LOTD 16th October

[Lars]

3:15 Cheltenham Although you cannot fault the attitude of Barizan. I think he's vulnerable today and think at this short price, he is worth laying. Front-running sort who sets an electric pace with a "catch me if you can" style. Was often caught in the final stages until his last race, a Punchestown Grade 1 where he made all and hacked up. Credit where it's due for that run but such cavalier tactics haven't worked in tough races at Cheltenham. Maybe it's the course or the hill leading up to the finish but I think he might struggle to make all here today and get caught late on. The Nicholls horse looks a decent one on paper and I'd have him as favourite ahead of Barizan. Gilded Age flopped on his only start in decent company but has some decent form in Novice hurdle company and if recreating that, has a chance. Orsippus ran a blinder at Aintree in the spring, but didn't recreate that against Barizan at Punchestown. Maybe it came too soon for him and I'ld be willing to give another chance to beat my lay pick. May hack up, but at that the price, definite lay. 1pt Lay

[Monterosso]

Re: LOTD 16th October 3:15 Cheltenham - Royal Mix - 1pt Lay This looks a tough assignment for the potentially classy Nicholls hurdler, I reckon he'll make a classy sort some day soon but this could be very very tough to win. He made his debut for this yard at the back end of 09 after running on the flat in France. He won well beating subsequent G1 winner Me Voici in the process. That form looks great but when you consider that Me Voici has since finished 19 lengths behind Barizan (who was 2nd) at Aintree in a Group 1 it doesn't stack up too well. Royal Mix faces off with Barizan here and it will be a massive test for him to win here. The Evan Williams trained 4 year old won easily in a G1 at Punchestown when last seen, beating a good field by over 12 lengths. He often flies out in front setting a ferocious gallop and if that happens again here my lay selection will have an awfully tough time. Barizan also has a good record when fresh and may not be in need of the run as badly as the Nicholls import. Another thing to consider is his flat form on quick ground, he never ran too well on quickish ground and it should be very very quick today, playing right into the hands of Barizan. He also handles the track wonderfully and is a C&D winner with 2 second places in Grade 1 and Grade 2 level. Tony McCoy takes the ride and he has a fine record on him with 5 wins from 8 runs with 2 2nd's and a 3rd place. Many others could come into it but I think that Barizan is the one to beat, he holds all the keys to this race and although the Nicholls horse should prove to be a good type I think he is far too short at 3.0. I wouldn't go near him unless I got a significantly larger price. He won't get to dictate and this is a tough track if you're not 100% up to scratch and he may need the run out before tackling that type of opposition. Orsippus is also a Grade 1 winner and he comes into the reckoning too, he has beaten Barizan before but form has since been dramatically reversed. Royal Mix is my lay of the day and I reckon he'll have to be something very special to win against 2 proven Grade 1 performers.