stewartd14
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 305 Nottingham ELLE WEST @ 25/1 As mentioned earlier in the thread, this horse is still worth following and the drop in ratings to 55 makes her an even better bet today. She eventually gets better ground - the drop to 6f is a small worry but I'm hoping she has enough in hand to overcome the drop in trip. 1 pt ew @ 25/1 Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Not been much in the way of advised bets recently with the rain just causing a nuisance. A bit frustrating, as Bretherton came in well last time without my cash but never mind ! I have an updated list which will be on it's way shortly which should see a busy June. One for today: 8.15 Newcastle - DARK OCEAN Dark Ocean steps up in trip today, which I mentioned in my opening remarks that he would appreciate. The softer ground is a bit of a worry, but he won on G/S at Pontefract and I still definitely believe he is capable of winning off 72. Looks an e/w bet to nothing at the very least today. 1 pt e/w @ 13/2 Boylesports
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Re: The Progressives Very interesting thread egg - what about What About Carlo today in the Silver Bowl after his run last time?
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday May 18th 3.40 Bondesire recorded a speed figure of 97 last time at Beverley, but he was advantaged by the plum draw that day and will find things tougher today. At 6/5, he's far too short. Iffranesia ran a massive figure at Nottingham last time (91), making him look extremely well in on turf off a mark of 77. The figure was a big improvement on his AW ratings and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go in again off a 5 lb higher mark. Mayfield Girl has dropped to 77 now, 4 lbs below her last winning mark. She ran well at Nottingham two starts back, running a figure of 85 and suggesting she was returning to form. She was completely hampered by the draw at Thirsk next time out and that run can be ignored (although she still ran with credit, only beaten 3 lengths and 4th on her side behind Tumblewind who won yesterday from a much more favourable draw). She has drifted out to a massive 20/1 and her Nottingham run gives her a massive chance. Augusta Ada ran some nice figures in maiden's and ran well in a hot nursery behind J Wonder last season off a harsh mark of 87. She has now dropped down to a mark of 79 which looks fairer. The worry is that Ollie Pears doesn't have a great record with his horses first time out, and a watching brief may be advisable today. 0.5 pt e/w Mayfield Girl @ 20/1 Bet365
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary UPDATE [TABLE=width: 1305]
[TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Horse[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD]W/EW[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]Returns[/TD] [TD]P & L[/TD] [TD]LSP[/TD] [TD]Comments[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Bretherton[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [TD]7th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Ran with some credit in a tough York race, not pushed too hard. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30/04/2014[/TD] [TD]Dark Ocean[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]4.50[/TD] [TD]9th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Gave no sort of running, possibly bounced, keep on list[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Dark Ocean[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]9.00[/TD] [TD]2nd[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Ran a really nice race staying on late. Beaten by horse who loves Hamilton, but pulled 2l clear of 3rd. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]23/04/2014[/TD] [TD]Elle West[/TD] [TD]0.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]21.00[/TD] [TD]9th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Raced awkwardly, didn’t look at home on the firm ground, keep on list[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Elle West[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]41.00[/TD] [TD]5th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Ran with a lot of promise, prominent until fading on the soft ground. Keep on list[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Elle West[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]15.00[/TD] [TD]5th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]By the time of the race the ground turned heavy and again she didn’t get home. Another creditable run though and was very well backed - keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]09/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Maiden Approach[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]5th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Not knocked about on seasonal debut, will come on for run. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Muwaary[/TD] [TD]NO BET ADVISED[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4th[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Ran a good race in the French 1000 Guineas. Worth noting, but likely no further bets[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]24/04/2014[/TD] [TD]My Name is Rio[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]4.40[/TD] [TD]1st[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]Won well, monitor to see how much his mark rises.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]17/05/2014[/TD] [TD]My Name is Rio[/TD] [TD]NO BET ADVISED[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]8th[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Now rated 81, which looks too high. REMOVE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Neighbother[/TD] [TD]NO BET ADVISED[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]7th[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Another of Fahey's who has looked like he will come on for the run. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Primo Uomo[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]3rd[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Hit the front, and didn't get home. Not certain of his ability, but will see if we get a price next time out.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 163] -
