CloughandTaylor
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Posts posted by CloughandTaylor
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Early games are very difficult to predict until 5-6 games played, pre-season injuries & transfer window still open will see teams struggling early being a better proposition in mid september.
For that reason i will have small plays on the over 2.5 goals market today.
Nottm Forest. 1.94 Betfair Ex.
Blackburn. 1.94 Betfair Ex.
Good luck to all.
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Huddersfield make 10 changes at Brum, there are surely rules to stop this.
Brum miss early penalty though should see off the reserves despite brum being so crap.
Wonder if Harry`s dog has delivered a brown paper bag to the Udders boardroom.
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Some very rare value around today in my opinion and not what we tend to see at this stage of the season, going to break with tradition and have a few pokes.
Going to list the odds and bracket the computer odds of the games of interest below, any win bet that looks optimistic will hopefully be covered by LAYS of the teams at poor odds.
Birmingham 2.55. (3.45) v Huddersfield 2.4. (3.0)
Lay Brum @ 2.56 BF.
Birmingham made a poor decision to sack Rowett and matched it with the choice of Redknapp for final three games, a proper lay despite home advantage. Both teams have all to play for so have to come down on the side of seasonal performance.
Blackburn 2.1. (2.66) v Aston Villa 3.9. (3.1)
Lay Blackburn @ 2.12 BF.
Blackburn impressed me at Forest two weeks ago, shutting up shop and scoring with a dead ball situation to win 1-0, not performed like that since so just one win in last six is reason enough to lay them despite home advantage.
Villa were so poor not so long ago, even the home fans were tired of the excuses from Bruce but have seen the upturn in form that such an expensive squad should be achieving.
Brighton 1.6. (1.59) v BristolC 7.0. (7.0)
Brighton WIN@ 1.6.
No explanation required as Brighton really want this one and at value odds on all known form tables, and the fact that they have been the best in the division all season.
QPR 2.52 (2.52) v Forest 3.15 (3.6)
Forest WIN @ 3.15.
QPR on a run of six straight defeats and would have been in real trouble had this run started a few games earlier, many of us thought that the punishment for breaking FFP rules should have seen them relegated to the conference instead of promotion to the EPL a few years back, as Leicester should have been with the administration scam that ensured promotion to the EPL sixteen years ago.
Forest are recently out of embargo after three years for a lesser breach of the rules that also saw Leeds and Blackburn punished, all three clubs having paid a high price for not being able to reduce the wage bill. Blackburn may indeed suffer the biggest penalty and will sadly compound this sad situation of inconsistent punishment due to the corrupt nature of the game in recent years.
Warburton will have Forest ready for this as last week`s win over Reading has given us a great chance of survival against the odds in another season of poor ownership decisions and another three managers. Forest have now beaten six of the seven top sides with one draw despite all of this, and would be a poor show not to get something from this all important game today after putting themselves in with such a live chance.
Reading 1.84 (1.71) v Wigan 4.6 (6.0)
Reading WIN 1.84.
Reading really need three points at a real price here after the defeat last week, while Wigan are just poor and missing key players.
Good luck today fellas.
- StevieDay1983 and gogetta
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6 hours ago, CloughandTaylor said:
Profit of 4.09. Leeds pick was a damp squib as no show first half.
Typical of the bbc to claim that poor Leeds and Newcastle would be feeling it after the battle on Friday, wtf.
Tennis is far more physical than the less demanding sport of football, often get 3 hour matches that are often brutal before turning out again two days later.
The likes of Newcastle have huge squads due to throwing money at it as do many PL clubs, play in a virtually non contact sport and then claim fatigue
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1 hour ago, Kenton Schweppes said:
They don't let away fans in there, although when we tried to get in it was for a County game, do they let away fans in for Forest games?
Not a place i bother with myself, but those that do say many away fans in there without drawing attention (shirts covered as any wise fan that just wants a drink will do).
As i said the Navigation is a trouble free zone with great beers and many screens for the early kick offs.
