stewartd14
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Posts posted by stewartd14
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Re: Flat Racing > Thursday September 25th
Thatcherite worth more than his finishing position suggests too. Very promising. Good luck with this :oknot bad so far ......top 2 rated have performed as follows ........... little eli won 12/1 kirt belle unp brave echo 3rd 6/1 shift star unp rich again 5th 8/1 shillito unp master of world unp lawyer 3rd 12/1 der meister won 12/1 barwick unp it must be faith unp thatcherite 33/1 3rd considering there were some big 20+ hcaps ......looks very promising indeed from 12 horses .......2 winners at 12/1 and 3x 3rds at 12/1 33/1 ...and 6/1 -
Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th
Great call mate !Newbury 2:20 - Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes(Group 2) (1) 6f 8yds The in form Mark Johnston runs Jungle Cat here and the booking of William Buick is a positive worth noting. He has been very consistent this season and was placed in the Coventry Stakes, placed in the July Stakes, placed in the Richmond Stakes and was just collared in the Gimcrack. I see no reason why he won't be bang there again come the line given his consistency. I think the favourite will be very hard to beat, especially with Ryan Moore booked to ride but I see each-way value in Toocoolforschool who has shown blistering early speed in his races and with that in mind the drop back in trip ought to suit massively. He could string the field out here and could be hard to peg back. Toocoolforschool - 1 Point each-way @ 20/1 Bet Victor Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-mill-reef-stakes-betting-toocoolforschool-can-teach-the-bookies-a-lesson -
Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 20th AYR GOLD CUP After the events of yesterday, I think it's going to be key to be drawn against either rail, with all likelihood, the stand side (high) being favoured. With that in mind, my 4 darts incorporate 2 drawn high which I really like, along with a couple drawn low who will no doubt be town along by Hamza. SUPPLICANT - Supplicant has now dropped to a really workable mark of 98, and it's a mark I feel he can certainly win off. This is a horse who beat Hot Streak in a weak Group 2 at the end of last season. Since then, he hasn't managed to reproduce his best, and his runs in handicaps this year haven't exactly set the world alight. However, Fahey is still confident that this horse retains his ability, and he has a plum draw today in 22. Hopefully young George Challoner can direct this horse across to the rails, sit just off the pace, and take the prize. AN SAIGHIDUR - Another who is ideally drawn in 23, and will be prominent and up with the pace. I'm a big big fan of Billy Lee who takes the ride, and whilst I think he has a lot to do off a mark of 103, it's not impossible, and if he can grab the golden highway, I think it could potentially be a 4-5 lb advantage. At the price, I think he's worth a punt. MINALISA - One of my selections drawn low. Stall 1, Ruwaiyan, will want to be held up so I fancy Minalisa to grab the prime spot on the rails. She will likely be taken along by Hamza, but if the rail is as advantageous as it looked to be yesterday, I think Minalisa could go close if the low drawn horses can keep up with those drawn high. She runs here off a mark of 101, which I certainly think os reasonable. She was just finishing too late at Goodwood 2 starts back off 103, and she ran a speed rating of 104 that day. That was on the back of a speed rating of 108 at Newcastle, so I don't think there's a question of her being badly handicapped. Fran Berry takes the ride, and I think she'll fare well of the low drawn runners. HAMZA - My final selection is likely to attempt to make all up the far side rail, and if he grabs the spot on the rail, that'll be an advantage amongst the low drawn runners. Well enough handicapped, Smullen on board, and won't be far away of those drawn low. Again, as with Minalisa, the big question is whether those drawn low (even on the rails) can keep up with those drawn high. 2 pts e/w SUPPLICANT @ 20/1 1 pt e/w AN SAIGHIDUR @ 25/1 0.5 pt e/w MINALISA @ 25/1 0.25 pt e/w HAMZA @ 28/1 All Bet 365, 5 places