Re: Flat Racing > Sunday May 18th Interesting card at Ripon. A bit of fun and an attempt at finding some winners ! 2.10 Kylach me if you Can brings the best form to the table of those that have run, but it's far from spectacular. Roosey did nothing on debut, and I wouldn't be surprised if this went to a newcomer. Any market support would be significant. NO BET 2.40 Richard Fahey's aptly named Flying Machine ran an excellent figure (89) on debut, which puts him above the level I'd expect to be required to win this. Anything that runs this kind of figure on debut normally goes on to break their maiden quickly after, and I fully expect Flying Machine to take this. He looks a lot better than the others who have run, and barring a very hot newcomer, 10/11 looks a very fair price. 2 pts win Flying Machine @ 11/10 Betfred 3.10 I wasn't going to touch this race, but I had Reet Petite down as a 5/2 shot, and I'm extremely surprised to see him go off 5/1. Michael Dods horses are running really well at the moment, and I didn't think Reet Petite ran a bad race on debut. Went on to disappoint at Beverley, but didn't look wholly at ease on the firmer ground so I'm willing to forgive that. His debut figure of 65 gives him a solid chance, and puts him ahead of Tagtale in my betting. He needs to find a couple of pounds to beat Stan Moore's Kidmeforever, but at the prices on offer, I know which one I'm siding with. 0.5 pt win Reet Petite @ 11/2 Hills 3.40 Bondesire recorded a speed figure of 97 last time at Beverley, but he was advantaged by the plum draw that day and will find things tougher today. At 6/5, he's far too short. Iffranesia ran a massive figure at Nottingham last time (91), making him look extremely well in on turf off a mark of 77. The figure was a big improvement on his AW ratings and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go in again off a 5 lb higher mark. Mayfield Girl has dropped to 77 now, 4 lbs below her last winning mark. She ran well at Nottingham two starts back, running a figure of 85 and suggesting she was returning to form. She was completely hampered by the draw at Thirsk next time out and that run can be ignored (although she still ran with credit, only beaten 3 lengths and 4th on her side behind Tumblewind who won yesterday from a much more favourable draw). She has drifted out to a massive 20/1 and her Nottingham run gives her a massive chance. Augusta Ada ran some nice figures in maiden's and ran well in a hot nursery behind J Wonder last season off a harsh mark of 87. She has now dropped down to a mark of 79 which looks fairer. The worry is that Ollie Pears doesn't have a great record with his horses first time out, and a watching brief may be advisable today. 0.5 pt win Iffranesia @ 4/1 Bet365 1 pt e/w Mayfield Girl @ 20/1 Bet365 4.40 I was surprised to see Richard Fahey's New Street start his season over a mile, given Fahey's opinion that he needed a step up in trip (which is backed up by his breeding). Therefore, it was no surprise to see him struggle to get competitive over a mile on firmer ground at Yarmouth. He gets the step up in trip today to 9 1/2f, and I fully expect him to improve for it. His 2 year old figures give him a chance off 74, and any improvement thanks to the step up in trip should see him win off this mark. 4/1 is reasonable 0.75 pt win New Street @ 4/1 Bet365 5.40 Makruma brings a good standard to this race, and I feel it might just be enough to win it. I don't think Art of War is any value at the price, and I feel Roger Varian's runner needs to improve around 6 lbs to match Makruma. I think we know everything there is to know about Makruma, but I think the standard she brings is probably enough. 0.75 pt win Makruma @ 4/1 Combining all 5 in 2 x e/w Lucky 31's (with Iffranesia & Mayfield Girl)
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Bretherton ran ok without really threatening. 7.00 Hamilton - DARK OCEAN Having bounced last time, I am still confident Dark Ocean can win off his mark of 72. Perfect conditions here, Graham Lee on board again, and some pace to run at. Currently 12.5 on Betfair which is just massive. 1 pt e/w @ 8/1 generally (BOG)
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Elle West a creditable 5th, not yet watched the replay. Today: 350 York BRETHERTON See reasoning below re. his run behind Shyron which looks particularly strong. Should handle the ground, well drawn. 0.5 pts ew @ 18/1 Bet365 Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Primo Uomo didnt look to get home in the ground yesterday. Will need to watch the replay. On to today, and Elle West runs again on better ground. 5.00 Doncaster ELLE WEST I thought Elle West ran well enough last time, just weakening late on in tough conditions over the mile. The drop back to 7f will suit, and to assist, the handicapper has dropped her 3lbs. I feel this is very fair, and fancy her to go very close today. 0.5 pt ew Elle West @ 14/1 Bet 365 Very frustrated I missed the 33s this morning! Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Comp ~ Sunday May 11th 2.25 Leopardstown PRIMO UOMO - WIN @ 11/4 Bet 365 I was initially sceptical about the strength of the opening 2 year old maiden at the Curragh back at the end of March. However, as more runners come out of the race, the more I believe it is as strong as the speed figures achieved by the runner suggests. The 97 ran by Beach Belle looks extremely strong, and would have been one of the top 20 debut speed figures ran by any horse last season. With Coto, Bwana and Danzing Zafeen all having come out and won, and the speed figures being so strong, I think the race is a hot maiden. Therefore, it is more than worth keeping an eye on the other runner’s from the race. Primo Uomo comes out today and has had a nice break since that day. I'm hopeful that he can do the buisness today.