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7 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:
I have a huge soft spot for your club. My mate Mitch has been a life-long supporter of you boys, my other friend Jonny made the documentary on your club's European exploits, and I just think you epitomise everything great about the history of the domestic game. I've also enjoyed a few trips up to the City Ground and have fantastic memories. One being where I got stuck in Hooters after a game because I needed a piss and it got surrounded by Cardiff hooligans (back when we had a load of twats following the club away just looking to cause trouble). I came out of the toilet as Hooters was getting bombarded by foreign objects with the place rammed full of Forest fans. I openly said "this is awkward, I'm a Cardiff fan!" and your lot helped get me out of there because I didn't have a Cardiff top on so if I came out I'd have been easy pickings from distance for the trouble makers with their throw shit and ask questions later approach. Made me ashamed to have those scum bags follow Cardiff away when the vast majority of our away support is superb and we issued widespread bans to those idiots that very season so not had many problems since. However, it has also meant that Forest have held a close spot to my heart. I would hate to see you go down and even though I'd be disappointed if we lost today I would take some solace knowing the loss has helped you lads in your efforts to stay up.
Hooters unfortunately is a magnet for twats on both sides, next time find the Navigation Inn on Meadow Lane turning left as you walk along the canal on London Road.
Twats will not go anywhere near a pub that is full of real ale drinkers, and would not be able to cope with a few pints of the local brews either.
Let me know if you are about in the future and there will be a decent beer waiting.
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On 15/04/2017, 12:25:46, CloughandTaylor said:
Everton v Burnley.
Quite simply this is a match up between a home side with one of the best host stats, versus a spirited team with the most awful visitor stats.
Everton -1.5 AH, BF Ex @2.54.
Sunderland v W.Ham.
Sunderland are so poor that instinct would normally tell me that a WHam goal would be enough to win the game and i was initially tempted to take the 2.7 on the ammers.
One stat that interests me though is the performance of both teams versus bottom third of the table opposition. Sunderland have a record at home of 1-0-3 (conceding 1x2 and 2x3 goals in the defeats) and have not met such type of opposition at home since early February.
WHam are 2-1-3 against this type away and only failing to score at Leicester, 4 at Swansea, 3 at Boro, 2 at Bnmouth, also scored once at Hull and Watford.
Sunderland are a team devoid of confidence and almost as short on ability right now and can still only hope to take a point from a WHam side with quite a few key players missing. Noble suspended, Antonio, Obiang, Ried, and Ogbonna have played 124 first team games between them this season, and yet i still cannot see anything more than a point for Sunderland.
Draw @4.4 BF Ex.
4.98 profit from Saturday.
Boro v Arsenal.
Boro are so poor recently that Arsenal can win and keep a clean sheet, this is a bet that i would rarely place on an away team but feel able to take a chance today.
Arsenal WIN TO NIL, @ 2.76 BF Ex.
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1 minute ago, StevieDay1983 said:
I think Cardiff to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.37 is great value. At least worth a draw no bet backing. I said to @CloughandTaylor that if they nicked a goal they could well keep us at bay because our finishing hasn't been great lately. So I can see the reasoning behind the bookies here. However, I think at home we are a really tough side to beat under Warnock now so at the very least Forest will need to be on the top of their game to take something from us today and due to that I would recommend backing us to take at least a draw today.
I have to fear for us today as Saturday was so disappointing with so much at stake, only difference today is that we will have space to play, something that was denied by a great performance by Blackburn at the weekend.
Forest will have to fight for everything today and will be a no bet for me, but if someone gave me a 50 quid stake and insisted it had to be placed on this game, then the odds on Cardiff would look to good to be true.
Wish you all the bad luck in the world today SD, but only today.
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18 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Derby has the potential to be a massive club but they are so poorly run from the top. The owner doesn't have a clue. They needed a Neil Warnock or Mick McCarthy this season. However, Paul Clement and then Steve McClaren... awful.
Agree with that SD, unfortunately as a fan of Direby`s most bitter rivals, i am sure they would prefer the owners they have to the clusterfook that Forest have had in recent years.
The guy promised a third star (3rd European Cup) :D, now we fight relegation while six previous managers are still on gardening leave, and are currently 3rd favourites to win the Nottinghamshire County Cup, Third favs ffs........we always finished runners up until he arrived.
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Everton v Burnley.
Quite simply this is a match up between a home side with one of the best host stats, versus a spirited team with the most awful visitor stats.
Everton -1.5 AH, BF Ex @2.54.
Sunderland v W.Ham.
Sunderland are so poor that instinct would normally tell me that a WHam goal would be enough to win the game and i was initially tempted to take the 2.7 on the ammers.
One stat that interests me though is the performance of both teams versus bottom third of the table opposition. Sunderland have a record at home of 1-0-3 (conceding 1x2 and 2x3 goals in the defeats) and have not met such type of opposition at home since early February.
WHam are 2-1-3 against this type away and only failing to score at Leicester, 4 at Swansea, 3 at Boro, 2 at Bnmouth, also scored once at Hull and Watford.
