Valiant23 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Explanation Kansas City have W3 ATS Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ 1.990 St. Louis have W3 ATS St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3) @ 2.03 Cleveland have W2 ATS Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns @ 1.935 Green Bay have L2 ATS Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins @ 1.971 New York Jets have W3 ATS Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ NY Jets @ 1.971 5 x 10pt bets=50pts staked :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick121212 Posted October 11, 2010 Share Posted October 11, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL I know the results for the last game hasn't come in yet but I'm liking this system. It seems a very good simple idea and I've got my fingers crossed :hope for you mate. I'm interested to see how the NBA one goes, although I reckon NFL has more chance of success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 11, 2010 Author Share Posted October 11, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Thanks Rick. When I did the NBA one a couple of years ago it was going very well until the All Star game, and then it went to pot. I lost faith in it but I also realise I didn't give it long enough to see where it took me, plus this time I'll have a complete season to go at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 12, 2010 Author Share Posted October 12, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Explanation Kansas City have W3 ATS Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7) @ 1.990 :dude St. Louis have W3 ATS St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3) @ 2.03 :dude Cleveland have W2 ATS Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns @ 1.935 :dude Green Bay have L2 ATS Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins @ 1.971 :eyes New York Jets have W3 ATS Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ NY Jets @ 1.971 :eyes 5 x 10pt bets=50pts staked :hope A FG that hit the post and an INT away from a 5-0 start. 3 wins 2 losses 50pts staked 59.55pts returned Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 109.55 Total staked : 50 Number of bets : 5 Winning bets : 3 Losing bets : 2 Push bets: 0 Strike rate : 60% Yield : 19.1% Profit (or Loss) : 9.55pts For My Info Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salparadise Posted October 13, 2010 Share Posted October 13, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Hi Valiant Where do you get the stats for teams that have won or lost against the spreads? Looks like an interesting system, have to say that Ive never bet on american sports but am always interested in new things. GL :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 13, 2010 Author Share Posted October 13, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL HI mate. http://www.statfox.com/default.htm This is what I use as a default, although if the lines I get a result on are different, then I take my own records into account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 16, 2010 Author Share Posted October 16, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Baltimore have W2 ATS Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-2.5) @ 1.935 New Orleans have L4 ATS New Orleans (-4) @ Tampa Bay @ 1.917 NY Jets have W4 ATS NY Jets @ Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ 1.943 Washington have W2 ATS Indianapolis Colts -3 @ Washington Redskins @ 1.917 Jacksonville have W2 ATS Tennessee Titans -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2.11 5 x 10pt bets = 50pts staked :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 20, 2010 Author Share Posted October 20, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Baltimore have W2 ATS Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-2.5) @ 1.935 :dude New Orleans have L4 ATS New Orleans (-4) @ Tampa Bay @ 1.917 :dude NY Jets have W4 ATS NY Jets @ Denver Broncos (+3.5) @ 1.943 :eyes Washington have W2 ATS Indianapolis Colts -3 @ Washington Redskins @ 1.917 :\ PUSH Jacksonville have W2 ATS Tennessee Titans -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2.11 :dude 5 x 10pt bets = 50pts staked :hope 3 wins 1 loss 1 push (stake returned) 50pts staked 69.63pts returned Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 129.18 Total staked : 100 Number of bets : 10 Winning bets : 6 Losing bets : 3 Push bets: 1 Strike rate : 60% Yield : 29.18% Profit (or Loss) : 29.18pts For My Info Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage ) Pretty good start. