four-leaf

Two bets for me today
Jay Clarke to beat Bernard Tomic at 2.75 with bet365
Jay is a 19 year old teenager and he can follow in the same steps as Kyle Edmund. Seen him play a few times on clay so far this season and he's very dangerous, he's got a good game. Sure he's doing a lot of unforced errors but also hits a lot of winners that makes up for the errors, he's surely on the rise. Bernard is always worth to oppose nowadays and clay is not a surface he can excel on. Jay is worth a try. Bernard is always in the riskzone of being eliminated in tournaments on clay. Jay has the talent to beat Bernard and can hustle his way to victory here. Only thing that scares me from opposing Bernard is his serve and it seems to be working well on clay. Unless the name Tomic scares you this is a good bet since Bernard at 1.40 is a bit to low or Jay at 2.75 is to high.
Hugo Dellien to beat Adam Pavlasek at 2.25 with bet365
Hugo is going strong nowadays and his biggest goal this year is to qualify for RG, a goal which he set up after winning his first challenger title in april. Adam is not going strong nowadays and needs a big reset to get back to where he once was. Hugo has confidence and is playing well now so I'm defenitely on the bolivian to win this. I know what makes the czech the favourite here since he is at his best on clay but all his done this season is winning a clay challenger in Rome just before Rome masters where he beat a fatigued Laslo Djere in the final. Should be 50/50 this match not 1.57-2.25. Adam also never really has passed the RG qualies except for 2016 when he lost to Laslo Djere in the qualies final round but got in as a lucky loser which doesn't count.

Two more bets for me today
Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Lucie Safarova at 1.80 with bet365
Best form on clay right now of these two is ofcourse Su-Wei who has. Lucie is short on match practice so for her to win this match would be a surprise for me. I think Lucie got what she wanted in Strasbourg, she won a match and gets two matches to play for some match practice ahead of RG. Su-Wei is in good form now and will win this in my book.
Bradley Mousley to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 2.75 with bet365
Can't understand how the bookie is thinking here by making the aussie underdog since Emil has yet to make anything big happen in his young career. He's from Finland like Jarkko Nieminen but Jarkko reached the Stockholm open final only 17 years old so he's got some big shoes to fill and I don't think he's good enough yet to beat a guy like Bradley who is 5 years older and ranked 270 spots higher and who already has beaten a few top 200 players this season. Bradley has lost almost 8 matches in a row to some top 200 players in Mexico and France so it probably makes him the underdog but Emil is not a top 200 player.

Two bets for me today
Jay Clarke to beat Bernard Tomic at 2.75 with bet365
Jay is a 19 year old teenager and he can follow in the same steps as Kyle Edmund. Seen him play a few times on clay so far this season and he's very dangerous, he's got a good game. Sure he's doing a lot of unforced errors but also hits a lot of winners that makes up for the errors, he's surely on the rise. Bernard is always worth to oppose nowadays and clay is not a surface he can excel on. Jay is worth a try. Bernard is always in the riskzone of being eliminated in tournaments on clay. Jay has the talent to beat Bernard and can hustle his way to victory here. Only thing that scares me from opposing Bernard is his serve and it seems to be working well on clay. Unless the name Tomic scares you this is a good bet since Bernard at 1.40 is a bit to low or Jay at 2.75 is to high.
Hugo Dellien to beat Adam Pavlasek at 2.25 with bet365
Hugo is going strong nowadays and his biggest goal this year is to qualify for RG, a goal which he set up after winning his first challenger title in april. Adam is not going strong nowadays and needs a big reset to get back to where he once was. Hugo has confidence and is playing well now so I'm defenitely on the bolivian to win this. I know what makes the czech the favourite here since he is at his best on clay but all his done this season is winning a clay challenger in Rome just before Rome masters where he beat a fatigued Laslo Djere in the final. Should be 50/50 this match not 1.57-2.25. Adam also never really has passed the RG qualies except for 2016 when he lost to Laslo Djere in the qualies final round but got in as a lucky loser which doesn't count.

