Ziener
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Posts posted by Ziener
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Re: Ukraine > Premier League > 2013/14 Anyone a bit familiar with this league? The odds on shakhtar are ridiculously short for a side that lost 2 away games to middle class teams Volyn Lutsk and Karpaty recently. So i was considering a pun on Chornomorets as I see them capable of getting a draw because they do not look as dire to me as the odds might portray. There are no critical injuries on either side so maybe a guy familar with the league could give me a word of advice. Cheers.
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Re: Overs/Unders Betting Nice start :ok
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Re: Netherlands Jupiler League 2013/2014
Yes I agree there will definitely be some value on laying the youth teams when the league progresses. Psv, Twente and Ajax have these teams now backed up every now and again with some first squad material but they cannot keep doing that. Also FC Eindhoven is worth to keep an eye one. Considering the schedule they have had so far and the fact that they are still in 2nd place right now, tells me they are real title contender. They have played the 4 most difficult away games already so they can really form a threat to Dordrecht. They have had some years of misery and because of that an unstable reputation. So the bookies are still a bit reluctant to give them the favourit odds but I guess after tonight they will cut the odds a bit more when it comes to Eindhoven. I like this squad alot it´s a really good mix of youngsters and experienced players and they have such a fighting spirit. They went down 1-0 tonight in the first minute and still managed to stay calm and grab the 3 points. They perform the best in away games so far so really a nice side to back with some good odds attached to them.I would imagine PSV get worse as the season goes on too as they lose players to the main squad. -
Re: Netherlands Jupiler League 2013/2014 Cheers Jase for taking part in the analysis, by trying to convince you I also convinced myself to stake a little more and I like beating those tricky mondays ;) Hope you made some money out of it. On to the next one :hope
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Re: Netherlands Jupiler League 2013/2014 May I add to that that Eindhoven have played the entire current league top 5, excluding themselves, away already and they have come out with an impressive 7 points out of 4 games, winning 2, drawing one and barely losing one against opponents, Sparta,Graafschap,Dordrecht and Willem II with the previously mentioned results. They even deserved a win against current top of the league Dordrecht. They went up 1-3. They were entirely unlucky not to get the draw in the end as a Dordrecht player scored in the 94th minute making it 4-3. So If you play all these sides so well I cannot call that luck anymore especially when they were all away games. Yes they can have a bad day and lose to PSV II but I believe in them based upon previous performance and PSV II without the 3 players that would make me seriously doubt. We will see later, odds dropped about 0.5-1 overall. I took the DNB myself @ 2.00 but I am not sure if it is still up for that price. Best of luck.
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Re: Netherlands Jupiler League 2013/2014
Let me put it this way if any of those 3 were playing I would skip this bet, especially Narsingh who is a Dutch national team right winger. Bakkali is still eligble to play for the Youth team but since he played already on sunday he will not. Jozefsoon is also a very talented attacker with Eredivisie experience and he will not be there. So lets take a relatively comparable home game, PSV youth - Volendam.Volendam is weaker in defense but I would rate them sort of equal to Eindhoven as it is right now the only game that is comparable. Volendam lost 3-0 with Narsingh scoring the first 2 goals. If you ask me is there still a risk that the PSV II team will simply beat Eindhoven with some talented youngsters? Yes definitely. But without the ones I fear most I am willing to take the risk taking into account that Eindhoven is one of the few strong away performing teams that have truly impressed me. I cant really find any other comparable games as PSV have not played the top flight on their ground, they have yet to play a top 5 team which will happen today. True that the youngsters won some games without these 3 and are in good shape. But like I said with any of the previously mentioned 3 playing I would skip the bet.Good information and worth a punt maybe. The only issues for me are that Narsingh has only played three games for Jong PSV this season. Bakkali hasn't played for Jong PSV this season. Jozefzoon has only played five games this season for Jong PSV as well. I'd be interested to know who has played regularly for Jong PSV and who is important enough an absence to make Eindhoven worth taking? -