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 2.25 Leopardstown 1 pt win PRIMO UOMO @ 11/4 Bet 365 Comes out of the strong maiden at The Curragh mentioned above, he has had a nice break since then and should be up to taking this today.
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary
Ran with some promise. Disappointing from a betting point of view but definitely remains on the list.As per the above, I am more than happy to back Maiden Approach tomorrow, and the price of 7/1 looks massive as she steps up to the mile. As such, I am recommending the biggest bet the thread has seen to date. 2 pts e/w Maiden Approach @ 7/1 Paddy Power -
Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Review 11/05/14 The list this week combines horses from recent weeks, and also some runners which I have identified from last season (and another addition from the opening day at The Curragh) FLYCATCHER Richard Fahey identified this horse in his stable tour as one of the best handicapped horses in his yard, and I’m more than happy to follow him this season. As a 2 year old, he ran ratings of 49-74-66-75 and he then began his 3 year old career off 69. He duly won on his seasonal debut, where I unfortunately missed him, but I believe he is more than capable of defying the 6lb rise he has received for that win. I still think he is capable of running into the 80's, and I'll follow him for one more run to see if he can put his recent Thirsk disappointment behind him. NEIGHBOTHER I thought Neighbother looked a decent horse when winning his maiden at Warwick, despite only running a speed figure of 67. He never quite fulfilled that promise, and his form seemed to tail off when he was upped in class in the summer. He looked to be coming back to form towards the end of the season, however, finishing 3rd behind Kenny the Captain (won again since). He then ran a really creditable 6th behind the likes of Aeolus (should have won the Free handicap) and Musical Comedy (won twice since). His best 4 speed ratings read 77-78-80-77, which suggests Neighbother could easily benefit from his opening rating of 71. SHYRON - SR: 95 I feel that our rating’s looked very accurate at Yarmouth, so I think the performance of Shyron and Bretherton in the 3 year old handicap are more than worth noting. Shyron, trained by George Margarson, came away in fine style to win his seasonal debut at Yarmouth on 21/04, running a very impressive speed rating of 95 – suggesting him to be around 19lbs well in that day. He looks to be a 7f horse, and this was backed up by his disappointing display at Yarmouth on 29/04/14 when he didn’t get home and finished 6/8. However, when he reverts back to 7f, the trip he is bred perfectly for, I have confidence he will prove to be well ahead of the handicapper off his revised mark of 81. BRETHERTON – SR: 100 Bretherton wasn’t a horse who had given me much hope or excitement before this run behind Shyron, but if the rating is to be believed, he is well worth following going forward. Previously a winner off 70 on the all weather, he ran the excellent figure of 100 on only his 2nd turf start (first was his debut), leading me to believe he is still unexposed on turf and probably leniently treated. He has been raised to a rating of 83 (from 80) for his 2nd to Shyron and I am confident that on turf, over 7f (looks to be his trip on breeding), he can get his head in front again. BEACH BELLE – SR: 97 I was initially sceptical about the strength of the opening 2 year old maiden at the Curragh back at the end of March. However, as more runners come out of the race, the more I believe it is as strong as the speed figures achieved by the runner suggests. The 97 ran by Beach Belle looks extremely strong, and would have been one of the top 20 debut speed figures ran by any horse last season. Therefore, Beach Belle looks a must to go onto the list. With Coto, Bwana and Danzing Zafeen all having come out and won, and the speed figures being so strong, I think the race is a hot maiden. Therefore, it is more than worth keeping an eye on the other runner’s from the race. As such, I am adding each of those which have not yet won a race to the list, as I fully expect them to make their mark in Maiden company. It is notable that a couple have run since without winning, but I think it’s entirely possible that they bounced after that opening race. Coto, for example, got beaten on his 2nd start before going on to win at on 28 April at 33/1 (120.0 on Betfair). PRIMO UOMO ALERTNESS INITIAL ALAINN MASTER PLANNER
