LOTD - 12th of October

[Monterosso]

3:20 Huntingdon - Thai Vango - 1pt Lay From the in-form Twiston-Davies yard, easy winner last time out but that was over fences over a trip 4f shorter. He's obviously in good knick and it was a career best effort to win off 105 but there are too many things against him in my opinion and 2.84 is far too short. He hasn't ran over hurdles for 2 years, only has had 4 career starts over them and never got within 16 lengths of the winner. On his only Handicap Hurdle start he was beaten by 23 lengths in a similar quality race to his and that was off an 11lb lower mark. He has never won back to back races and has been beaten at shortish prices on a number of occasions. He has only ever tried this 3m 2f trip on one occasion before and was well beaten by 41 lengths. Despite the yard being in such good form and the horse obviously in good knick I find it hard to this 2.84 is value for a 9 year old racing over hurdles for the first time in 2 years, there is some decent opposition in this race too and I think that Pairc Na Gcapall at 9.4 is superior value and my idea of the most likely winner, he will stay the trip and has been in good form of late, he likes to plod along from the front and if his jumping doesn't let him down he'll be hard to pass. AP McCoy's horse should have a good chance now on more suitable ground and many others could come into it too. Maximum lay for this one, I could be way off the mark but I wouldn't go near him unless I got 5/1 or bigger, solely based on his previous hurdling exploits.

[Aidymac]

Re: LOTD - 12th of October Yair Hill - Leicester 2:10 I feel myself that Marked Card and Blue Deer are the most likely winners of the race. Marked Card won very easily last time out, wasnt even given the whip and Blue Deer has Fallon on board and looks progressive! Yair Hill has claims as he is a big horse woith conditions to suit but at 3.1 i feel its too short and has to be a lay for me 1 Point Lay