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Re: Nap of The Day - Saturday 13th September Doncaster 3.50 - ST LEGER PREVIEW Looking at the stamina indexes of the previous winners of this race, it very much looks like you need a horse with an average of between 10 and 11f. The only runners to have won with an SI over 11 has been when the going has turned soft (Conduit) or heavy (Scorpion). Encke last year managed to achieve the feat, but he had more speed on his sire side with Kingmambo. With that in mind, I am happy to discount: Alex My Boy (SI too high) Forever Now (SI too high) Hartnell (SI too low) Kings Fete (SI too low) Odeon (SI too low) Snow Sky (SI too low) Somewhat (SI too low) Windshear (SI too high). That leaves us with 5. Kingston Hill comes into this race as favourite with some strong form to his name including a 2nd in ther Derby behind Australia. However, his stamina average just creeps in at 10.1f, and there are also doubts over the ground with him having a preference for it a bit softer. At the price on offer, I'm happy enough to avoid. Romsdal is my idea of the winner here. Throughout his 3 y o career, he has looked a horse who would appreciate a trip, which is no surprise given his breeding (stamina avg 10.6f). He ran a shocker at Ascot which has to be forgiven, but beforehand he ran a staying on 2nd in the Chester Vase, and then a staying on 3rd in the Derby, looking as if he needed further. He gets the longer trip today, Will Buick chooses to ride, and the 15/2 on offer looks very fair. Marzocco is also worth a little punt at 50/1 I feel. As with Romsdal, he has the ideal stamina profile for the race, and this was obvious last time out when he found the 1m 4f on firmer ground at York far too sharp. There is a big question over whether he has the class, but he's an improving animal and the ease in ground and extension of trip are definitely to his advantage. Scotland is another who ticks the stamina box, but he was thrashed in the Chester Vase behind Romsdal and looks to have a lot to find. Min Alemarat also ticks the stamina box, but comes here having just won a maiden and has a lot to find. BETS ROMSDAL - WIN @ 8/1 Bet365
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Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 13th DONCASTER 2.40 - PORTLAND HCAP PREVIEW OUT DO showed his ability when weaving his way through to win at Ripon last time, and a 3lb rise in the weights looks unlikely to stop him. I imagine they'll all race down the centre here which will make his stall 10 look ideal. Tudhope takes the ride again, David O Meara knows how to train his handicappers, and with a clear run, I really fancy Out Do to take this. 11/1 is very fair. SEEKING MAGIC is a horse who is slightly better over the 5f in my opinion, and I felt he was well placed to win a 5f hcap after his close run 2nd at Epsom 3 starts back. However, he was then stepped back up to 6f, and didn't show the same level of form. He's back over 5f today though, isn't too badly draw in 5, and has Ryan Tate back on board (excellent record on the horse). As with everything in these sprints, will need some luck, but 20/1 is a fair gamble. BETS 1 pt e/w OUT DO @ 11/1 Bet 365 (5 places) 1 pt e/w SEEKING MAGIC @ 20/1 Bet 365 (5 places)
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Re: Flat Racing > Saturday September 13th Doncaster 3.50 - ST LEGER PREVIEW Looking at the stamina indexes of the previous winners of this race, it very much looks like you need a horse with an average of between 10 and 11f. The only runners to have won with an SI over 11 has been when the going has turned soft (Conduit) or heavy (Scorpion). Encke last year managed to achieve the feat, but he had more speed on his sire side with Kingmambo. With that in mind, I am happy to discount: Alex My Boy (SI too high) Forever Now (SI too high) Hartnell (SI too low) Kings Fete (SI too low) Odeon (SI too low) Snow Sky (SI too low) Somewhat (SI too low) Windshear (SI too high). That leaves us with 5. Kingston Hill comes into this race as favourite with some strong form to his name including a 2nd in ther Derby behind Australia. However, his stamina average just creeps in at 10.1f, and there are also doubts over the ground with him having a preference for it a bit softer. At the price on offer, I'm happy enough to avoid. Romsdal is my idea of the winner here. Throughout his 3 y o career, he has looked a horse who would appreciate a trip, which is no surprise given his breeding (stamina avg 10.6f). He ran a shocker at Ascot which has to be forgiven, but beforehand he ran a staying on 2nd in the Chester Vase, and then a staying on 3rd in the Derby, looking as if he needed further. He gets the longer trip today, Will Buick chooses to ride, and the 15/2 on offer looks very