Sunderland are a team devoid of confidence and almost as short on ability right now and can still only hope to take a point from a WHam side with quite a few key players missing. Noble suspended, Antonio, Obiang, Ried, and Ogbonna have played 124 first team games between them this season, and yet i still cannot see anything more than a point for Sunderland.
Draw @4.4 BF Ex.
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On 14/04/2017, 09:03:50, CloughandTaylor said:
Wolves v Brighton. AWAY @ 2.42.
Very surprised at the odds of 2.42 BF Exchange for Brighton, (2.24 is computer price) against a very average home side with much less to play for.
Fancied Forest to win at Wolves last week at around 4 ish, Assombalonga`s shot hitting a defender on the goal line before Wolves went and scored on the break 20 seconds later was the pivotal factor in that game, has to be remembered that Forest are as far from Brighton in ability as they are in location. One of the main reasons for backing against Wolves last time was the two home defeats to Birmingham and Wigan in the last six games they hosted.
Forest v Blackburn. Home @ 2.22 BF Ex.
Huge game for both teams today as Forest can feel safe with 3 points while Blackburn winning will only leave part of the job done. This is not the hopeful bet of a fan, but the result of the upturn in fortune expected when Warburton became Forest manager. Was not expecting 3 points from the home game with high flying Huddersfield last week, but 3 points it was along with a resounding 2-0 success. The Terrier`s fans on twitter were happy not to have gone home with a 5/6-0 defeat and were surprised to have been comprehensively outplayed, fairly sure that those that commented will have noticed such a price on Forest today and i hope the fans will have the ground rocking again after what has been another disastrous seasonal performance by the owner of our club.
Maybe more later with team news and good look to fellow punters today, be careful though not to get involved in the false prices on offer as always at this time of the season, a must win is no guarantee of a result at a short price when a team has been average or poor of late.
Very disappointing result for Forest after a dismal showing yesterday drags us back into the relegation fight, fair play to Backburn playing eight behind the ball and finding a winner from a set piece. Tough trip to Cardiff now and the history with Warnock will ensure we have a tough ask.
Delighted with the Brighton result and the follow up from Leeds, Seagulls would be popular champions with the neutrals to say the least.
Thanks to Brighton, a small profit on the day.
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6 minutes ago, ElPrincipito007 said:
For a bit of beer
The president nowadays is his son btw
Yes indeed, probably smarter than his old man and seems a better run club since.
Really did show EUFA to be a limp organisation, those of us that witnessed the game were aware of what went on (apart from the useless English media.
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2 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:
Never bet against RSC Anderlecht, it's a lesson
Will be in Manchester next week
It is ok to bet against them these days as they are no longer able to buy the referee, Van Den Stock is no more, along with his ref.
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Wolves v Brighton. AWAY @ 2.42.
Very surprised at the odds of 2.42 BF Exchange for Brighton, (2.24 is computer price) against a very average home side with much less to play for.
Fancied Forest to win at Wolves last week at around 4 ish, Assombalonga`s shot hitting a defender on the goal line before Wolves went and scored on the break 20 seconds later was the pivotal factor in that game, has to be remembered that Forest are as far from Brighton in ability as they are in location. One of the main reasons for backing against Wolves last time was the two home defeats to Birmingham and Wigan in the last six games they hosted.
Forest v Blackburn. Home @ 2.22 BF Ex.
Huge game for both teams today as Forest can feel safe with 3 points while Blackburn winning will only leave part of the job done. This is not the hopeful bet of a fan, but the result of the upturn in fortune expected when Warburton became Forest manager. Was not expecting 3 points from the home game with high flying Huddersfield last week, but 3 points it was along with a resounding 2-0 success. The Terrier`s fans on twitter were happy not to have gone home with a 5/6-0 defeat and were surprised to have been comprehensively outplayed, fairly sure that those that commented will have noticed such a price on Forest today and i hope the fans will have the ground rocking again after what has been another disastrous seasonal performance by the owner of our club.
Maybe more later with team news and good look to fellow punters today, be careful though not to get involved in the false prices on offer as always at this time of the season, a must win is no guarantee of a result at a short price when a team has been average or poor of late.
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9 hours ago, sajtion said:
i hope you learned your lessons boys. when teams are down and struggling that's when they are most dangerous. i knew they would play their hearts out and they deserved the comeback and win
Well done on sticking with Wigan in the face of such stern resistance, at 0-2 it must have looked bleak at odds of just over evens, one of the reasons you fancied Wigan was as you said "fan support", they never even had that in the PL which is why they find themselves in this position to be fair.