One more bet for me today
Lukas Lacko to beat (-1.5 sets) Yosuke Watanuki at 2.20 with bet365
At 20 years old Yosuke is ranked 283 and he took a set from Vasek Pospisil last saturday in the Busan semifinal but I happened to be awake then and watched the livestream at bet365 and Vasek was horrible, just plain awful and so was the japanese and deservedly Vasek lost the final easily in straight sets to Matt Ebden. Apart from playing just crap all match and taking a set of an equally crappy canadian he's now only at 2.50 to win this match against a top 100 player he's never faced before. He ofcourse never has beaten a top 100 player either but come on he just played a long tournament in Busan and has travelled to England from South Korea and now he's a bit expected to do miracles on hardcourt in europe. Apart from being a clear underdog he's likely tired and will come up against a seasoned pro veteran with a big first serve. Vasek played really bad and didn't even get his big first serve going and didn't even deserve to win the match but won probably because of more experience. Yosuke really needs experience to be able to beat top 200 players consistenly. But here in this match I'm afraid he'll get outserved and will not be able to win a set. Only negative about this bet is that I haven't seen Lukas play lately but he played quite well in Bratislava challenger last season winning the final in straight sets against Marius Copil. Long time ago now I know but still he's first seeded and it's gonna take a lot for him to lose a set here, he'll have to play as bad as Vasek for that to work.

Two more bets for me today
Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Lucie Safarova at 1.80 with bet365
Best form on clay right now of these two is ofcourse Su-Wei who has. Lucie is short on match practice so for her to win this match would be a surprise for me. I think Lucie got what she wanted in Strasbourg, she won a match and gets two matches to play for some match practice ahead of RG. Su-Wei is in good form now and will win this in my book.
Bradley Mousley to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 2.75 with bet365
Can't understand how the bookie is thinking here by making the aussie underdog since Emil has yet to make anything big happen in his young career. He's from Finland like Jarkko Nieminen but Jarkko reached the Stockholm open final only 17 years old so he's got some big shoes to fill and I don't think he's good enough yet to beat a guy like Bradley who is 5 years older and ranked 270 spots higher and who already has beaten a few top 200 players this season. Bradley has lost almost 8 matches in a row to some top 200 players in Mexico and France so it probably makes him the underdog but Emil is not a top 200 player.

Two bets for me today
Jay Clarke to beat Bernard Tomic at 2.75 with bet365
Jay is a 19 year old teenager and he can follow in the same steps as Kyle Edmund. Seen him play a few times on clay so far this season and he's very dangerous, he's got a good game. Sure he's doing a lot of unforced errors but also hits a lot of winners that makes up for the errors, he's surely on the rise. Bernard is always worth to oppose nowadays and clay is not a surface he can excel on. Jay is worth a try. Bernard is always in the riskzone of being eliminated in tournaments on clay. Jay has the talent to beat Bernard and can hustle his way to victory here. Only thing that scares me from opposing Bernard is his serve and it seems to be working well on clay. Unless the name Tomic scares you this is a good bet since Bernard at 1.40 is a bit to low or Jay at 2.75 is to high.
Hugo Dellien to beat Adam Pavlasek at 2.25 with bet365
Hugo is going strong nowadays and his biggest goal this year is to qualify for RG, a goal which he set up after winning his first challenger title in april. Adam is not going strong nowadays and needs a big reset to get back to where he once was. Hugo has confidence and is playing well now so I'm defenitely on the bolivian to win this. I know what makes the czech the favourite here since he is at his best on clay but all his done this season is winning a clay challenger in Rome just before Rome masters where he beat a fatigued Laslo Djere in the final. Should be 50/50 this match not 1.57-2.25. Adam also never really has passed the RG qualies except for 2016 when he lost to Laslo Djere in the qualies final round but got in as a lucky loser which doesn't count.

3 bets for me today
Mandy Minella to beat Alison Riske at 2.50 with bet365
Mandy coming in to maindraw after winning in straight sets in both her qualifying matches and she's done it well. Clay is defenitely a surface that suits Mandy better than Alison who is at her best on hardcourt and grass and Riskes form and motivation is highly questionable on clay. One match between them in 2010 which Alison won in straight sets in Rancho Mirage in California on hard. That result doesn't matter here. Mandys ranking is at 307 because she's been away after having her first child. She's back and playing well again so I think she might just nick this one likely in straight sets.
For jackpot: Mandy Minella -1.5 sets at 4.00 with bet365
John Millman to beat Nicolas Kicker at 1.80 with bet365
John is confident now having reached his first ATP final and winning a clay challenger. He's playing good on the red stuff and should be up for a victory today. Nicolas has no form to speak of so it just feels as if John will likely take this as I don't see how he could be playing bad enough to lose a match like this right now. Lately Nicolas had a shot to play at home on clay in a DC rubber v Chile but lost and got replaced by Guido Pella. I don't know why he got picked over Guido Pella to represent Argentina in that rubber and in this matchup John has the better form.
Peter Gojowczyk to beat Ivo Karlovic at 1.72 with bet365
Peter did well for me last week beating this italian guy and he's beaten Ivo before last season acctually in Newport and clay is as most people know not Ivos prefered surface and Peter has a good gameplan nowadays and knows how to beat Ivo.
For jackpot: Peter Gojowczyk -1.5 sets at 2.75 with bet365