Re: Netherlands Jupiler League 2013/2014 PSV Youth - Eindhoven FC Derby game in the city of Eindhoven with suprising high odds on better side Eindhoven. I expect Eindhoven to win here they are at full strength and PSV youth are not. All of PSV's really talentend youth players played against Feyenoord yesterday, meaning that today names like Narsingh ( Dutch national team ) , Bakkali ( Belgian national team ), Jozefsoon and so fort will not play for the Youth team. These guys played decisive roles in most of PSV's youth home wins. The top players from PSV did not play last week in the game PSV youth- Almere City ( 17th place ) and PSV youth got a 2-2 at home against a relegation candidate. Eindhoven play for the title and I expect them to beat the youngsters they are a much tougher opponent than Almere city. Eindhoven are in place 4 with 33 points and PSV youth in place 10 with 26 points. Eindhoven have alot of experienced players while PSV youth is composed of inexperienced youngsters. I expect that the battle over supremacy in Eindhoven will lead to a highly motivated away side that will outclass the youngsters today. Eindhoven always put up a strong away performance defeating promoting candidates like Graafschap, Willem II drawing 2nd placed Sparta and barely losing to league number one Dordrecht. It's a derby and they are tricky bets but I expect experience to win today. Possible Bets: Eindhoven to win @ 2,91 Pinnacle Eindhoven DNB @ 2,10 Betvictor
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Re: Half time over / under system Oof luck was a right bastard this week loads of 1-0's. Good thing there was a buffer from the past weeks, no harm done. Unfortunate m8 let's hope fortune favours us next time :ok
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14 Heerenveen - Go Ahead Eagles Some nice information for this match, all of Heerenveen's 3 central strikers are injured and will not be able to play in the match. That includes Finnbogason with his 11 matches played and 14 goals made. Finnbogason is the only reason Heerenveen are not in a relegation place at this moment. I find Heerenveen very weak even with the Icelandic wizard but he just keeps making the goals for them so they can get a decent few points. This is a good time to take a chance in the league of surprises. A chance is the right word because Go Ahead Eagles are nothing short of a terrible side as well. But you can see it as a fight between two relegation candidates without Finnbogason. They are actually only 3 points and 4 places apart. Go ahead hold place 13 and Heerenveen place 9. It definitely could go eitherway and Heerenveen can still beat this Go Ahead who have a very poor away record. They got smashed away against Ajax and NAC with respectively 6-0 and 5-0. But they are capable of winning and drawing here and there and are unbeaten at home for 4 games now. Now that Finnbogason is out the go ahead coach will them this is a once in a lifetime chance to get a point or 3 at Heerenveen. I think they will be motivated, ready and can grab a draw or win. I must say that this is very risky still. Go ahead are simply poor away but Heerenveen is now severely handicapped even thought they have a good record at home. I cannot really recommend this one as you have to be willing to take a substantial risk. I am placing a small stake on a straight Eagles win, feel the AH-x is not worth the risk of Heerenveen simply capping the Eagle's wings like NAC and Ajax did. It is about 2,00 @ various bookies but really that is not worth a medium stake. You can place a small stake on it but I rather take a long shot then for 6 times my stake. Good luck. 1 unit @ Eagles to win @ 6.00 Mybet
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Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14
So after tonight's defeat of PSV at Ludogorets in the Europa League' date=' where PSV played with the strongest possible formation, confidence is nowhere to be found in Eindhoven. PSV played absolutely horrible.[/quote'] Well Cocu said he will make changes and PSV will change some names and positions. Feyenoord will make changes too after their disaster. So the question is what will the changes be in PSVs case probably more defensively on the midfield. Both sides have a really low confidence which still makes this a tricky one. I think we should wait untill we know what changes PSV is going to make to the squad. Feyenoord is defintely going to ditch the kick and rush plan and play more oppertunistic Dutch style football which usually leads to more chances but also more chances for PSV. Lets see what PSV does to their squad and then I think we can make a final recommendation. -
Re: Europa League > Thursday November 28th
Well done m8 nice recovery :clap0 : 2 77` min... looks like i `ll get my peanuts tonight :D -
Re: Europa League > Thursday November 28th Latest update on Ludogorets - PSV PSV is fielding their strongest possible Line-up, so is Ludo. PSV play with only one defensive midfielder and two attacking midfielders in a midfield of 3 + 3 more attackers. If you have Narsingh, Toivonen, Maher and Depay there has got to be one or two goals in this game for PSV. It tells me the 0-0 is not wanted by PSV and imo not expected. To be frank I expect that PSV could get a result here tonight because Ludogorets is qualified but will not one to give away the top position in the group so easily. If PSV go 0-1 Ludogorets will want at least a draw. I expect goals regardless of the statistics but I could honestly not call a winner on this. Good luck.
