Flat Racing - 10th October

[Monterosso]

2:35 Goodwood - Avertor - 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365) Unexposed 4 year old who has only had 7 career runs to date, he has only won once when winning a maiden on his second start, he went in to handicaps off a mark of 83 and flattered to deceive when coming plum last on his first 2 handicap runs. He got to grips with business when coming 3rd of 15 over 5f at Haydock after being dropped 3lbs. That was an impressive run over a trip that he may not be quick enough for and he was upped to 6f next time out on very testing ground, similar to today. He came 2nd of 17, 2 lengths behind R Woody, who he re-opposes here with a 7lb swing in his favour. That pair were well clear of the rest in a hot handicap. He was then dropped back to 5 furlongs for a class 3 event at Haydock, he ran reasonably well on quick-ish ground and finished 5th of 12. Cheveton ran in that race and came 2nd, just 1 length ahead of my selection. He has franked the form of that race to no end but he could of won it quite easily if he had a clear passage so the 1 length gap between he and my selection would and should of been significantly more. Now that Avertor is stepped up to 6f again and racing on slow ground I think he has a big chance of showing his true abilities here, he has only raced 4 times this season and should still be fresh in comparison to a lot of these who have had long tough seasons. He's drawn in stall 4 which isn't ideal but with plenty of pace not far from him I think he should get a reasonable sit in behind the leaders and hopefully run on inside the final furlong to lead, he did make all in his maiden win but I doubt similar tactics could be applied from stall 4 and with a couple of other front runners in the field. Avertor is trained by the wonderful Robert Charlton who has witnessed his stable come right into form in recent times and he has a 22% strike rate in the past month after having numerous winners. He usually does very well when sending horses to Goodwood and he has a good 17% strike rate here and 5 out of 13 sent here this year have ended up in the winners enclosure. Steve Drowne takes the ride on Avertor as he has done on all bar 1 of his career starts, he should know exactly what to do with this fellow. Drowne is riding well of late and has a 21% strike rate on course when riding horses over 4 years old for Charlton, I also think he's a very good jockey over the shorter distances and in what looks likely to be a tactical affair he could well be a massive benefit to this horse on such a tricky track like Goodwood. I'm also interested that Robert Charlton now reaches for the Blinkers on this gelding, he has pulled strongly and hung on a number of occasions and if the blinkers have the desired effect it may just bring out some more ability in this horse. He certainly has conditions to suit today and has been nibbled at over night having moved from 8's into his current price of 7/1. He's 9/2 second favourite in my book and at 7's with 1/4 the odds paid he's worth a decent each way stake. He certainly has the ability to do well here and will eventually prove to be a better horse than his mark of 82, I hope that's today but knowing my luck it won't be. I'll take a chance anyways and he's my only selection for the day.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing - 10th October 4.55 GOODWOOD~SARAH PARK 25/1 E/W LAD Highly tried since CD winner here just over a year ago and should to better now dropped back to this grade. Trainer in good form. 25's is much to big imo and i can't see it lasting. Good e/w bet at current price imo. Having a bad run of late i'm going to take a break for a month or so if this isn't placed.