yogg

Back Stefanos Tsitsipas (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Did not really understand why Thiem "forced" himself to the final last week in Lyon, rather than saving his energy for the next (two?) week(s), but at least he got his reward and won the tournament. It was no surprise he went through the first round quite easily but will face a tricky opponent in the next turn. The Greek guy already caused him plenty of problems in their previous meetings, at these odds I definitely have to give it a try.
Back Benoit Paire (AH +2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori at 1.65 with Pinnacle
Once again staying on the safe side and playing set handicap. Kei did not really impress me in the first round, in all honesty, I expected a stronger performance from him. He might have played good tennis in Rome, but at the same time is used to make matches difficult for himself. Stats are also on my side, Paire should be well able to take at least (!) one set in front of the home crowd.
Back Federico Delbonis to beat Pablo Carreno Busta at 3.00 with Bet365
The set handicap seems to be obvious for me here, but now I will risk an play the money line. I am not at all impressed with the Spaniard recently. Shaky performance in Rome, not to mention Madrid and Estoril. Ok, Delbonis is not in a hell of form either, but he holds a decent H2H record, so let's see.
Back Martin Klizan to beat Gael Monfils at 2.45 with Marathonbet
Even if probably his main focus from the beginning of the season was to get in good shape for these weeks, I am not really sure about Monfils. Not because he dropped a set in the first round against an unknown player on the big stages, but the French fun-maker is no longer the player he used to be. This match can definitely go into 5 sets, maybe worth to risk a small amount on that, but I definitely think the Slovak has a good chance here.

Johanna Larsson to beat (-1.5 sets) Bettanie Mattek-Sands at 2.10 with bet365
I think this bet should have a decent chance of coming in today. Bettanie has played a few three set matches on clay, in fact 4 in a row and lost 3 of them but I don't think she will have as mutch chance to take a set of Johanna as she had in her 3 recent losses in Rome, Madrid and Rabat. She's also beaten Caroline Dolehide on the Madrid clay in qualies. This might be a risky bet but I think Johanna does have a quite decent chance of taking this in two. They've met twice and Johanna lost the first on hardcourt in 3 in Copenhagen and not surprisingly on Johannas favourite surface she won the other 7-5 6-2 on clay in Gstaad.

and a couple of correct score punts:
Seppi A. - Gasquet R. 2 - 3 @ 6.00 with Unibet
Jaziri M. - Youzhny M. 3 - 1 @ 3.95 also with Unibet

 

Bencic B. vs Chiesa D.
ten weeks without match play will undo Bencic I think against a fully up to speed Chiesa whose won three matches this past week.
Chiesa @ 2.10 with Bet365

GGL + Paire won, Hsieh lost, not too bad. Adding a small double for tomorrow.
Johanna Larsson (vs. Mattek) + Shuai Zhang (vs. Kucova) at 1.79 with Marathonbet
Both are at least a class above on clay and I really am not worried about the small issues in their form books. Larsson has had enough time to recover from the finals given the Tuesday start and Zhang should be much more focused here than she was last week. Mattek is yet to do anything half-decent this season (and the conditions shouldn't help her at all) and Kucova has been playing on the lower levels for a while now, so I don't fancy their chances at all.

Bencic B. vs Chiesa D.
ten weeks without match play will undo Bencic I think against a fully up to speed Chiesa whose won three matches this past week.
Chiesa @ 2.10 with Bet365

a double from me today.
two players with momentum vs two without any.
Giraldo to beat Baghdatis and Tiafoe to beat Querrey
Double @ 2.71 with Pinnacle.
Good luck all 

Cameron Norrie vs Gojowczyk
For anyone who has lined up compulsary "Must watch" matches at the French Open later today and does not include this, really needs to have their heads examined. True Gojowczyk is in a river of form but Norrie intrestingly enough is on a fairy tale run. For all of us who know this story so well, we know where it all begun not too long ago back in Spain during that memorable epic Davis Cup tie between Great Britain and Spain. Norrie says that his first time on clay was in the juniors, then he played a little on the futures circuit in the UK like Bournmouth and Newcastle.....well, before pulverizing Bautista from 2 sets down. To tell you the truth looking at the form of Gojowczyk, I cannot see how he could lose to Norrie except the hard-to-diagnose factors prevail.
Norrie played three excellent matches in Lyon punishing the big man Isner in the process before losing tamely to Simon For some strange reason, I feel the match with Simon was not a true depiction of the form relating to the three matches prior. It was as if Norrie realised his level was happy with it and took a quick dive to conserve energy. Gojowczyk went on to try to win the final and lost to Fucsovics after wasting some of his energy levels. I do not believe he could resume the form from where he left off and overhaul a Norrie full of stamina and zest. I also think playing a leftie will have its own additional adverse effect on Gojowczyk and see Norrie coming through victorious in the end. The journalists ans tennis paparazis might as well start thinking up their headlines for Tuesdays papers. Verdict: Norrie to keep the fairy tale going with a big win.

