BBOTD - Thursday 7th October

[wizzkid walter]

6:40 Wolverhampton - Ezra Church - Back This looks a really poor maiden and seems to be at the mercy of Ezra Church. His 2nds in 3 of his last 6 starts look standout in the context of this race and he should be able to justify favouritism here 1pt win @ sp

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 7th October 3:35 Exeter - Prophete De Guye - 1pt @ 5/1 (PaddyPower - BOG) Fairly exposed 7 year old having had 32 starts in a career that started at the end of '07, he is still improving though and won twice over the larger obstacles during the summer winning off mark of 91 and 99, both those wins came on Good ground but he handles all ground and it should be bordering on Good today, possibly will have a bit of juice in it but that should be no bother. He was prone to a lot of jumping mistakes in recent campaigns which is the reason he only had 1 career win before 2010 but he seems to have cut down on those this season bar last time out when he hit the last fence after coming behind the leader absolutely cruising, he got in very close to the fence and ran on at one pace after that and finished 2.5 lengths behind Pairc Na Gcapall. If he didn't make that mistake I'm fully sure he'd of been even closer and more than likely he would of won the race, that was over 3m 1f and now he steps back a furlong to 3 miles, that will also be in his favour and he has won over this distance before. Prophete De Guye comes to Exeter for the first time in his career, he should be suited by its galloping nature and testing hills, it's a right handed course and although all his wins have been gained going left handed he has numerous good efforts going right and could have a good chance to gain his another victory here. He's trained by James Evans who hasn't been in the best of form of late but his Chasers have done quite well this year with 5 wins from 16 runs in 2010 giving him a 31% strike rate this year. He hasn't visited Exeter for 2 years and has only had 9 runners here all in all and I think he may just think this is the ideal place to run his 7 year old gelding. Felix De Giles takes the ride and he knows this fellow very well, he has ridden him on 12 occasions including his 3 wins followed by 6 more placed efforts which is highly impressive. De Giles is a good jockey who has a 28% strike rate when riding in Chases for James Evans and a 22% strike rate at this course, both highly impressive stats and both will hopefully be added to come tomorrow afternoon. He goes here for only 2 rides today and this fellow is his best chance of a winner, in my opinion and with a bit of luck and some solid jumping I think he should go very well with conditions likely to suit. 5/1 looks generous and he was a well backed 3/1 favourite last time out and that's the price I had him at for this race too. It doesn't look the toughest of races with many out of form horses competing here and Prophete De Guye could yet have another win in him from this mark of 104. I expect him to run very well and he's worth small/medium stakes at a nice price.