BBOTD - Sat 2nd October

[StuSimmy]

15:40 Newmarket - The Cambridgeshire This really does look a mouth-watering handicap and many of these have claims. I could write about half the horses in the field and still maybe not find the winner but I am pretty confident I have picked out a horse that represents value and should stand in with a good chance of landing the race. Walter Swinburn's Absinthe has come on leaps and bounds so far in 2010 after running twice as a 2 year old in 2008 and three times as a 3 year old in 2009 without a win. He did notch up a few places in those 2 years including a very good half length 2nd to Hanoverian Baron last year (10f at Sandown in GS conditions) and that horse has since won three times and is now 20lbs higher than that win. He was not on the track too often as a 2 and 3 year old having only had 5 runs before this season. He also placed on his return in 2010 when he was 3/9 at Kempton over 10 furlongs. That was back in April and he returned to turf in August where he win a class four handicap off a mark of 79. That race was over 10 furlongs at Sandown in Good To Firm ground, the form of that race isn't the greatest, two have come out the race to win in handicap company since (3rd and 6th place) and one has went on to win a claimer (4th) which is nothing to shout home about. 18 days later Absinthe won another class four handicap, this time at Windsor over 10 furlongs and in soft ground. Won by 2 lenghts but the margin would have been more if he wasn't eased down. This was off a mark of 83 and he has been hit heavily for the win with a 9lb rise but the fact that there is certainly more to come from this horse then there is no reason why he won't be winning off this sort of mark. Whether that day is today or not is a different question but I believe this improving gelding has every chance in this race and he is in no way out of his depth in this race, especially when its clear that he is progressing well, but in a race with such a big field luck can play a big part in how the outcome pans out. 5 races on turf has resulted in 2 wins, a 2nd and two 3rds so its clear hes at his best on turf. Has won with cut in the ground so todays soft going will definitely suit him which is a plus. The fact he had just the one run in April before reappearing last month makes me believe that Walter Swinburn always had this race in mind for the horse and with two wins under his belt his plan may just unfold if his horse can win today. The drop in trip is my only concern about the horses chances as he has yet to even attempt the 9 furlong trip despite winning over 10 furlongs but surely the trainer wouldn't be running him in this race if he thought he wasn't going to get the trip. E/W Absinthe @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG - 1,2,3,4)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Sat 2nd October 1:55 Newmarket - Blessed Biata - .5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Well bred 2 year old who is closely related to five winners including German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino. She made her debut at Kempton over 6f, it took her quite a while to get used to her new surroundings and she didn't get going until late on. She was held up near the rear of the field and wasn't really travelling, she was then under pressure 2f out but eventually started to eat up the ground from just outside the 1f marker to fly home late to grab 4th place. That wasn't the strongest of maidens by any means but her run was quite eye catching and she should certainly come on in leaps and bounds for having had that experience. This is certainly a huge jump up from that class 4 maiden but if she proves as classy as some of her relatives she could just outrun her price tag and ground that may be to her liking due to her sires record of producing some decent soft ground animals. This may be a complete shot in the dark but she's now stepped up to 7f and on the back of a good gallop her impressive stamina should kick in and hopefully she could run on for a place, her action gave me the impression that the soft ground may prove to be an ideal surface for her and she has a good draw in stall 14. This is a huge step up in class for Blessed Biata but I certainly expect she could be a decent sort next year and is worth keeping an eye on between now and then. She seems to have a good turn of foot and with an emphasis on stamina on the testing ground of a galloping track she may just have the ability to outrun her price tag in this big race. She's trained by the wonderful William Haggas who'd be prone to the odd big priced winner and I'd expect she'll be well primed for this after having her debut run 4 weeks ago. Haggas has a decent record at the course and Liam Jones takes the ride, he has a very impressive level stakes profit at this course and a good 14% strike rate and a 42% strike rate over this C&D, not that it really matters! He's a jockey I rate quite highly and if he can get this filly settled she could have an outside chance of grabbing a place. Together, from the AP O'Brien yard is certainly the one to beat but at 9/4 I think she's opposable despite her impressive run behind White Moonstone last time out, I also think she needs 1 mile at least and the drop back to 7f isn't ideal. I'm going to take a punt and back the Haggas filly at odds that are too big to me. She is a 16/1 shot in my book and should have a lot more to come. 40/1 is above and beyond what I'd expect to back her at and she's worth a small each way bet to cause a shock. Hopefully she doesn't come last.