Jumps Racing - 10th October

[Monterosso]

4:35 Limerick - Tinakellylad - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) Talented 6 year old hurdler turned chaser who on his day has all the ability in the world, he has quite a lot of decent form including a 4 1/2 length 2nd place to the impressive Sizing Europe in a Novice Chase in 2009 on testing ground. He has a tendency to make the odd jumping mistake which costs him from running better than he can but he shaped well after a 6 month lay off to come 4th of 13 in a Handicap Chase over 3 miles at Gowran Park 8 days ago. He only made one jumping mistake that day and it seemed he was out to regain his fitness more than anything, he now runs off the same mark of 125 in this race carrying a featherweight of 10 stone in this hot contest. David Casey gets the ride and he's a jockey who has done me a good turn on numerous occasions he's very talented in my opinion and has a decent 11% strike rate when riding for Mouse Morris who trains this fellow. Casey is 3 from 9 (33%) when riding for Morris at Limerick and he comes here for only 1 ride today. They have also teamed up to win this race previously, when landing the spoils in 2001 with Foxchapel King. This is only the 2nd time they team up for a runner in this race so hopefully it's a lucky omen. The Morris yard do very well at Limerick with their chaser, they've a 23% strike rate and a massive profit of £68 to £1 level stakes. With the prospect of rain in Limerick the ground could get a bit softer, it's currently Good (Good to Yielding in places). Any extra softening in the ground will suit my selection to no end and he would prove massively overpriced should the ground change. He should have no problems as it stands either. Tinakellylad will stay the trip without problem, he's unexposed over this 3 mile trip having only raced over it on 4 occasions with form reading 0-3-2-4. The duck egg came on rapid ground which ruled him out straight away and it was over hurdles. He likes to race reasonably prominent so if he can get his jumping right for the day he should stand a very good chance of being in the frame come the final couple of jumps, he certainly has enough ability to do so. He has everything going for him here today and should strip a lot fitter for having that run at Gowran Park. 14/1 is far too big in my opinion and I had him down as an 8/1 shot. It's a very tough a grueling race but if all goes to plan he will have good place claims at least, now carrying his lightest weight in a race ever. Weight is key over these longer distances and with Casey on board only doing 10st I feel his chances have dramatically increased, he's up against some classy animals here but should be able to put it up to them. 4 places are being paid too which is a massive plus and with a clear round I think he could win the race, if he makes mistakes he'll be punished and probably finish nowhere. At the odds he's worth a small each way bet and I think he will run well.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Racing - 10th October Ffos Las 4.30 Rio Gael 0.75pt EW - 7/1 This is a better race than those he's been contesting over the summer, but I like the yard's novices going into handicap company. 117 could be a fair mark. Two starts ago he finished 2nd to a Swinbank horse both finishing miles clear of the rest. Last time out he again finished 2nd to Garry Moore horse, who won since. With Hobbs in such great form we get Exulto underpriced. Points Of View has been in great form, but is now racing in the 130s and I think handicapper finally caught him lto. Gloucester could run a race if he gets good pace, but he just doesn't like to get his head infront and is not one to trust. From the rest I think Enlightment will find this too quick back over hurdles. Bolton Hall and Disdasha are on a career high marks, while Black Jack Blues is top weight and will possibly need the run. Rio Gael should improve for this handicap debut and in 8 runner field, makes a good EW appeal.