fair. Marzocco is also worth a little punt at 50/1 I feel. As with Romsdal, he has the ideal stamina profile for the race, and this was obvious last time out when he found the 1m 4f on firmer ground at York far too sharp. There is a big question over whether he has the class, but he's an improving animal and the ease in ground and extension of trip are definitely to his advantage. Scotland is another who ticks the stamina box, but he was thrashed in the Chester Vase behind Romsdal and looks to have a lot to find. Min Alemarat also ticks the stamina box, but comes here having just won a maiden and has a lot to find. BETS 2 pts e/w ROMSDAL @ 15/2 Bet 365 (4 places) 1 pt e/w MARZOCCO @ 50/1 Bet 365 (4 places)
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Re: Chester races Saturday 13th September Morning Barnes, I agree with Rio re. the 3.30, but personally I feel the 8/1 about Arthur Martinleake makes him the bet over Perardue despite the draw disadvantage. Ran a good figure when winning his maiden, and the mark of 79 looks very fair. Needs to break and get across from stall 8 which is an ask, but if he can get a possy, an e/w bet at 8/1 shouldnt be far off the mark. In the 4.10, I thought ZUGZWANG has looked a different horse since stepping up to 10f, and I don't think the 4lb rise to 79 will stop him today. Likes to sit prominent which is key, and the race doesn't look particularly strong. I'd be favouring a bet on Zugzwang at aroun 6/1, although Duke of Yorkshire would have to be considered at 4/1.
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Re: Nap Of The Day - Sunday August 17th 5.20 Pontefract - DISCLOSURE @ 10/1 Bet 365 Still relatively unexposed, and has shown suggestions of returning to the form that saw him alloted a mark of 76. Clearly isn't up to that, but I have him as a horse capable of running to a mark nearer 70, and the drop to 66 looks lenient. Very well drawn in 2, and should show better than his price of 10/1 suggests.
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Re: PuntersLounge Fantasy Football - £20 Entry - Pot Currently £900! In :ok
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Re: Nap of the Day - Saturday 2nd Aug 2014 2.55 Newmarket NEW PROVIDENCE @ 11/1 Bet 365 BOG I was really impressed with the way this horse won last time out, and she actually ran a speed rating of 91 that day. She returns today off a mark of 79 (Garbutt takes 5 lbs off in addition) and she looks extremely well handicapped and capable of taking this. Ideally drawn in stall 1 too. WIN
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Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 20th July
Bookie is Bet 3654.40 Redcar MAIDEN APPROACH @ 8/1 Again, not ideal conditions for this horse, but the fact she's back into handicap company is a massive positive. I still remain convinced, absolutely convinced, that this filly is better than her mark of 70. Although I still have an incline she's better over 10f (by New Approach), there's no denying she didn't quite get home last time. Back over the mile, on decent ground, and back in handicap company off her mark of 70, I'm going to be really disappointed if she doesn't win today. WIN (Sorry about the bold, it's not letting me change it!) -
Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 20th July 4.40 Redcar MAIDEN APPROACH @ 8/1 Again, not ideal conditions for this horse, but the fact she's back into handicap company is a massive positive. I still remain convinced, absolutely convinced, that this filly is better than her mark of 70. Although I still have an incline she's better over 10f (by New Approach), there's no denying she didn't quite get home last time. Back over the mile, on decent ground, and back in handicap company off her mark of 70, I'm going to be really disappointed if she doesn't win today. WIN (Sorry about the bold, it's not letting me change it!)
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Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 4.40 Redcar 2.5 PTS E/W MAIDEN APPROACH @ 8/1 Again, not ideal conditions for this horse, but the fact she's back into handicap company is a massive positive. I still remain convinced, absolutely convinced, that this filly is better than her mark of 70. Although I still have an incline she's better over 10f (by New Approach), there's no denying she didn't quite get home last time. Back over the mile, on decent ground, and back in handicap company off her mark of 70, I'm going to be really disappointed if she doesn't win today.
