LOTD - 15th of October

[Monterosso]

2:45 Cheltenham - Frontier Dancer - 1pt Lay Easy winner in an easy race last time out, this is much tougher despite it being another 4 runner Novices' Chase. He won on soft ground on a right handed track LTO, scoring by 13 lengths, he now comes to a very testing left handed track over tough obstacles. He's a good jumper but on his only spin at this course over hurdles he ended up falling. His record on Good ground is 0 from 5, although he has won on GF. I'm pretty certain that he's better on softer ground and will find it tough against a Nicholls horse who should relish conditions. Rebel Du Maquis made all to win over hurdles when last seen, he now takes to fences and like a lot of Nicholls' first time out Chasers, I expect him to win. Ruby Walsh takes the ride too, he has already won on this fellow when landing a 16 runner novice hurdle by 17 lengths. He won last time out on quick ground and I think he'll find things to his liking today. He has went well after a break before and has previous experience over fences when making his debut in France. He should be primed and ready to take this contest, he looks the likely winner to me and a much better betting proposition than Frontier Dancer is at the moment., he also has to give the Nicholls horse 7lbs which certainly doesn't help. Wolf Moon has big claims on his hurdle form, he likes all ground and stays even further than this trip, I reckon he has a fair chance of going close too and at 5.0 he looks a lot better value than the Twiston-Davies horse. He has also won 2 out of 3 at this course and this jockey gets on very well with him. Gee Dee Nen isn't without a chance but could be outclassed here, not really expecting him to provide too much opposition to the other 3 but who knows. If he wins I'll be more than happy to be wrong. I could be way off the mark with Frontier Dancer here but I feel he is vulnerable in this company and at 3.3 represents no value. The Nicholls horse is a worth favourite and I'd expect he'll be even shorter come tomorrow, hopefully my one drifts.

[Aidymac]

Re: LOTD - 15th of October Prince Rhyddarch - Redcar 1:30 Had a pleasing debut for the new stable last time out but this horse still has not won for over 2 years which has to be a negative. This is an amateur ladies riders race also so it is like a lottery. It could well win but i think Silly Gilly will go well and should take all the beating. Others to consider are Dean Iarracht and Chantilly Pearl who are in good form. The jockey Miss A Deniel has gone 8 rides without even a place so she isnt doing too well of late either. Also has to cope with a 4 pound rise in the weights. Opposable for me 1 Point Lay