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Re: Flat Racing > Saturday May 10th Looking at the sire stats, there are some interesting contenders on the bottomless ground at both Thirsk and Warwick tonight. 610 Rio Sands (Captain Rio) @ 410.0 640 Bosham (Shamardal) @ 23.0 655 Louis Vee (Captain Rio) @ 16.5 740 Royal Holiday (Captain Rio) @ 740 Rio Cobolo (Captain Rio) @ BSP 740 Red Paladin (Red Clubs) @ 16.0 740 Printmaker (Shamardal) @ BSP - NO BET 740 Real Tigress (Tiger Hill) @ 4.0 825 Lewellyn (Shamardal) @ 2.88 All odds Betfair, and all selections based on their sire's preference for softer ground (and a level of form research to ensure they aren't no hopers - ie. I haven't backed Printmaker). I've combined Rio Sands, Bosham, Louis Vee, and (Royal Holiday, Rio Cobolo, Red Paladin) in e/w doubles and trebles.
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Re: Scoop 6 Rolls over again, and we didn't even reach the Victoria Cup !! Unlucky danj - looked a good chance of the place pool until that leg ...
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Re: Scoop 6 Had a little bit of a shot at this - with so much in the pool, why not ! Not at all confident about the Haydock races though, so will probably be out in Leg 1. 150 - Big Easy 220 - Casual Smile, Momentus 240 - Cap O Rushes 245 - Point North, Oscars Journey 330 - Vibrato Valtat, Dubawi Island 350 - Brownsea Bring, Heavens Guest 16 lines.
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday May 10th 2.45 Nottingham - OSCARS JOURNEY I pondered over this race for quite some time last night for Scoop 6 purposes, and identified this Oscars Journey as one with a live chance if the rain came. As it happens, the rain has come, a number of his opponents have been withdrawn, and he is still 16/1 ! I thought he ran some really good races on the softer ground at the end of his 2 year old season, racking up a couple of victories at Windsor and Nottingham despite running really keen. He obviously had problems, and never quite found the same form as a 3 year old, although perhaps he just found things going a bit quick for him on the better ground. I feel today, things are right for him. He will have a stronger pace to run at, which should stop him pulling so hard and in addition the rain has come giving him his softer ground. John Jenkins horses have been running ok recently and although this looks to be the stable's second string, I'm not too worried about Nicky Mackay taking the ride. The price really does look massive. EW @ 16/1 Bet 365
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Re: BBOTD Friday 9th 6.50 Nottingham I wrote the following in my thread, and really fancy Richard Fahey's horse to make a mark tomorrow: Maiden Approach only had 3 runs as a 2 year old, and although she didn’t dazzle on the clock, she did run 53-66-65. I was personally very surprised that she was able to win over 5f considering she is bred to need at least a mile to perform at her best. This makes her rating’s of 66 & 65 look very strong, and I expect her to be able to improve at least 10 lbs once stepped up in trip as a 3 year old. If she can do that, she will make a mockery of her opening handicap mark of 68. She runs off 68 tomorrow, and is stepped up to a mile. To me, it looks like the perfect conditions. 1 pt win @ 7/1 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary As per the above, I am more than happy to back Maiden Approach tomorrow, and the price of 7/1 looks massive as she steps up to the mile. As such, I am recommending the biggest bet the thread has seen to date. 2 pts e/w Maiden Approach @ 7/1 Paddy Power
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Elle West didn't run a bad race, certainly stays in the notebook. One more addition before she runs tomorrow. The next posting will come on Saturday. MAIDEN APPROACH Maiden Approach only had 3 runs as a 2 year old, and although she didn’t dazzle on the clock, she did run 53-66-65. I was personally very surprised that she was able to win over 5f considering she is bred to need at least a mile to perform at her best. This makes her rating’s of 66 & 65 look very strong, and I expect her to be able to improve at least 10 lbs once stepped up in trip as a 3 year old. If she can do that, she will make a mockery of her opening handicap mark of 68. A very strong addition to the list.