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 22, 2010 Author Share Posted October 22, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Cincinnati have L2 ATS Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Atlanta @ 1.935 Cleveland have L2 ATS Cleveland (+13) @ New Orleans @ 1.962 Buffalo have L2 ATS Buffalo (+13) @ Baltimore @ 1.917 New England have W2 and San Diego L2 New England @ San Diego (-3) @ 2.15 Denver have L2 ATS Oakland @ Denver (-9) @ 2.09 Green Bay have L4 ATS Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2.5) @ 1.909 Dallas have L2 ATS New York Giants @ Dallas (-3.5) @ 2.01 7 x 10pt bets=70pts staked :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Very nice start so far mate :ok I must say of all the systems I've seen posted up lately this is the one that intrigues me most (which is in no way a statement of other systems, more a reflection of what I look for in a bet). Just a couple of questions, if you don't mind: 1) Do you know where to get historical data? I've looked at the link mentioned in here, but was hoping there was a site that offered all NFL lines for previous seasons. I'm keen to have a look at how things are going. 2) Were you planning on running this for the NBA this season? I've had a medium sized look at the contrary thread and saw you had some moderate success with it, though it looked to me (on just a casual glance I must say) as though you used the wrong number of streaks as your criteria (i.e. opposing win/loss streaks of 3+ rather than 2+). I know you did mention something about not knowing the average winning and lossing ATS streaks for the NBA (whereas you did the NFL) and was curious if you ever investigated further. GL tonight. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick121212 Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL 1) Do you know where to get historical data? I've looked at the link mentioned in here, but was hoping there was a site that offered all NFL lines for previous seasons. I'm keen to have a look at how things are going. Covers.com might help you with that mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Covers.com might help you with that mate.For surrent data I use Statfox directly - Covers used to use a 'skinned' version of Statfox but then I had a lot of trouble accessing it so after a bit of a search I use Statfox.com. Very nice start so far mate :ok I must say of all the systems I've seen posted up lately this is the one that intrigues me most (which is in no way a statement of other systems, more a reflection of what I look for in a bet). Just a couple of questions, if you don't mind: 1) Do you know where to get historical data? I've looked at the link mentioned in here, but was hoping there was a site that offered all NFL lines for previous seasons. I'm keen to have a look at how things are going. 2) Were you planning on running this for the NBA this season? I've had a medium sized look at the contrary thread and saw you had some moderate success with it, though it looked to me (on just a casual glance I must say) as though you used the wrong number of streaks as your criteria (i.e. opposing win/loss streaks of 3+ rather than 2+). I know you did mention something about not knowing the average winning and lossing ATS streaks for the NBA (whereas you did the NFL) and was curious if you ever investigated further. GL tonight. :hope Crouch, thanks for the comments. 1. I struggled to find historical data in a format I was comfortable with, but thankfully I came across this site; http://www.repole.com/sun4cast/data.html#dataprior which has game lines and scores going back to 1978. I'm slowly going through it year by year (currently working on 1981) but the results at this early stage look encouraging. 2. Regarding the NBA, I started off using 2+ streaks but after so long it seemed to be causing a leak so I went to 3+. This coming season I will probably go back to basics and just trail the 2+ streaks. When I've finished backtesting the NFL I'll look into the NBA in a similar fashion. I know that there isn't a Q3, but just thought I'd mention the College football - without checking this weeks results, this is going badly. In fact, its going so badly that I believe that it may be profitable doing the opposite and instead of opposing the streaks, I think that you could win by betting on winning teams and opposing the losing teams (ATS of course). The question is, with the large number of College football games, just how profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Thanks mate. Just on the College system, I do wonder if the nature of it makes the system less effective. Right now I'm trying to get into the NFL, but I don't have a great understanding of it. That said, there's no draft in the College system, and I'm wondering if this and the fact it's not a top professional league undermines the principals of the system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 27, 2010 Author Share Posted October 27, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL I have to be honest I have very little understanding of the college system, and I also have little faith in a 'competition' that is decided on votes. In short, you could be right. :ok Cincinnati have L2 ATS Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Atlanta @ 1.935 :eyes Cleveland have L2 ATS Cleveland (+13) @ New Orleans @ 1.962 :dude Buffalo have L2 ATS Buffalo (+13) @ Baltimore @ 1.917 :dude New England have W2 and San Diego L2 New England @ San Diego (-3) @ 2.15 :eyes Denver have L2 ATS Oakland @ Denver (-9) @ 2.09 :eyes :rollin:rollin Green Bay have L4 ATS Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2.5) @ 1.909 :dude Dallas have L2 ATS New York Giants @ Dallas (-3.5) @ 2.01 :eyes 7 x 10pt bets=70pts staked :hope 3 wins 4 losses 70pts staked 57.88pts returned Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 117.06 Total staked : 170 Number of bets : 170 Winning bets : 9 Losing bets : 7 Push bets: 1 Strike rate : 52.94% Yield : 10.035% Profit (or Loss) : 17.06pts For My Info Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted October 31, 2010 Author Share Posted October 31, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Denver have L3 ATS Denver WIN* @ San Francisco 49ers @ 2.270 Detroit have W3 ATS Washington Redskins WIN** @ Detroit Lions @ 2.370 New York Jets have W5 ATS Green Bay Packers (+6) @ New York Jets @ 2.010 St. Louis have W2 ATS Carolina Panthers WIN*** @ St. Louis Rams @ 2.07 Miami have W2 and Cincinnati have L3 ATS Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1) @ 1.962 Kansas City have W2 ATS Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1.926 Tennessee have W3 and San Diego have L3 ATS Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-5) @ 1.962 Tampa Bay have L2 ATS Tampa Bay Buccs (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 2.100 Seattle have W2 ATS Seattle Seahawks @ THE MIGHTY Oakland Raiders (-2.5) @ 1.98 Houston have L2 ATS Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1.943 10 x 10pt bets=100pts staked I have stated in the past that if the spread was less than +3 then I would always take the win. The actual spreads are below. * Denver +2.5 ** Washington +2.5 *** Carolina +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 2, 2010 Author Share Posted November 2, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Denver have L3 ATS Denver WIN* @ San Francisco 49ers @ 2.270 :eyes Detroit have W3 ATS Washington Redskins WIN** @ Detroit Lions @ 2.370 :eyes New York Jets have W5 ATS Green Bay Packers (+6) @ New York Jets @ 2.010 :dude St. Louis have W2 ATS Carolina Panthers WIN*** @ St. Louis Rams @ 2.07 :eyes Miami have W2 and Cincinnati have L3 ATS Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1) @ 1.962 :eyes Kansas City have W2 ATS Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1.926 :dude Tennessee have W3 and San Diego have L3 ATS Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-5) @ 1.962 :dude Tampa Bay have L2 ATS Tampa Bay Buccs (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 2.100 :dude Seattle have W2 ATS Seattle Seahawks @ THE MIGHTY Oakland Raiders (-2.5) @ 1.98 :dude Houston have L2 ATS Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1.943 :eyes 10 x 10pt bets=100pts staked I have stated in the past that if the spread was less than +3 then I would always take the win. The actual spreads are below. * Denver +2.5 ** Washington +2.5 *** Carolina +1 5 wins 5 losses 100pts staked 99.78pts returned Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 116.84 Total staked : 270 Number of bets : 27 Winning bets : 14 Losing bets : 12 Push bets: 1 Strike rate : 51.85% Yield : 6.237% Profit (or Loss) : 16.84pts For My Info Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 6, 2010 Author Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Chicago have L2 and Buffalo have W2 ATS Chicago Bears (-3) @ Buffalo Bills @ 2.01 Houston have L3 ATS San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans WIN @ 2.29 Detroit have W4 ATS New York Jets (-4) @ Detroit Lions @ 1.909 Miami have W3 ATS Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5) @ 1.98 New England have W2 ATS New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (+4) @ 1.935 Oakland have W2 ATS Kansas City WIN @ Oakland Raiders @ 1.98 Dallas have L4 and Green Bay have W2 Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1.943 7 x 10pt bets = 70pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Chicago have L2 and Buffalo have W2 ATS Chicago Bears (-3) @ Buffalo Bills @ 2.01 PUSH :\ Houston have L3 ATS San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans WIN @ 2.29 :eyes Detroit have W4 ATS New York Jets (-4) @ Detroit Lions @ 1.909 :eyes Miami have W3 ATS Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5) @ 1.98 :dude New England have W2 ATS New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns (+4) @ 1.935 :dude Oakland have W2 ATS Kansas City WIN @ Oakland Raiders @ 1.98 :eyes :D Dallas have L4 and Green Bay have W2 Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1.943 :eyes 7 x 10pt bets = 70pts staked 2 winners 4 losers 1 push 70pts staked 49.15pts returned Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 95.99 Total staked : 340 Number of bets : 34 Winning bets : 16 Losing bets : 16 Push bets: 2 Strike rate : 47.05% Yield : -1.179% Profit (or Loss) : -4.01pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Cincinnati have L5 and Indianapolis W2 ATS Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1.962 Houston have L4 ATS