on his best form, he will relish conditions and comes here fit, fresh and well treated. He's an 8/1 shot in my book and viciously overpriced by the odds compliers, they could be right but I don't think so. Now on to the runners in the race, Osteopathic Remedy has to contend with top weight and had a tough race just over a week ago, he has also never run overly well on this ground and is much more effective in big fields. 7/2 represents now value and he's opposable and bordering on being a lay. Bullwhip is joint top weight, ran poor enough last time out and I'm not sure he'll enjoy the 1m trip in stamina testing conditions, I could be wrong but at 5/1 I can't get involved, especially without Buick on board for Gosden. The 2 Johnston horses, Al Farahidi and Secretive could both be out for the jog, knowing Johnston they probably will be kept for what will be 2 interesting 4 year old campaigns, they have the ability to win here but I'm not sure if this true test will be to their liking although the former won so well on a really tough Pontefract course in soft ground suggesting he could well enjoy this but at 5's I don't want to get on. City Of The Kings is a quick ground horse, has ability but may not be loving conditions here and I wouldn't be too keen on the claimer on board. Arabian Spirit is high enough in the weights, should enjoy conditions but not for me at 11/4, could be vulnerable at this track, came 11 of 11 on only run here off 2lbs higher and he's no value. Faithful Ruler is interesting on his best form but hasn't shown too much of late and not sure if he likes this really soft ground, form suggests not. The last one, Scrapper Smith, takes a big jump in class and has a penalty, he will enjoy conditions but it's a big leap up on all known form and I can't see how he's half the price of my selection. On his best form, The Fifth Member could go very well here, he runs well on the back of a good gallop and has enough speed, stamina and a good attitude to run well here. I think he'll go close if coming back to his old self and I can't see the price hanging around for too long. He's worth small each way stakes in the hope that he is up to his old ability and justifies Boyle's extremely long trip.