Giro di Lombardia (16 Oct)

[Sasquatch]

Last major race of the season, the Giro di Lombardia. 4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25 (Sportingbet) Gilbert is the defending champion and is the man in form. He won another race yesterday, and he won the same race last year. Last year he won Paris-Tours, Giro del Piemonte (last night) and Giro di Lombardia. This time last year, he gave me a lot of money. He is the favourite and the odds of 4.25 are too long. He should be more like $3. 7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87 (Sportingbet) Richie Porte had to miss the Commonwealth Games because Saxo-Bank wanted him to race this race. Obviously, he is their leader and he will ride like he is. I expect a high performance from Porte. Brajkovic isn't suited to these types of races whereas Porte is. 12 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45 (Sportingbet) Daniel Martin has been preparing for this race. This is a race he wants to win. Will he win it? Who knows. Will he beat Fuglsang who has said that he is fatigued and is not the leader of Saxo? He should do. Martin is the leader of Garmin and Fuglsang is nowhere near the leader of Saxo. This bet should be straight forward. Martin will draw confidence from his win in Poland. 10 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65 (Sportingbet) Cadel Evans is BMC's co leader with Mauro Santambrogio. This finish suits Evans. Nibali on the otherhand, I can't see him winning. This type of race doesn't suit him. 5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09 (Sportingbet) Breschel is co-leader with Porte. He came second in the World's, third yesterday and is in good form. Gilbert should be too strong for Pozzato here. Some outsiders .3 units Sinkewitz @ $51 .3 units Gasparotto @ $51

[ogii55]

Re: Giro di Lombardia (16 Oct) There are better odds for Cadel vs Nibaly 1.909 at Pinny! My pick here for H2H Bertagnoli vs Scarponi (took it 2.35 at Pinny, just mised 2.4, now is avaliable at 2.19 and i think it's still nice value). Both are teammates at Androni team and are also close friends. Next year they will move together to Lampre. Scraponi is a stage racer, finished forth in Giro 2010 and showed great qualities. He made strong earlier season. Finished third last Saturday in common event as Giro Di lombardia - Giro Del'Emilia. Bertagnoli switched himself in last two seasons to one day races. He made great ehat up for this race, finishing 4 times in Top ten since agugust at one day races, that he participate. Two days ago he was second at Giro Del Piemonte just behind Philipe Gilbert in a race where participated bigger part of the main favorites for Giro Di Lombardia. Bertagnioli is better sprinter, while Scraponi is better climber. I think if both of them are in the leading group, Bertagnioli's chances are far bigger, cos the profile of the final km benefits him. As for winner, Gilbert for sure is Top 3 contender Bertagnoli Top 3 Unibet 9.00 Reasoning up :)