Currie Cup Semi Finals

[b10111]

All odds available at William Hill +1.5 Natal Sharks vs Vodacom Blue Bulls -1.5 Sharks outright at 2.1

Well, I may be wrong, I may be, but I think this is Rugby Unions gift of the weekend. Firstly I had the sharks as favourites, but the bookies have gone for the Bulls, a sensible decision as they obviously know that punters will prefer to back the pedigree of the Super 14 champions, but it is also a trap as it gives punters the sense that the Bulls are favourites for the match so that they can lump big which is damn right not true.

I have followed this competition throughout this year and as much as it provides at least one shock result every fortnight most matches are straight forward. The bulk of the shock results have involved a poor Bulls side and their lose to the Pumas, almost losing twice to the Leopards and a serious beat down to the Cheetahs at home, tells me of a game plan that hasn’t been spot on all season. The talk at the moment is Bulls are will nick it, they always play badly in the early stages and peak in time to win the competition even Shark’s fans are running scared, but like Patrick Viera once said, the truth is on the pitch. There is something different about this Bulls side and the law changes have not done their game any favours.

Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield and Pierre Spies hold the biggest threat for the Sharks – they will certainly contest every lineout ball and put Alistair Hargreaves and Steven Sykes under immense pressure.

But the major concern for the Blue Bulls is their midfield defence where Jaco Pretorius seems to be the weak link. With Adrian Jacobs back to full fitness, the midfield defence of the Bulls will be fully tested. The Bulls have a few boosts with spies and Stegmann fit, but the loss of Gurthro Steenkamp is a massive blow to the Blue Bulls’ chances. The Sharks’ all-Springbok front row will certainly target them from the word go.

Bookies have made a lot of money of the Bulls this season and I can guarantee you, by making them favourites for this match they are trying to pull one last dime from punters.

The sharks have been poor travellers but are unbeatable at home and coach John Plumtree knew he wouldn’t win against Province last week so he held back a few of his ace packs. The sharks loose forwards as well as the front row will run an ageing Bulls back raggered and the only way the Bulls can win is if their setpiece game comes together, which might not make much of a difference as I see the Sharks crossing over a number of times.

I was actually hoping for +3.5 line but I would gladly take an outright sharks win. There are 2 things that make me punt on the sharks

1) The Bulls awful form throughout the season

2) The fact that the Sharks beat them at home earlier in the season should give them enough confidence to get the job done at home.

Sharks win, GL:hope

-7.5 Western Province vs Cheetahs +7.5 Cheetahs on +7.5 handicap 1.9

The line suggests straight forward win for Province, the form suggests straight forward win for Province but the Cheetahs are the kind of team that doesn’t quite do straight forward. They pull of the most amazing results when you least expect them, and most of those are done when they are playing away from home. They have racked up the most points and are such a decent outfit, the line of +7.5 is just plain wrong.

The issue for Province is the return of the springboks but players like Habana have been in dreadful form all season, they are unlikely to make a difference.

There is something magical about the Cheetahs when it comes to the Currie Cup playoffs. It is as if they shift over to a higher gear and tend to upstage their more fancied opponents with consistent regularity. Ashley Johnson, Hennie Daniller and the front row "twins", WP Nel and Coenie Oosthuizen, have been the dangermen in the Cheetahs’ attack and seem to grow in stature week after week after week

Province suffered their mid season stumble at the right time and must be glad its over, and I agree they must win this game but I think the fact that they didn’t beat the Sharks by a huge score last weekend convinces me that they can’t give the Cheetahs a beat down. With Juan Smith and CJ van der Linde back for the Cheetahs, the rest of their team-mates won’t need any motivation to upstage their hosts at Newlands. They did it during the league stages of the competition and will believe that they can do it again.

Cheetahs will run it close and could even nick it. I’m happy to take them on the +7.5 handicap

GL:hope