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Re: Flat Racing > Monday May 5th 2 great calls Chris! Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Re: BBOTD > Monday May 5th 3.15 Beverley - GRASPED Nothing exciting today I'm afraid, but I think it's hard to see past Mrs Cecil's runner here. In a race that doesn't have too much depth, the unexposed Grasped comes in here off what looks a lenient mark of 74. I had her running a figure of 85 on her debut, so wasn't surprised to see her follow up on her hcap debut next time out and justify odds of 1/3. She was very workmanlike that day, and that has resulted in a rise of only 2lbs. I'd be surprised if she doesn't go on to be rated into the 80's, so I fully expect her to complete her task today en route to that. 1 pt win @ 13/8 BetVictor
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Re: 1000 & 2000 Guineas 2014
10/1 winner, 33/1 2nd and a 98/1 forecast. I'll take that !!1000 Guineas Preview In the fillies version of the classic, the market certainly suggests the race is going to be a very closely fought affair with most bookmakers going 6/1 the field. To find the value bets here, our first port of call is to identify the best 2 year old speed figures recorded by the filles of last year. [TABLE=width: 596] [TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Distance (f)[/TD] [TD]Horse[/TD] [TD]Speed Rating[/TD] [TD]Sire AWD (f)[/TD] [TD]Dam AWD (f)[/TD] [TD]Average[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Rizeena[/TD] [TD]112[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]7.20[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Rizeena[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]7.20[/TD] [TD]7.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Tapestry[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]9.20[/TD] [TD]10.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Miss France[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]9.30[/TD] [TD]8.60[/TD] [TD]8.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]27-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Lightning Thunder[/TD] [TD]111[/TD] [TD]7.00[/TD] [TD]12.90[/TD] [TD]9.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Wind Fire[/TD] [TD]110[/TD] [TD]8.70[/TD] [TD]10.60[/TD] [TD]9.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01-Sep-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Kiyoshi[/TD] [TD]108[/TD] [TD]9.20[/TD] [TD]10.00[/TD] [TD]9.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19-Jun-2013 [/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Sweet Emma Rose[/TD] [TD]107[/TD] [TD]8.50[/TD] [TD]9.30[/TD] [TD]8.9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Wonderfully[/TD] [TD]107[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]9.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18-Jul-2013 [/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Perhaps[/TD] [TD]106[/TD] [TD]11.20[/TD] [TD]9.00[/TD] [TD]10.1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Stamina Index To assess the stamina required to win this race, I have taken the last 10 winners of the race and considered the average winning distance of both the sire and the dam’s offspring. Historically, the lowest average to take the prize was 6.8f last year, although this was very much an exception to the rule (the next lowest being 7.8f). The average over the last 10 years, incidentally, is 8.8f, suggesting you need to stay the mile well to come out on top. Looking at that stat, it makes you worry whether Rizeena really takes the best chance into the race. It looks as if 1 mile might be her limit, and I don’t think she quite got home over the mile in her final run of last season. Likely Winner’s Taking the leading contender’s one by one: Tapestry looks more than capable of reversing the form with Rizeena over the mile given they were only separated by ¾ length at The Curragh, and Tapestry looks certain to improve for the step up in trip. However, I do feel that Tapestry will be even better over further, and the mile in the Guineas might just be a touch on the sharp side. Only one horse has won the race in the last 10 years with a stamina average of over 10f, and that was Blue Bunting back in 2011 who certainly took me by surprise last year. Miss France really took the eye when she beat Lightning Thunder at Newmarket and would be my main pick for this race. She hasn’t quite done it in France, but she seemed to love the firm ground when she came across for her one run in England and she travelled like a dream. She showed a bit of greenness in the closing stages to give Lightning Thunder a bump but won that a shade cosily and was probably value for a little bit more than her winning distance suggests. Her breeding is perfect for this, and she would have to be a strong