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Re: Europa League > Thursday November 28th
Paok need a point to qualify and play with their strongest line-up. Paok is defensively speaking quite solid in away games. Judging from the line-up PAOK wants to win here and are more than capable but they might also just be satisfied with defending the 0-0 if it is still there in the 2nd half. I defintely see PAOK or draw as the outcome here, I do not dare to make a prediction of the score bets I doubt PAOK is going to play an open game. Shakthar players might have some loss of form due to not playing reguarly anymore. Anyway I can't clarify this one but best of luck m8 :hopeisn`t it shaktar karagandy season over or something ? thir last game was 2 and 1/2 weeks ago and next in 10 days in europe league.... they play full strength squad they are fresh..... paok has strongest squad here out as well.... this team at home beat celtics 2 - 0 and lost to paok only 2 - 1 .... i think there`s an value on karagandy.... DNB @ 3.25 2 % of my betting fund both teams to score @ 1.66 3 % of my betting fund both teams to score and shaktar to win @ 9 1 % of my betting fund all with paddypower.... both teams to score, in case of loss should still earn my a price for free peanuts here :D in europe league, even if you don`t need qnything , goals and wins gives extra money for club, so it`s not like they out here to sit on pitch and wait for whistle + no pressure -
Re: Netherlands > Eredivisie > 2013/14
I think they represent real value her but yes you never know with these Feyenoord bastards ;) What makes me hesitate the most is PSV's run of defeat's they have 4 defeats in a row in league away games now. AZ, Groningen AZ Roda and NAC. This run has got to come to an end at some point I think that is what the bookies are banking on. Cold stats analysis will tell you that Feyenoord have the best chances here. We just had the next major disaster against RKC away and the team had a big talk this weekend according to the press with lots of heated arguments. Apparently they are sick of the long balls on Pelle strategy and want to play in a more creative attack. If they are capable is a second. It reminds me of 2010 when there was this crisis after the big PSV defeat. There was a similar get together and it created a fighting spirit that took Feyenoord out of the crisis that year. I think this is a similar turning point. PSV also have more critical injuries; Willems,Matavz,Park and Wijnaldum. Rekik and Bruma, central defense duo of PSV, are former Feyenoord youth players who now play for PSV they will get the entire 45.000 public against them. It's like a sin of death at Feyenoord for players to transfer to PSV or Ajax they will be boo-ed untill infinity and the public will distract them as much as possible. It's hard to not make mistake and focus when 45.000 people are booing you at every move, plus they are young and young players are generally a bit impressed and overtaken by the Kuip, PSV have alot of youngsters with little experience in such stadiums. I think I will take the Feyenoord to win 2.35 odds @ Mybet. Another interesting bet is over 2.5 goals @ 1,64 Pinnacle. Because if we change our play style from long ball to creative attacking we will give away alot more space and I expect Maher or Toivonen definitely be able to score one goal as I do expect Pelle to at least make one or two goals against PSV's inexperienced defense. The odds are a bit low though so I am not to enthusiastic about the overs at the moment.Feyenoord represents some value. -
Re: Europa League > Thursday November 28th Ludogorets - PSV Eindhoven. Very interesting match here to me. First things first Ludogorets is already qualified and PSV have to win in order to secure qualification, a draw would be enough too as they can stilll finish it next week against main competitors Odessa. One would say the value is on PSV as the Ludogorets coach might use this match to rest some players. However the PSV team has their priorities elsewhere at the moment, definitely not in the Euroleague. They are at a baffling 8th place in the Dutch league and have not won an away match in the Dutch league since the 8th of August. They have lost their past 4 Away matches in the Dutch league, I cannot recall that ever happening in my lifetime. They are crumbling at the moment and it seems interesting to bet against PSV. They have 4 key injuries, Topscorer Wijnaldum, best defender Willems, their most experienced striker Matavz and their best and most experienced midfielder Park Ji-Sung Park. Euroleague has little or nothing to offer for PSV because their financial life completly depends on qualifying for the Champions league, which is looking extremely grim right now due to their league position. They have some young players that obviously have their honour and want to win every game but I cannot believe the coach is this stupid to not rest their key players in the unimportant Euroleague. The odds on Ludogorets are quite high around 3.00 at average bookmakers. Now the question is how serious does Ludogorets take the match? This is something I cannot find any information on and therefore I cannot recommend any result bet yet. They are a rookie in Europe and I think they want to make their mark and win all they can. They have already beat PSV away in PSV stadium when there was something at stake but I find it not possible to really predict what they will do, rest important players, be content with a draw etc. They have a reasonable 6 points lead in the Bulgarian league so I do not think they have to rest players but does anyone from Bulgaria have any info on Ludogorets and their strategy for this game? PSV captain says they want to win this game to give a much needed boost to their confidence. Any experienced coach will tell them to focus on the league but they might be stupid enough now to actually go for it in this game. I would like to bet an Ludogorets +0,5 2.08 @ Betvictor and an over 2.5 @ 2,07 @ Pinnacle because if PSV will go for the attack they score quite easily but also concede very easily as they have conceded one goal at least in every away game in the Dutch league. Ludogorets will get enough chances to score too in that case and are capable enough to score 2 or more against PSV's current defense. It however all depends on what Ludogorets have in mind for this game. So it might be a last minute bet or not depending upon Ludo's line up. The draw in all circumstances seems very likely as PSV and Ludogorets will be content with it.