Pauline Parmentier 1.50 to beat Yafan Wang Bet365 @ Strasbourg Open
Yafan Wang rarely plays on clay and struggled against less experienced Asian opponents in the 250 Anning tournament in China .Parmentier will be on a high after winning the Istanbul clay tournament and with home ground motivation.
Happy to back Parmentier in this one
 

@TennisProfit Come on mate, treat this as a forum and not a chat, those separate "win" posts just don't help anyone.
 

a double from me today.
Kontaveit to beat Kuznetsova
Shapovalov to beat Haase
2.58 @ Pinnacle

And jackpot it is 

Naomi Osaka to beat Simona Halep at 3.10 with Pinnaclesports
Simona is not playing well lately. She was crap in Stuttgart and crap in Madrid and Naomi is playing like she's playing on hardcourt on clay so she seems to have found some kind of rythm and it's hard to break her game if she's in the zone like she was against Vika on monday. Similar to Karolina Pliskova in Madrid Naomi can do the straight sets again over Simona just like she did in Indian wells when she won 6-3 6-0. Naomi is playing awesome so I count on her to find her shots again tomorrow and sending this out of form world no.1 out of Rome nicely enough so she can prepare for Roland Garros. So I see it as if Naomi will do Simona a favour if she wins here. Another nice world no.1 win just before Roland Garros, yeah why not? Feels more likely that Simona dissapoints than Naomi doing it. Feels stupid to back Simona here when she's played so bad in Madrid and Stuttgart and smart to back Naomi who played awesome in first round. It's hard to be no.1, Simona probably feels the pressure and it gets to her.
For jackpot: Naomi Osaka -1.5 sets at 5.04 with Pinnaclesports

Naomi Osaka to beat Simona Halep at 3.10 with Pinnaclesports
Simona is not playing well lately. She was crap in Stuttgart and crap in Madrid and Naomi is playing like she's playing on hardcourt on clay so she seems to have found some kind of rythm and it's hard to break her game if she's in the zone like she was against Vika on monday. Similar to Karolina Pliskova in Madrid Naomi can do the straight sets again over Simona just like she did in Indian wells when she won 6-3 6-0. Naomi is playing awesome so I count on her to find her shots again tomorrow and sending this out of form world no.1 out of Rome nicely enough so she can prepare for Roland Garros. So I see it as if Naomi will do Simona a favour if she wins here. Another nice world no.1 win just before Roland Garros, yeah why not? Feels more likely that Simona dissapoints than Naomi doing it. Feels stupid to back Simona here when she's played so bad in Madrid and Stuttgart and smart to back Naomi who played awesome in first round. It's hard to be no.1, Simona probably feels the pressure and it gets to her.
For jackpot: Naomi Osaka -1.5 sets at 5.04 with Pinnaclesports

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 2.50 with bet365
Lorenzo has already done his part of the deal in Rome. He beat Adrian Mannarino and that's about enough for me. I'm sick of the italian. For me he's going out in straight sets here. He'll have no chance against Peter even if he tries to defend as mutch as he can. If Peter plays his game with well placed serves and good baseline play he wins. Lorenzo will try to play with a lot of court coverage and get balls back in play and hope for Peter to miss most of his shots eventually. Peter just knocked out 13 ranked Sam Querrey but he sucks on clay and Peter also sucks on clay but he's the higher ranked player here and therefore he's gonna beat Lorenzo who's done enough this tournament by beating one higher ranked player who also sucks on clay just like Peter. But because the italian beat one player higher ranked doesn't mean he will win his next match automatically.
For jackpot Peter Gojowczyk -1.5 sets at 4.00 with bet365

Benjamin Bonzi to beat Reilly Opelka at 2.25 with bet365
Benjamin is likely gonna fly tomorrow with his home advantage and surface advantage. He beat one big server in Denis Kudla and can beat another this wednesday. Wrong favourite here I think.