Houston Texans WIN @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2.10 Minnesota have L3 ATS Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Chicago Bears @ 1.962 Detroit have W5 ATS Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (-2) @ 1.909 Jets have L2 and Cleveland have W2 ATS New York Jets (-4) @ Cleveland Browns @ 2.10 Carolina have L2 and Tampa Bay have W2 ATS Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1.909 St Louis have W3 ATS St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ 1.971 Seattle have L2 ATS Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 2.15 Dallas Cowboys have L5 and Giants have W2 ATS Dallas Cowboys (+13.5) @ New York Giants @ 1.935 Philadelphia have L2 ATS Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins @ 2.00 10 x 10pt bets= 100pts staked :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Cincinnati have L5 and Indianapolis W2 ATS Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1.962 :dude Houston have L4 ATS Houston Texans WIN @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2.10 :eyes Minnesota have L3 ATS Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Chicago Bears @ 1.962 :eyes Detroit have W5 ATS Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (-2) @ 1.909 :unsure Jets have L2 and Cleveland have W2 ATS New York Jets (-4) @ Cleveland Browns @ 2.10 :dude Carolina have L2 and Tampa Bay have W2 ATS Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1.909 :eyes St Louis have W3 ATS St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ 1.971 :eyes Seattle have L2 ATS Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 2.15 :dude Dallas Cowboys have L5 and Giants have W2 ATS Dallas Cowboys (+13.5) @ New York Giants @ 1.935 :dude Philadelphia have L2 ATS Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins @ 2.00 :dude 10 x 10pt bets= 100pts staked :hope 5 winners 4 losers 1 push 100pts staked 111.47pts returned Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 107.46 Total staked : 440 Number of bets : 44 Winning bets : 21 Losing bets : 20 Push bets: 3 Strike rate : 47.73% Yield : 1.695% Profit (or Loss) : 7.46pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Oakland have W3 ATS Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) @ 2.11 Houston have L5 ATS Houston Texans (+6) @ New York Jets @ 1.99 Carolina have L3 ATS Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5) @ 2.03 Green Bay have W3 and Minnesota have L4 ATS Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ 2.04 Jacksonville have W2 ATS Cleveland Browns WIN @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2.07 Kansas City have L3 ATS Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8) @ 1.99 New Orleans have W2 ATS Seattle Seahawks (+11.5) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1.917 St. Louis have W4 ATS Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ St. Louis Rams @ 1.909 Tampa Bay have W3 ATS Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) @ 1.962 San Diego have W2 ATS Denver Broncos (-8.5) @ San Diego Chargers @ 1.952 10 x 10pt bets = 100pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL San Diego have W2 ATS Denver Broncos (-8.5) @ San Diego Chargers @ 1.952 Correction: Denver +8.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Oakland have W3 ATS Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) @ 2.11 :dude :cry Houston have L5 ATS Houston Texans (+6) @ New York Jets @ 1.99 :dude Carolina have L3 ATS Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5) @ 2.03:eyes Green Bay have W3 and Minnesota have L4 ATS Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ 2.04:eyes Jacksonville have W2 ATS Cleveland Browns WIN @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 2.07:eyes Kansas City have L3 ATS Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8) @ 1.99:dude New Orleans have W2 ATS Seattle Seahawks (+11.5) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1.917:eyes St. Louis have W4 ATS Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ St. Louis Rams @ 1.909:dude Tampa Bay have W3 ATS Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) @ 1.962:eyes San Diego have W2 ATS Denver Broncos (-8.5) @ San Diego Chargers @ 1.952:eyes 10 x 10pt bets = 100pts staked Correction: Denver +8.5 4 winners 6 losers 100pts staked 79.99pts returned No Of Bets 54 Bets Won 25 Bets Lost 26 Total Staked 540 Returns 527.45 Profit/Loss -12.55 Strike Rate 46.3 Yield -2.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Re: Tribute To NFL Minnesota have L5 ATS Minnesota Vikings WIN @ Washington Redskins @ 1.98 Tennessee have L3 ATS Tennessee Titans (+6.5) @ Houston Texans @ 1.935 Jacksonville have W3 and NY GIants have L2 ATS Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants (-7) @ 1.962 Tampa Bay have W4 ATS Tampa Bay Buccs @ Baltimore Ravens (-9) @ 2.13 San Diego have W3 ATS San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ 2.11 5 x 10pt bets = 50pts staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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