[UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th Wow what a weak line up of Kuban Krasnodar I just saw. I fancy Swansea to beat them tonight, Bony was solid in counter play in his time in Vitesse and Swansea can handle the pressure of Kuban. Bony is the ideal man to score 1 or 2 goals on the counter, Guzman can set him up really quickly. Krasnodar have posted an Attacking mid as striker who has made a stunning 1 goal in 15 matches in the Russian league. Their topscorers are not even starting. Yes Michu is out for Swansea but I still think their team can take this Line up of Krasnodar. It's do or die and judging from the line up they find the Euroleague important enough. Taking Swansea DNB 1,85 Tipico

[Correct Score/Draw System]

Re: Correct Score/Draw System Sounds interesting I will follow it. One word of advice is that Liege is not interested in the Euroleague and fields a B or C team as they focus on domestic success. Salzburg takes it more serious so I would actually bet on them, they are better than a B or C Liege. Lyon also plays with a B or C team as their domestic league is more important. Kuban vs Swansea is a decent choice but this could go eitherway and kuban is not performing great in the Russian league. I would not test this on the Euroleague really and stay far away from tripples and so fort tonight. I expect Salzburg to win, Rijeka to suprise with at least a draw and I could not call Kuban , Swansea but my feeling is draw. Goodluck.

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th

4pts Rubin Kazan (-1.25AH) to beat Wigan 2.02 Bet365 Wigan have been gutsy and game in this competition so far but this would be a tough assignment for some of the better sides in Europe let alone one without any experience like them. That can work two ways. With nothing to lose they can play with a bit of freedom or they can be a bit timid and the task becomes the impossible one it looks. We have to choose one of the two scenarios and for me this could be a step too far for the Latics. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rubin-kazan-vs-wigan-betting-russian-s-can-be-too-strong-for-wigan-at-home

Topscorer and striker Salomon Rondon is injured for Kazan so I would be very careful with AH. Wigan are not the most scoring side and will play solidly as they did away in Waregem ( 0-0 ) Kazan will have more trouble with goalscoring so I recommend: Under 2.5 Goals -- 1.85 Labrokes.

[UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th]

Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th PSV - Dinamo Zagreb. I am quite suprised by the 8,00 odd @ Paddypower and some other bookies for a Dinamo Zagreb away win at PSV. PSV is in an absolute terrible form at home and haven't won a game in the last 5 games. They were beat by Roda JC twice at home and away and Roda is a really low level club in the Netherlands. Groningen beat them and they could not defeat Zwolle at home who are even a promoted side and at best will rank somewhere 8-12 in the league. Ofcourse one can reason it is PSV after all and they should be able to defeat Zagreb but what I have seen in the last games of PSV and especially the cup match they lost at home to Roda is really dreadful. In the first home game ( Zagreb PSV 0-0 ) Zagreb deserved it more than PSV to win so I am absolutely suprised by this odd. Also PSV is not taking this game as an important game and giving one of their best defenders Karim Rekik ( on loan from man city ) rest and replace him by a youth defender because in the media they state PSV gives priority to the NAC away game ( Small derby always tough for PSV ). That is not so strange considering that if PSV want to play for the Championship in the Eredivisie and a CL ticket they have to forget about the Euroleague now because they cannot manage both. Then their best goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet is out, Park ( from Man United ) a key player is also out and another key midfielder Stijn Schaars is doubtful. There talented winger Bakkali is not playing either. PSV crowd is notorious for not backing their team during the Euroleague so don't expect any sort of impressing/threatening atmosphere. Dinamo is doing quite good in the league and having seen the previous game I think they can get a result here. It's tricky to recommend but based upon the fact that they give a key player rest, have other injuries and their absolute lack of form I do give it a shot. It is still PSV and they have the players to defeat Dinamo but there is a real oppertunity here in my opinion I think PSV wants out of the Euro league to fully concentrate on the Eredivisie. For PSV's financial situation they really have to get into the CL if they want to remain a Topside in the Netherlands. Their budget just from the Tv rights and so fort is not enough as they are not as big as Feyenoord & Ajax. I suppose the board might has convinced the trainer that they have to focus on the league as the future of PSV depends on it. They cannot afford another year missing out on the CL. I do not recommend anything but these are my bets: 1.5 Points Dinamo Zagreb AH+1 5,5 @ Bet365 1 Point Dinamo to win @ 8.00 Paddypower