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 19th July
Tremendous BH!!3.15 Newbury: Al Basti Equiworld Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) (6f8yds) A consistent sprinter is Music Master who ended last year with a good second to Tropics at Ascot and then opened up 2014 with a win in a Conditions event at Warwick. He was then 6th to Rocky Ground and fourth to Slade Power in the Diamond Jubilee. He will find this easier than Ascot and has a leading chance. Es Que Love and Hallelujah are both lively outsiders who definitely have a decent race I their locker this season at some point and are worth keeping an eye on. Selections: Music Master 7/2 Paddy Power Es Que Love EW 14/1 BetVictor Preview: http://www.punterslounge.com/newbury-betting-the-class-of-music-master-can-take-the-hackwood-stakes -
Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Time for an update to the list: UPDATE 06/07/14 Anne's ValentinoThis horse is a nice, relatively un-exposed 4 year old for Malcolm Jefferson who will be worth following as the season progresses. She looks to really have trained on and improved from 3 to 4, and has racked up a couple of wins and a 2nd already this season. The first win at Musselburgh came as a surprise, but the speed figure suggested it was no fluke as she recorded a decent rating of 64. She was only raised a couple of lbs by the handicapper, so it was pleasing to then see her go in again, running a rating of 59. She continued her consistency, running a rating of 64, which makes her current mark of 57 still look generous. She disappointed at Catterick last time, but I feel the key to this horse is the ground as she didn't look at ease on the firmer surface that day. Back on an easier surface next time, I really fancy her to go in again off her current mark. Raise a Billion This 3 year old of Alan Berry certainly isn't going to be a world beater, but I do feel there is some scope to work his current mark. He ran a solid rating of 62 when 2nd at Redcar behind Tinsill, then duly followed up with a win at Hamilton, showing he was indeed well handicapped. Failed to beat Tinsill, and probably ran slightly below par, at Hamilton next time out when running 3rd (speed rating only 53), and then found things happening too fast at Redcar last time. You have to forgive that run to continue following this horse, but I don't believe it was the mark that beat her last time, and I think she can repeat that run of 62, which would make her mark of 52 look very nice. It's worth noting even the poorer 3rd at Hamilton achieved a rating of 53, suggesting 52 is definitely workable. More to follow ...
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Saturday July 5th
1 pt win, obviously. :ok3.40 Beverley The NAP of the day for me has to be BONDI BEACH BOY. I remember backing this horse at Beverley last year from an excellent draw in 2, where he made all and quickened on gamely. He then went on a run, racking up another win at the track and then a win at Thirsk. He struggled a bit off a mark of 82 (although it must be said his worst performances came with claimer Jordan Nason on board), and the fact his mark has dropped back down to 77 is a big positive. I think he's a horse that can win off at least 80, and with George Challoner on board, he's essentially racing off 74 today (and George Chaloner is, IMO, a much more competent rider than Nason). To add further positives, Bondi's record at Beverley reads: 1-1-1-1-3, so a liking for the track is evident. He has a plum draw in 2 (should get inside Sleepy Blue Ocean early) and I can certainly see him being prominent throughout and quickening away on the rails to win. 5 pts win BONDI BEACH BOY @ 11/4 -
Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Beverley 2.30 ELLE WEST Beginning to lose faith in this horse, but she's dropped to 52 now, and if you ignore her run last time over a trip too short, her form beforehand was reasonable on a softer surface. She obviously isn't blessed with a huge amount of speed, so the step back up to 7 1/2f is ideal. She did run a decent figure of 62 two starts back at Donny, and if she enjoys the combination of better going combined with the 7f trip, she may look too big at the price. Good to see Paul Quinn take over from Ann Hesketh too. 0.5 pt e/w @ 28/1 Stan James Nottingham 18.30 MAIDEN APPROACH Again, it frustrates me that Maiden Approach is running in Classified company as opposed to claiming company, but 10f on this going is her ideal conditions and I'm hopeful that she can perhaps run better than her OR suggests. She did run a 79 last time (this follows a 77 over the mile two starts back) and this puts her right there with a chance. As I say, she's very well placed to take advantage of her handicap mark, but the price on offer is slightly too big to pass up on, even in a non hcap race. 1 pt win @ 7/1 Bet365
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition ~ Tuesday July 1st
Wrong thread mate - have duplicated your post in the Saturday one :okHayd 3.30 Win Pallasator SP -
Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Saturday July 5th Strider's from the other thread: Hayd 3.30 Win Pallasator SP