Before the draw, I was thinking about opposing Nadal in some shape or form, but he's been handed the best possible draw by the looks of things, with both Thiem and Zverev placed in the same quarter. With that in mind, it seems that only health issues could possibly stop him, so I'm not going to dive into the outright market. In fact, I'm struggling to see where the value should lie in the pre-tournament markets, everything looks messy to me. I have been able to find plenty of match bets that I like though.
Venus Williams (vs. Wang) + Suarez-Navarro (vs. Konjuh) at 1.80 with Bet365
Konjuh hasn't played since Brisbane, she might be here just for the money honestly, while Williams is better than Wang on clay. Much better, in fact. Venus doesn't have any form whatsoever on paper, but that is because she was unlucky to run to the red-hot Kontaveit in two recent tournaments. She didn't play too poorly and should have more than enough to beat Wang.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Stanislas Wawrinka at 2.53 with Marathonbet
Wawrinka managed to beat Donaldson in Geneva before being crushed by Fucsovics, but the bigger issue is that he doesn't seem to have the right shape for battling in a long match. GGL is a decent enough player to get stuck in - and, unless Wawrinka somehow wins quickly, the Spaniard should eventually out-maneuver him.
Benoit Paire to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 1.50 with Bet365
Benoit Paire was struggling in the first part of the season, but he has been able to find his mojo just in time for the French Open and he isn't going to let his guard down in this form imo. Carballes Baena is a good grinder that's great for small 250s and Challengers, but he doesn't have any big weapons in his arsenal and Paire should have enough time to adjust if he starts poorly given the longer format of the game.
Damir Dzumhur to beat Denis Kudla at 1.57 with Bet365
Dzumhur isn't being given much credit yet again, but I fully believe that he's a level above Kudla on clay. He also tends to raise his game for these bigger occasions, so I fancy him to recover from the bad loss against Rafa and start with a good win here. Kudla hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy in the qualifying (in terms of clay-court qualities).
Martin Klizan (vs. Djere) + Petra Martic (vs. Wang) at 1.99 with Unibet
Klizan was fooling around quite a lot in the qualifiers, but he always raised his game in the end and that should be enough for Djere, who doesn't have anything to build on this year. I had decent hopes for him before the clay court swing, but he's just missing for some reason. Meanwhile, Martic looks like one of those safer bankers to me, Wang has nothing to offer on clay - or on the main level, for that matter.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich to beat Denisa Allertova at 1.64 with Marathonbet
Allertova is one of the many WTA players with an ON/OFF switch - and, unfortunately, it's been in the OFF mode since the Australian Open. Her bad form seems to have something to do with her off-court life, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her being satisfied with just the first round paycheck here. Sasnovich should have bigger ambitions.
Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Rebecca Peterson at 1.96 with Marathonbet
Hsieh has burnt me plenty of times, but I still think that she should be closer to 1.70 or so here given her very stellar form all year long. The loss against Buzarnescu was pretty crushing, but Hsieh has a bit of a reputation for not being up for the task all the time, especially before bigger events, so it might've been the case of her just not wanting to be in Strasbourg. 

Yep, good luck everyone! 

Klizan..what can be said about him..his performance in the qualies was an utter joke..he saved mps yesterday to progress..3 setters in 3 days is bound to take a toll on him.Agree with most of Czechs picks but Klizan i'm not gonna be touching. Having said that he'll probably cruise home.
Best of luck everyone for this years french open

Kvitova probably has had a good recovery time and has done the smart thing. I think she can really be a live danger to the field. Agreed. Thiem is still frivolous and care free. staying out there in Lyon playing two three setters back to back was simply silly. Definately going with Vesely against Lajovic. (strong pick in my opinion). Gregoire Barrere ( home wildcard) should be able to take care of Albot. My last pick of the first round is a young player I love so much on clay and is also a home wildcard. Fiona Ferro. She currently has a horrible record and is playing against an opponent with an even worse record Witthoeft. Hard to see Witthoeft try to pull any weight here with the additional handicap of playing against the home crowd. Finally, I also think Italian joker Fognini looks. vulnerable against Andujar as well as Kasatkina looking dodgy against Kanepi. The latter leads the h2h 2-1 winning both on hard courts and convincingly so. Kanepi's game is bred for clay and I dont not see why she cannot repeat the feat with those heavy shots from her racket. She is in very good clay form too. 

Somewhat unrelated notes:
- I wouldn't want to touch Nadal at the current odds. The draw is soft, but I was shocked to see how much decline he's gone through since Monte Carlo. I don't know what's behind that and he isn't going to admit anything obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull out unexpectedly like he did in what...2016 I believe.
- Kvitova might look appealing to some given her good 2018 form, but there are two things to note her. First, the clay in Paris tends to be more physically demanding than other surfaces. Second, the guy that attacked her some time ago has just been caught according to the media, not exactly the best possible timing.
- I'd really love to see Halep win this time around, but I'm afraid that the Aussie Open defeat has had lasting consequences on her confidence. Not sure how she's going to handle another Grand Slam, especially given that she hasn't really amazed in the meantime.
- Djokovic could go reasonably far if his fitness is alright. His game was almost back in Rome, he stopped doing silly things and the good scoreline against Nadal should be a big confidence booster. And yeah, the super-soft first round isn't going to hurt either.
- I have no idea why Thiem wanted to stay in Lyon for the whole week. Can't help him imo.
- First round matches that should be entertaining - Kyrgios/Tomic, Petkovic/Mladenovic, Basilashvili/Simon, Siegemund/Vandeweghe, Duan/Garcia, Lepchenko/Mertens.