[Ajax v Celtic > Wednesday November 6th]

Re: Ajax v Celtic > Wednesday November 6th As predicted as always they win, good to make money of the rival :cow

[Zenit Saint-Petersburg v FC Porto > Wednesday November 6th]

Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v FC Porto > Wednesday November 6th Fancy Zenit too here, Porto is lacking their superior form at the moment and dissapoint heavily in the league. Zenit in Saint Petersburg is a massive hurdle to take for them. Hulk will be motivated from top till toe and that is a recipe for disaster for the Portugese. I am playing along with Aidymac :cheers

[Ajax v Celtic > Wednesday November 6th]

Re: Ajax v Celtic > Wednesday November 6th Really tough one this, since some poorer Dutch sides recently gave Ajax a run for their money I guess you could state that Celtic can win this. However it is played in the Arena and with their backs against the wall Ajax often rises to the challenge and puts up a good performance. That is what this team has done for the past 2 seasons and it won them the league twice after being 10-15 points behind during the winter break. Then again they had their fantastic creative midfielder Eriksen. Taking everything into account I do have some confidence in Ajax altough they play really under their level in the league recently they put up a good performance against AC Milan and should have won that game if it wasn't for the strange penalty in the dying minutes. Frank de Boer has made it very clear to his team and in the press that the reputation of Dutch Football is at stake tonight. Personally I think that was ruined a long time ago :) As a supporter of the opposition I have seen the ajaxluck so many times in similar situations like this that I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt and take an Ajax home win. The Handicap +1 on Celtic seems just as viable however I know these bastards too well and when it's crunch time they stand up to it. 1,5 point Ajax to win @ 1.83 Paddypower

[Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 5th]

Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 5th Chickened out a bit on the final bet still took shakhtar but with a void if drawn. Cheers for some good opinions on this one talked me out of the straight win. Having seen the game I was right to have every reason to believe Shakhtar could defeat Bayer but it was open game it could have gone either way in the 2nd half.

[Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 5th]

Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 5th If we talk about embarrassing away losses, look at Leverkussens loss to Braunschweig this weekend. The latter being at best a mid table 2nd Bundesliga team who are getting beat left and right by mediocre Bundesliga sides. But none of you seems to take that in the equation whilst counting the loss to Volyn heavily? Think Shakthar are overpriced for a Bayer that is struggling with not only Braunschweig but was with Augsburg and Hoffenheim too. The Ukrainians have a score to settle and have the quality to give Leverkusen a very tough game. I feel like taking a small gamble tonight 2 points @ Shakthar to win @ 2.31 Pinnacle

[Some good betting system websites?]

Re: Some good betting system websites? Doesn't he mean just a website that has the tools to just keep track of a system he wants to test?

[Yet another Over/Under Goals System: 200 bets, +5% yield]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... I think you have answered my question quite well I think it sounds more complicated than it is but I am quite impressed and playing fully along with you so keep it up :clap I think the bookies work with a general system of odds that basicly valuates the probability upon some logical parameters stemming from recent performance and historical probabliity. I do not think they are really trend sensitive, as you discovered this trend in the EPl, CHP with your data analysis. I wonder if they would give a general odds penalty to notorious defensive/goal depraved leagues like the Italian league or if they take trends into consideration at all. I get where you coming from after finding this article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2421763/Premier-League-averages-lowest-goals-game-ratio-time.html So you are most definitely correct on this trend it would be interesting to see if there are more leagues with low goal scoring trends as opposed to the average historical trend in the league. There is truly value to find I agree as the bookies tend to have a general approach. What leagues have you taking into consideration so far? Perhaps the Serie B or the Ligue 1 could be a candidate for further ventures.

[Yet another Over/Under Goals System: 200 bets, +5% yield]

Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Great run this week congratulations. It seems as though the system most likely finds value in unders as you have only selected unders so far. Bit strange maybe the bookies undervaluate unders? Maybe it is league related and the bookies tend to have a general system for all leagues that does not rate leagues specifically. My question would be how do you determine if a league is more prone to unders or overs? Obviously you would study historic data but do you just collect the amount of overs and unders over the past years and weigh them?

[Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14]

Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14 Unfortunate, the win was not deserved at all Cambuur had the better of the game for the first half and most of the second half but could not get the opening goal. This league has gone beserk and it is becoming harder to predict anything. PSV drew Zwolle at home who are an overrated promoted side and Ajax lost to Vitesse at home and Twente drew the relegation candidate NEC at home. Everything goes against logic in this league at the moment. Hope we can catch on to that a bit next week. So far AZ seems the only stable team under the best coach in the league Dick Advocaat, He coached Zenith to a Euro league win and Russia into the EC semi finals. I think for stability choose AZ, the other teams will probably keep their instability. Funnily enough next week it is Feyenoord - AZ, Pelle will still be suspended. I can't imagine we repeat this trick twice our play was too poor to deserve a win. If no shocking injuries happen this week I will most likely take another bet against my own team, hate to do it but I don't think we will be lucky twice. Let's preview in a few days.

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Won :) Linfield vs Ards 5-2 ( + infamous dancing banana :nana)

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Here is my First: Northern Ireland IFA Premiership Linfield vs Ards @ 1,20 Betvictor 1) Out of a total 15 meetings Linfield won 12 = 80% strike rate. 2) Linfield won 4, draw 1 and Ards won 2 and lost 3. Giving Linfield a 13 point advantage.

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Cheers Scott I staked a little bigger and my trust in you payed off :) Curious to what you select tomorrow if you need some help just give a shout and maybe some people on here can help you make selections.Any particular set of leagues you focus on?

[Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014]

Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 Quick tip for tonight: Heerenveen - VVV Venlo: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.93 Betvictor. Heerenveen - VVV Venlo: AH -1 @ 1.82 Betvictor VVV plays a league lower than Heerenveen, at home Heerenveen are a goalmachine against weaker teams. They make alot of goals and concede alot and are this season's perfect over bet in the Eredivisie. I expect at least 3 goals from Heerenveen and the 4th coming from the visitors or Alfred Finbogasson. VVV is much weaker than Heerenveen. But they score and concede their fair share of goals in the lower league. You have about 20 minutes left, trust me on the stats just decide if the risk is worth it to you :)

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi yes so far I like his accuracy let's see how it develops overtime. The accuracy of home clean sheet is in fact the highest value you can get next to the original system. Since you cannot change the criteria for the match selection I think it will be too hard to start predicting home clean sheets on a regular basis. But if he can keep this up I think after about 50 or a 100 picks we can draw some better conclusions of what is most likely to happen next after a win for the home team. As for the 1000 stake, I personally do not bet like that but if you can lose 1000 sterling at a risk of 4.8% then I think it it is wise to keep an eye on this system. I would however never recommend anyone to bet like that because of the risk on red cards, fixed matches and so on. I do have a mistrust of the Eastern European Leagues that are often in his selections. Just google it or, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2124515/FIFPro-chief-claims-match-fixing-rife-eastern-European-clubs-BUYING-league-positions.html There is one article out of many. If you are a regular punter in football you have to consider matchfixing and therefore betting those stakes I would only do that for top western league teams that are not as easy to fix, leaving a very sparse selection of games.

[Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14]

Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14 At the moment I can fully recommend the Dutch Eredivisie league as a league with alot of good value. This season anyone beats anyone and we are getting some really suprising results and corresponding great odds for predictable suprises. My recommended pick this weekend is a bet against my own team, Feyenoord. We are playing Cambuur Leeuwarden away and have a history of problems with the tough home sides in the north of the country.Key aspect to this bet is that our topscorer Pelle is suspended and he is the only one who can make goals for our Team. He has 10 goals in 11 matches and the guys who come after him only have one or two goals. The replacing strikers are really crap, a player on loan who was send away at Anderlecht and a 20 year old youth team striker with no eredivisie experience. I expect us to make one goal at best. The team and the tactics were build on Pelle. Yesterday he was not playing and we had a very lucky 3-0 win in an awful peformance against an amateur club in the Dutch cup. In the past weekend we lost at home to Heracles Almelo 1-2 who are of the same quality as Cambuur and then we even had Pelle. Cambuur plays with their heart and just defeated nac breda at home in the Dutch cup and are in a good mood and form. I expect no result a loss here for us so: Cambuur Leeuwarden - Feyenoord: Result Cambuur win @ 3.8 Betvictor.

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Good suggestion forgot all about that bet type as I don't usually make it. I think we need about 50 to 100 results before we can really draw representative conclusions but I agree the home clean sheet seems a big value trend with this one.