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Re: Nap Of The Day Competition - Saturday July 5th 3.40 Beverley The NAP of the day for me has to be BONDI BEACH BOY. I remember backing this horse at Beverley last year from an excellent draw in 2, where he made all and quickened on gamely. He then went on a run, racking up another win at the track and then a win at Thirsk. He struggled a bit off a mark of 82 (although it must be said his worst performances came with claimer Jordan Nason on board), and the fact his mark has dropped back down to 77 is a big positive. I think he's a horse that can win off at least 80, and with George Challoner on board, he's essentially racing off 74 today (and George Chaloner is, IMO, a much more competent rider than Nason). To add further positives, Bondi's record at Beverley reads: 1-1-1-1-3, so a liking for the track is evident. He has a plum draw in 2 (should get inside Sleepy Blue Ocean early) and I can certainly see him being prominent throughout and quickening away on the rails to win. 5 pts win BONDI BEACH BOY @ 11/4
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 5th July 5.00 Sandown These three year old races over longer trips really appeal to me, and it's evident today that a number aren't bred to stay the trip. Prince of Stars did well to win his maiden over the trip last time out, but preference goes to Clive Cox's charge RAISE YOUR GAZE. Bred to want around 10f, it wasn't a surprise to see him put his best run to date in last time at this track. He took a while to settle, didn't get the run of the race, and still ran on well to finish 3rd. He evidently relished the step up in trip, and he ran a figure of 82 that day despite the hard luck stories. Therefore, it's not unreasonable to fancy him off his mark of 77 today. Ryan Tate takes another 3 lbs off, and I feel he's the value bet over the favourite who looks short on the back of his maiden win. 2 pts win RAISE YOUR GAZE @ 11/2 LADBROKES 3.40 Beverley The NAP of the day for me has to be BONDI BEACH BOY. I remember backing this horse at Beverley last year from an excellent draw in 2, where he made all and quickened on gamely. He then went on a run, racking up another win at the track and then a win at Thirsk. He struggled a bit off a mark of 82 (although it must be said his worst performances came with claimer Jordan Nason on board), and the fact his mark has dropped back down to 77 is a big positive. I think he's a horse that can win off at least 80, and with George Challoner on board, he's essentially racing off 74 today (and George Chaloner is, IMO, a much more competent rider than Nason). To add further positives, Bondi's record at Beverley reads: 1-1-1-1-3, so a liking for the track is evident. He has a plum draw in 2 (should get inside Sleepy Blue Ocean early) and I can certainly see him being prominent throughout and quickening away on the rails to win. 5 pts win BONDI BEACH BOY @ 11/4 4.50 Beverley Another race which sees 3 year old's stepping up in trip and Richard Fahey's Miss Lucy Jane heads the market after a good win at Beverley last time. It's hard to argue with that success (she ran a figure of 72), but I feel there are others better in who haven't shown the handicapper their hand over this longer trip. The first of those is COIN BROKER for David O Meara. She hasn't raced over further than a mile yet, and was always outpaced at Thirsk last time our, running with immense credit to finish 3rd (running a figure of 64). Being by Montjeu, the step up in trip is almost certain to bring improvement, and if she does improve, she'll look very well handicapped off 64. Decent 3 lb claimer takes some extra weight off, and I make her much better value at 4/1 than the favourite at around 9/4. The second selection for me here is one at a longer price, but for a trainer who knows how to win these types of races. OFELIA goes for Brian Ellison, and is currently around 16/1. Like Coin Broker, she hasn't been tried at distances longer than a mile and her form figures are hardly inspiring. This has resulted in a lowly mark of 46. However, being by Teofilo, I think she needs at least 10f to show her best, so it is perhaps unfair to judge her purely on her efforts over inadequate trips. It's really interesting that Raul Da Silva picks up the ride here, and if she improves for the trip, she may be able to put in some sort of a run from a mark of 46. 1 pt E/W COIN BROKER @ 9/2 Hills 0.5 pt E/W OFELIA @ 20/1 Skybet 2.55 Haydock ASTONISHING isn't many people's idea of the likely winner here, but I think she's been under-estimated at 16/1. Granted, she really ran poorly in Group 3 company last time, but if you look back at her previous two runs, her listed race win at Newmarket towards the end of last season looked really good on paper (speed fig 110), and her seasonal return earnt her a figure of 109 in Group 3 company behind Cubanita. On figures alone, the only horse in the field to have run higher was Talent at Epsom last year. Now, obviously this doesn't mean they aren't capable of beating Astonishing as the figures aren't as reliable over longer trips, but it does show it isn't worth writing the Stoute horse off. There are horses in here more than capable of improving, but at 16/1, I think Astonishing is worth some sort of bet. 0.5 PT E/W ASTONISHING @ 16/1 Bet365
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Re: Durban July 2014 Good luck mate - will follow with interest !