Oh man, Norrie had set point on his serve in the 2nd set tie break and loses the match three points later.

He found it in april when he beat Roberto Bautista Agut in a davis cup live rubber in Spain. Before that I had not seen anything good from him on clay but he's got potential.

Simon vs Norrie - ATP Lyon
I don't know where Norrie has found this clay form from but I'm going to roll with it.
he has a great serve as opposed to Simon's lately which I hope will pull him thru'.
this is more of a hunch bet for me, I'm sure we all have them. 
Norrie to win @ 2.15 with Marathonbet
Norrie to win 2-1 @ 4.90 with Unibet

http://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/18401434/tennis-why-12-year-old-cori-gauff-thinks-greatest-all
 

Simon vs Norrie - ATP Lyon
I don't know where Norrie has found this clay form from but I'm going to roll with it.
he has a great serve as opposed to Simon's lately which I hope will pull him thru'.
this is more of a hunch bet for me, I'm sure we all have them. 
Norrie to win @ 2.15 with Marathonbet
Norrie to win 2-1 @ 4.90 with Unibet

4 more bets from me for today
Andrea Arnaboldi to beat Mitchell Krueger at 1.80 with bet365
Best bet from chellenger Mestres today I think. The american is nothing on a claycourt while Andrea has enough momentum and talent for clay to see this through.
Steve Johnson to beat Marton Fucsovics at 1.80 with bet365
Odds could change here, Steve might drift to 1.90 or more or less than 1.80 so I'm taking this before anything happens because I think 1.80 is good enough on Steve. I don't think Steve will take this easily but he is better on clay than Marton so he should win.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.50 with bet365
Pavs for me all the way here on this surface where she apparently also is on a roll right now. Ashleigh won their last meeting in straight sets in Zhuhai elite trophy last season but I don't think she's better than Pavs on clay but if it had been grass or hard I would have gone for Ashleigh.
Peter Gojowczyk/Fabio Fognini over 21.5 games at 1.72 with bet365
Not the best of odds but I don't care, sticking with bet365 today. Peter and Fabio going head to head, interesting and most likely a hard fought encounter with 3 sets or at least one tie break because both are playing some excellent stuff right now so over 21.5 games seems reasonable.

Ok I'm not giving up yet, 3 bets from me today
Caroline Dolehide to beat (-1.5 sets) Maria Irina Bara at 2.20 with bet365
Caroline is up 2-0 against Irina and is yet to lose a set to her. Caroline is about 3 years younger and seeing that she beat Irina in straight sets when she was 16-17 makes me even more confident in this bet. Let's see if Caroline can do it again outside Florida.
2018 $60,000 Indian Harbour Beach, FL USA Clay Final DOLEHIDE 4-6 5-7
2016 $25,000 Wesley Chapel, FL USA Clay Round 2 (Qualifying) DOLEHIDE 5-7 5-7
Harmony Tan to beat Georgina Garcia-Perez at 2.25 with bet365
Going with the french 20 year old woman here seems like the best option. Georgina is nothing special.
Alexandra Dulgheru to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 1.80 with bet365
Dulgheru has played well enough to pass this test as well. I think she should be a slightly bigger favourite. She's also beaten Tamara once last season in 3 sets on hard.

Ye really great write ups, not a single correct bet. Crap is what it is. I've had 2 correct bets this week. Not exactly a great week for me.

Anett Kontaveit to win 4th quarter at 9.00 with bet365
Max stake on this one. Anett is on the rise and has enough quality to win this on her own without any help from players droping out. It doesn't matter if she faces Petra Kvitova, Caro Woz or Dasha Kasatkina when she is on a roll because she's good enough to beat them all.

Men's: https://prismic-io.s3.amazonaws.com/fft-rg-commun-news%2F3d413fd2-bd29-4604-a6ee-4fbdad3f01a8_men_s_singles_20180524.pdf
Women's: https://prismic-io.s3.amazonaws.com/fft-rg-commun-news%2F8777ce2b-dcf3-47bb-86ad-6092e8f17da9_women_s_singles_20180524.pdf

Bertens vs Barthel - WTA Nurnberg
early start for these tomorrow and I'm pretty sure an early bath too for an out of form Barthel against a very much in form Bertens.
Bertens to win 2-0 @ 1.71 with 10Bet
the odds are dropping on this. 
good luck all 

I do not think this should have anything to do with a week before a slam. In my opinion Fognini has nothing to aim for within the context of a slam. Tennis for him now should just be about trying to earn a living without ambitions. Even without the slam and tanking factor, this really is a losable match for Fognini against a young player in potent form. Rubin should win a set at minimum asking!