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Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system.....
Well you are doing a grand job and it´s nice you keep giving great advice. It´s always risky to put yourself out there so I appreciate it alot. Maybe black monday will come sooner or later but it looks like this system can take some hits. I find it very impressive how you remain profitable over all these weekends without taking goal data into consideration.Thanks Ziener. Before I started the thread I made the decision to commit to posting selections for the whole season. I've been running an earlier version of this and also a home wins system for a couple of years so I'm already in the habit of keeping my spreadsheet updated each week so its just a case of coming on here to post the selections. It's going OK so far but a long way to go yet for the season. By the way, this weekend is yet again looking like it is all unders. Perhaps I should rename the thread title at this rate.:D -
Re: Half time over / under system Thankyou will take part, best of luck to us both :hope
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Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Thankyou for your efforts. Most people give up their system after a few weeks, but you keep going and with good results :clap
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Re: Criteria by Category, a Soccer Strategy: +89 pts, +83% yield Nice system. Just a question do you do research on injuries and do you take them into account or do you purely recommend a game on statistical data? Keep up the good work I will free up some money to play along with you :cheers
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Re: Netherlands Jupiler League 2013/2014 Big game! :cow Sparta Rotterdam - FC Dordrecht Big game in the Jupiler League tomorrow. The number 2 Sparta Rotterdam, receives number 1 side FC Dordrecht. Now here comes the juicy detail, FC Dordrecht's attacking right winger and best player Giovanni Korte ( 15 games, 11 goals ) got injured on the training in Thursday. He has been of super importance to Dordrecht usually opening the score or extending it and playing a key role in Dordrecht's attack. Sparta Rotterdam is at full strength and is the strongest home side in the Jupiler League, they have not lost one home game so far in the league. In the past weeks they have had excellent results demolishing reasonable side Den Bosch ( 7-1 ) and good side De Graafschap ( 3-0 ). Whilst Dordrecht are fairly weak playing away having lost to FC Twente youth team recently. In fairness they demolised Ajax youth 0-4 but they got an early red card and are one of the crappiest teams in the league. In all of their good wins Korte played a huge role. This is a big derby and a rivarly in the province of South Holland and it is also the fight for the 1st place with Sparta just one point short of Dordrecht. So much at stake! Sparta will know this is the game of the season and they have to win this. Now is the perfect time with Dordrecht facing a major loss in the attack and I expect this will deal a blow to their confidence. Dordrecht have one more reasonable player left in the attack, their other strong left winger Danso ( 11 games, 7 goals ). But the coach left him out in the past 3 games so that tells me he is not totally satisfied with him and with lacking his manager's trust I do not expect great things from him. Sparta also play really solid at home and I do not expect them to have much problems with the replacements. After reading de Korte is out I jumped on this game like a hungry dog on a bone :p I do not recommend bets you have to do with the information what you want to do and if you feel comfortable enough with the league you can give it a try. My bets are: Sparta DNB 1,62 @ Betvictor Sparta to win 2,15 @ Pinnacle Good luck!
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Re: Ligue 2 > November 8th & 11th It's unfortunate man, better luck next time. Good lesson is to never bet much on leages you know little about, regardless of how good the tipster is. Onwards and Upwards ;)
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Re: Ligue 2 > November 8th & 11th
Half an hour wont do no good anymore, I learned my lesson ;)might be one of those days but still half an hour to go! -
Re: Ligue 2 > November 8th & 11th Oh boy all 3 AH down 1 already, this is not going great to put it mildly.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th In the line up he is posted as a striker but that might be wrong informatio I Have gotten. Cisse is not impressive at all to me but I could be wrong. However Bony just did exactly what I wrote and opened up with 0-1 for Swansea. Now let's hope Popov does the same and doesn't score, cmon Swansea :)
Ukraine > Premier League > 2013/14
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted
Re: Ukraine > Premier League > 2013/14 I am taking BTTS score here I think it is justified by Shakthars poor away performance recently having Karpaty and Volyn score 2-3 goals against them. Chorno´s got a good home record and I expect a draw or slight win for Shakthar. Its @ 1,91 Paddypower. I know little about this league so I do not recommend anything just liked the price on BTTS.