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 5th July 1.30 Sandown Captain Bob has to be considered after he won well here last time staying on, and Royal Seal is certainly worthy of interest stepping back up to 7f (much more his trip) after making his handicap debut over 5f. However, Captain Bob's rise in the weights to 89 doesn't exactly look lenient, and I don't believe that Royal Seal's mark of 85 is that lenient either (best speed figure was 77 before his hcap debut). Therefore with that in mind, the selection falls to Hugo Palmer's Extremity. I liked the look of this horse last year and he quickly made his mark of 78 look lenient. I think he needed his seasonal debut at Newbury, but then recorded a figure of 90 at Leicester and followed that up with a figure of 93 at Kempton behind Idea. Those last two runs make a mark of 84 look very workable, and I feel he is well placed to take advantage today. 1 pt win EXTREMITY @ 4/1 2.05 Sandown The draw is certain to play a big part here, and it's key to be drawn low. However, I have to oppose Steps from stall 1 given his tendency to come late. Tagula Night suffered interference yesterday, and I fear the same feat may meet the Varian horse. With that in mind, I'm happy to look elsewhere at the lower drawn horses and three catch my eye. AHTOUG (drawn 6) ran some excellent figures across in Dubai and just got outpaced and probably outclassed at Ascot back in June. At his best, I have him running to a figure round 111, which puts him right in there (Steps ran 110 at Ascot and that looks generous IMO). Kingsgate Native (drawn 8) isn't exactly lowly drawn, but will be able to get a position in behind runners and try and thread his way through. The horse has really impressed me in his two runs this season, including running a good 3rd on ground that was too soft for him last time out. There has been some rain at Sandown, and that'll probably just be enough to see Kingsgate find one or two too good. The final horse to appeal to me is Olly Stevens' EXTORTIONIST. On figures, he doesn't quite match up to Ahtoug, but his 109 at Newmarket when running on at the death, and 106 at The Curragh where he showed good crusing speed make his price of 11/1 look too big. Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking, and he is one of the least exposed in the field. He should get a nice pace to run at, is superbly drawn in 4, and just has to be backed at 11/1. 1 pt e/w EXTORTIONIST @ 11/1 0.5 pt win AHTOUG @ 11/2
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday June 15th
2.30 Doncaster - MAIDEN APPROACHMaiden Approach eventually gets better ground today, and steps up in trip to 10f. As mentioned in my initial write up about her, she was always going to improve for a trip and I feel that she'll improve even more for the step up to 10f. I think she would have got another win on the board over the mile, but she needed it first time out (although this race earnt a strong figure) and I don't think she really enjoyed the softer ground last time. Today, over this trip, on good ground, and with Ryan Moore on board, she looks really good. I'm slightly frustrated she has been moved out of handicap company, as I think she was extremely well placed to make a mockery of her handicap mark of 68 (I think she'll nudge into the 80's over this trip). That said though, if that is to be true, she should take this today and 3/1 is fair. Bigger bet.win Maiden Approach @ 3/1BetfredBOG
flat racing tues 30th sept
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: flat racing tues 30th sept
Good call :clap