The only lesson for the "boys" to learn here was that they were correct to oppose odds that were so artificially short and a "must lay" on the exchange.
Plenty of cash traded at 0-2 to back that up and will be plenty of similar games today.
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Preston v Bristol.
Preston for me, were on a run of four straight home wins before saturday and on the fringe of the play off places. A much improved Forest performance so as the computer odds say 1.8 against Bristol the huge 2.2 Betfair Ex will be 50% better than expected.
Wolves v Forest.
At first glance Wolves four wins on the spin would see them a tad short in the odds at 1.91, but a solid home fancy.
Creditable win v Cardiff on Saturday but as this a home game let us look at the home form over the last five games previous to Cardiff.
Rotherham 1-0, Birmingham 1-2, Wigan 0-1, Newcastle 0-1, Villa 1-0. Nothing inspiring there and would have been odds-on in the first three as they are tomorrow.
Forest form can only be looked at since Warburton arrived, since then Home 2-2 with Derby and a draw at Preston that could have been won at HT with better finishing. Given how impressed the Preston fans were on twitter regarding this Forest performance, then this would suggest even further improvement from the Derby game. Having heard commentry from Saturday i am going with two bets here.
BTTS @ 1.84.
Forest @ 4.5
Would also like to congratulate skyblue88 on a great day as many of us have been where you`re club is now.
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Man Utd just cannot be backed at the price, computer says 1.81, bookies know there will be plenty of takers at 1.57 so there we have it.
Leicester sadly look like they could rip hopeless sunderland to bits and will take the -1.5 @2.35 Betfair Ex.
Have lived in the city for 35 years and heard all the stories of the players celebrating in town for too long over the summer, so a defeat to Hull who were struggling to field a team on the first day of the season was the start of the downward trend. Ranieri may have been accused of tinkering, but there were too many players not worthy of a shirt for many months, Ranieri was too loyal to those players and that was a bigger factor in him losing his job in my view. I once many years ago watched a Leicester v Forest reserve game from alongside the dugout as a mate was a steward in that position with no other fans anywhere near. Shakespear told the young sub to warm up and then called him to the line before verbally tearing his attitude apart as he felt the guy was not listening to instructions. Not surprised to see him get maximum effort from this mob that showed Ranieri no respect or loyalty.
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Chievo -1.5 BF Asian H/cap. 3.05.
Everything points to Chievo being able to beat the h/cap here.
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Just two games for me today as the results will be as unpredictable as ever at this time of the season.
Preston v Forest. BTTS.
Preston are very consistent and strong at home, a record of 6-3-1 at home when playing bottom half opposition.
Preston on a run of four straight wins at home and seven since a defeat but concede on average one goal at home to bottom half opponents.
Forest stats are not worth looking up for this game as Mark Warburton was unveiled four days before a stirring first half and late fight back in the 2-2 draw against bitter rivals Derby.
With the ridiculous international break he has had time to work with the players and install his ethos for an attacking display while keeping a tight defence.
For this game and as Forest need something from it i think BTTS is great value at 1.9 BF Exchange.
Fleetwood v Swindon, Home win.
Plenty in the stats to suggest a Fleetwood win so nothing clever there, but at this stage of the season the computer price of 1.62 is correct as expected for two teams in this position, yet Fleetwood are available at a huge 1.85.
Have tried to find the injury situation for both teams without success before posting, would advise anyone else to do the same before KO as the price is so wrong.
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Nothing i can really add as my thoughts on these games have largely been mentioned above.
West Brom v Arsenal.
BTTS @1.81.
Good luck this weekend fella`s, will be difficult with the poor value from here to season end.
Bit late with this one but expect both West Ham and Leicester to score, BTTS @1.76.
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Nothing i can really add as my thoughts on these games have largely been mentioned above.
West Brom v Arsenal.
BTTS @1.81.
Good luck this weekend fella`s, will be difficult with the poor value from here to season end.
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@Tiffy.
Only thing guaranteed about Forest v D**by is that it will be as bitterly contested as ever, not a betting game as both in poor form.
Both will be looking for the "new manager bounce" factor, incredible that this is the 5th consecutive "derby" where both teams have a different manager than the previous encounter, says it all about how these clubs have been run the last few years sadly.
Pressure of a relegation fight versus pressure to grab a play-off spot, no bet loud and clear from me.
Championship Predictions > Oct 2nd - 4th
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Too early in the season for me, but small stake double to keep the interest.
Blackburn.
Sheff Wed.