Naomi Osaka to beat Simona Halep at 3.10 with Pinnaclesports
Simona is not playing well lately. She was crap in Stuttgart and crap in Madrid and Naomi is playing like she's playing on hardcourt on clay so she seems to have found some kind of rythm and it's hard to break her game if she's in the zone like she was against Vika on monday. Similar to Karolina Pliskova in Madrid Naomi can do the straight sets again over Simona just like she did in Indian wells when she won 6-3 6-0. Naomi is playing awesome so I count on her to find her shots again tomorrow and sending this out of form world no.1 out of Rome nicely enough so she can prepare for Roland Garros. So I see it as if Naomi will do Simona a favour if she wins here. Another nice world no.1 win just before Roland Garros, yeah why not? Feels more likely that Simona dissapoints than Naomi doing it. Feels stupid to back Simona here when she's played so bad in Madrid and Stuttgart and smart to back Naomi who played awesome in first round. It's hard to be no.1, Simona probably feels the pressure and it gets to her.
For jackpot: Naomi Osaka -1.5 sets at 5.04 with Pinnaclesports

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 2.50 with bet365
Lorenzo has already done his part of the deal in Rome. He beat Adrian Mannarino and that's about enough for me. I'm sick of the italian. For me he's going out in straight sets here. He'll have no chance against Peter even if he tries to defend as mutch as he can. If Peter plays his game with well placed serves and good baseline play he wins. Lorenzo will try to play with a lot of court coverage and get balls back in play and hope for Peter to miss most of his shots eventually. Peter just knocked out 13 ranked Sam Querrey but he sucks on clay and Peter also sucks on clay but he's the higher ranked player here and therefore he's gonna beat Lorenzo who's done enough this tournament by beating one higher ranked player who also sucks on clay just like Peter. But because the italian beat one player higher ranked doesn't mean he will win his next match automatically.
For jackpot Peter Gojowczyk -1.5 sets at 4.00 with bet365

And jackpot it is 

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 2.50 with bet365
Lorenzo has already done his part of the deal in Rome. He beat Adrian Mannarino and that's about enough for me. I'm sick of the italian. For me he's going out in straight sets here. He'll have no chance against Peter even if he tries to defend as mutch as he can. If Peter plays his game with well placed serves and good baseline play he wins. Lorenzo will try to play with a lot of court coverage and get balls back in play and hope for Peter to miss most of his shots eventually. Peter just knocked out 13 ranked Sam Querrey but he sucks on clay and Peter also sucks on clay but he's the higher ranked player here and therefore he's gonna beat Lorenzo who's done enough this tournament by beating one higher ranked player who also sucks on clay just like Peter. But because the italian beat one player higher ranked doesn't mean he will win his next match automatically.
For jackpot Peter Gojowczyk -1.5 sets at 4.00 with bet365

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 2.50 with bet365
Lorenzo has already done his part of the deal in Rome. He beat Adrian Mannarino and that's about enough for me. I'm sick of the italian. For me he's going out in straight sets here. He'll have no chance against Peter even if he tries to defend as mutch as he can. If Peter plays his game with well placed serves and good baseline play he wins. Lorenzo will try to play with a lot of court coverage and get balls back in play and hope for Peter to miss most of his shots eventually. Peter just knocked out 13 ranked Sam Querrey but he sucks on clay and Peter also sucks on clay but he's the higher ranked player here and therefore he's gonna beat Lorenzo who's done enough this tournament by beating one higher ranked player who also sucks on clay just like Peter. But because the italian beat one player higher ranked doesn't mean he will win his next match automatically.
For jackpot Peter Gojowczyk -1.5 sets at 4.00 with bet365

Basilashvili vs Baldi - ATP Rome
there was a definite "playing at home" factor amongst the Italians yesterday and I'm hoping for more with Baldi today.
beating Marton Fucsovics and Guillermo Garcia Lopez in the quallies to get here was no mean feat.
Baldi +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Betway 

Collins vs Cirstea - WTA Rome
hard to see this going any other way than a win for Collins.
Cirstea's form is poor at the moment whilst Collins is on the up defeating Lepchenko and Giorgi in the quallies so should be nicely tuned in to the conditions.
1.80 @Bet365

Aleksandra Krunic to beat (-4.5) Roberta Vinci at 1.90 with bet365
Aleksandra defeated Roberta three times in 2015 and every time she covered this handicap. She will do it again without a doubt. Roberta is probably seeing the end of her career. Was even talk about her retirering last season along with Fran Schiavone but they both continued. However I think this will end with an easy win for Aleksandra.

Yunseong Chung (+3) to beat Matthew Ebden at 1.88 with Marathonbet
A talented youngster against Ebden? Count me in. Ebden has done absolutely nothing since Miami, while Chung has managed to beat Kubler and Saville to get here. Tie-breaks are always on the cards whenever Ebden is involved, so the handicap line looks good to me.

Aleksandra Krunic to beat (-4.5) Roberta Vinci at 1.90 with bet365
Aleksandra defeated Roberta three times in 2015 and every time she covered this handicap. She will do it again without a doubt. Roberta is probably seeing the end of her career. Was even talk about her retirering last season along with Fran Schiavone but they both continued. However I think this will end with an easy win for Aleksandra.