[La Liga > October 29th - 31st]

Re: La Liga > October 29th - 31st I think a BTTS bet or a over bet will be very interesting for the Celta v Barcelona game. Celta just beat Malaga 5-0 and the psychology of a team who achieved such a result is usually overconfidence in the next game. If we can beat Malaga 5-0 why can't we not try something against Barca who are rotating and who just played el Classico and are tired. It is then when teams try something against Barca that they get absolutely murdered by them. I am really expecting goals tonight so currently considering over 3.5 @ Pinnacle but it seems risky the odd on over 2.5 is too low imo around 1.4. Another good and somewhat safer bet is BTTS score @ 1.8 Betvictor.

[Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014]

Re: Dutch Cup season 2013 / 2014 MVV - ADO Den Haag Under 3.5 @ 1.65 Mybet Great price for under 3.5 for two teams that have problems with making goals. I expect MVV to play their usual defensive style, especially when so much is at stake for them. MVV in their past league matches have 9 games in a row under 3.5. ADO is when playing away not a team that makes the play and will not score more than one or two goals in my opinion.

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi, It's nice to hear you are also looking into creating a bit more value I think it is definitely possible. I think however you should not change your system I would keep this what you have going now and call it like the base value system or something. Then you could perhaps split your bankroll in 2 and invest 50% in the base system and 50% in a bigger value per bet system. Looking at the results right now we see: 1 GERMANY v Austria 3-0 2 LEVADIA v Takkeka Tartu 2-0 3 BENFICA v Ferreira 3-1 4 ANDERLECHT v Mechelen 5-0 5 PARTIZAN BELGRADE v OFK Belgrade 2-0 6 ANZOATEGUI v Zulia 1-0 7 SUDUVA v Tauras 3-1 8 LEVSKI v Neftochimic Burgas 6-0 9 PORTO v Guimaraes 1-0 10 BAYERN MUNICH v Wolfsburg 1-0 11 VALENCIA v Vallecano 1-0 12 ANORTHOSIS v Doxa 1-2 13 ZALGIRIS v Dainava Alytus 1-0 14 DANUBIO v Juventud 4-1 15 ANORTHOSIS v Achnas 2-1 16 NS vs Connah's Q. 5-0 17 MAN UNITED v Stoke 3-2 18 SILLAMAE KALEV v Tammeka Tartu 6-0 19 FLORA v Kuressaare 4-0 20 SHAKHTAR v Zorya 4-0 21 DYNAMO KIEV v Mariupol 1-0 In green is what I can discover to be the biggest value trend in your system and that is a 61% over 2.5 goals strike rate. The other more accurate but less valuable trend is over 1.5 goals and that has a 71% strike rate, over 3.5 goals has a 47% strike rate. Maybe there is a way to more accurately predict if a game will produce an over 2.5 result I think that is where a possible big value increase is possible. The AH Handicap -1 is at 52% Accuracy and the AH Handicap -2 is at 38% accuracy. The 52% is still interesting but the 38% is imo too low to be considered reliable. So I think if there is away that we can increase the over 2.5 goals prediction ability of the system to 70-75% or the over 1.5 to 80% or higher, then the system will be able to return much more value. If you would split your bank into a secure version that just bets results and a 2nd version that bets over 1,5 or 2.5 based upon some new criteria then I think it will become a very interesting system to play every week.

[3 Key Attributes]

Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi Scott, I really like your system and I appreciate your effort. My only criticism is that there is not alot of value to get from it yet. The highest odd it got was 1.4 so far which requires a rather large stake to be interesting. Not even talking about the ones lower than 1.15 they require gigantic stakes to be interesting and then all it takes is one bad day for the team to cause a major headache. So I would like to think with you to find a way to create more value per bet. Is it possible to implement an AH rule for some of the matches you predict? Maybe if home team plays against a bottom 6 of the league team, an AH-1 or -2 is allowed? Perhaps overs and unders can also add value.

[Argentina > Primera division > 2013/14]

Re: Argentina > Primera division > 2013/14 That's probably true but what I ment is this season I decided to try betting outside of Europe and so far I made only losses in anything outside of my trusted leagues. Since I don't have the time to follow them I just leave it to the people who do :p My lesson is if I don't watch the games and know the clubs very well than it is really not good to stake big and since I don't like messing with mini stakes I just leave it all together. I don't think I Generalize or mix countries then. By the way it was nice to give your opinion when it was clear Olimpo was about done but I would have really appreciated it beforehand ;)