fancy to give the French their first win in this since Special Duty back in 2010. Lightning Thunder has to also be considered if Miss France is chosen as the main bet. Although beaten a shade cosily by the Andre Fabre trained winner, she hung all the way across the track and looked extremely green. This is a horse who will improve even more than Miss France for the step up in trip (stamina avg of 9.95f) and if she manages to get first run she might be difficult to peg back. The big worry is that, like Tapestry, her stamina average is very high and would be one of the highest to take this race in recent years. The main appeal behind this runner is her price tag of 33/1 which looks massive next to the tag of 6/1 on Miss France. I have confidence that Olly Stevens can get this filly ready for the race, and if he can, she can give us a live run for our money at a very big price. Wind Fire put in a very good run at Royal Ascot back in June behind No Nay Never and Coach House. She ran best of the horses who were held up that day and it looked a very promising run. However, I’m always very dubious about large speed figures achieved at Ascot and the fact Wind Fire went on to struggle afterwards suggests the figure wasn’t wholly accurate of her ability. There is an argument, however, that she was feeling the effects of a long 2 year old season and she would have to be looked at again if she lined up at 66/1 on the day. As it stands, however, she looks to have a tricky task on her hands. Kiyoshi is another filly who looked a star last year. Having struggled on debut, she quickly picked up a nice Maiden win at Goodwood and followed that up with a win at Ascot, beating Joyeuse (result yesterday). She then ran a good third behind Rizeena and Tapestry and wasn’t beaten far in a muddling race. Like Tapestry, you fancy Kiyoshi to improve for the step up in trip more than Rizeena and she may be a bet to reverse the form. Getting beat by Vorda certainly wasn’t a bad run on her final race at Newmarket, but I just feel she lacks the X Factor to go and take the prize here. Sweet Emma Rose and Perhaps won’t be running in the Guineas. So that leaves us with Wonderfully for Aiden O Brien. This certainly isn’t his first string for the race, but I don’t think you can discount this horse. She started off her career with a decent performance on debut getting up in the final strides over 6f. She then never got into the race at Ascot, and looked a horse with ability but not the pace to compete over the 6f trip. She then stepped up to 7f, and couldn’t be caught as Joseph O Brien had her on the lead from wire to wire. She then went to the Curragh and was desperately unlucky behind Rizeena, Tapestry and Kiyoshi. She was beaten when hampered that day but would certainly have finished closer, and has preferential breeding to both Rizeena and Tapestry when it comes to winning the Guineas. Her need for a longer trip was then re-inforced when she stepped up to a mile at Newmarket on her final run. There was no real gallop on and Wonderfully was outpaced as they sprinted to the line. She did well to eventually stay on for 4th. While I do think this horse will be better over slightly further, they should go a decent pace in the Guineas which should suit unlike the crawl they went at Newmarket (suiting Rizeena and Chriselliam who are both bred more for speed than stamina). If she can find herself running on late, I am confident she should be there or thereabouts and the current price of 430.0 on Betfair is very generous if she goes for the race. Advice 2 PTS WIN MISS FRANCE @ 10/1 Paddy Power .5 PT E/W LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 33/1 Ladbrokes 0.25 PT E/W WONDERFULLY @ 50/1 Bet 365 0.25 PT WIN WONDERFULLY @ 430.0 Betfair -
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Stewart's Racing Diary
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 2.30 Doncaster - MAIDEN APPROACH Maiden Approach eventually gets better ground today, and steps up in trip to 10f. As mentioned in my initial write up about her, she was always going to improve for a trip and I feel that she'll improve even more for the step up to 10f. I think she would have got another win on the board over the mile, but she needed it first time out (although this race earnt a strong figure) and I don't think she really enjoyed the softer ground last time. Today, over this trip, on good ground, and with Ryan Moore on board, she looks really good. I'm slightly frustrated she has been moved out of handicap company, as I think she was extremely well placed to make a mockery of her handicap mark of 68 (I think she'll nudge into the 80's over this trip). That said though, if that is to be true, she should take this today and 3/1 is fair. Bigger bet. 3 pt win Maiden Approach @ 3/1 Betfred BOG