four-leaf

Good to wake up just in time to see Paire take the third set tie-break.. I went to sleep after Nick Kyrgios had broken Matt Ebden in third set for a 5-2 lead. Now off to new bets 

ATP Pune
Benoit Paire to beat Marton Fucsovics at 2.20 with Paddypower
Ridiculously enough Benoit is underdog in this match. Can't belive it, better player, bigger talent, better ranked and when the tournament was called ATP Chennai Benoit reached semis three times and quarter once and only lost once in second round to Dudi Sela in 2012 at his first Chennai attempt and that was also before he reached top 50 and became a steady top 50 player. Marton has beaten Nico Kicker in straight sets, a player who just isn't good enough on hardcourts and now he suddenly becomes favourite to win this. Totally ridiculous! Benoit wins this 9 out of 10 times and he also beat Marton 7-5 6-3 in a challenger event last season on clay and I just can't see why he wouldn't be able to win again.
ATP Brisbane
Alex de Minaur to beat Milos Raonic at 4.40 with Unibet
Milos better have his previously injured wrist ready for this because he comes up against a big talent here who is confident after that win against Steve Johnson and maybe because he qualified to aussie open after winning the AO wild card challenge before christmas. Milos can ofcourse win easily if he serves up to his standards but value lies with the aussie 18 year old youngster.

Brayden Schnur to beat Oscar Otte at 2.00 with bet365
Don't see any reason to have the canadian as even a small underdog here. He could win again, Brayden is quite underrated and he hasn't reached his full potential and he had a good last season by his standards as he reached a lot of challenger quarterfinals and seems to have been working well in the off season to just keep going on the same track as in 2017. Oscar is also at his best on clay judging by his results from last season where he reached a lot of challenger clay quarterfinals and even won one and lost a final to Janko Tipsarevic. Brayden does his best on hardcourt as most canadians.

ATP Brisbane
Alexandr Dolgopolov to beat (-3.5) Horacio Zeballos at 1.80 with bet365
I think Horacio did well by his standards last season but he dropped significantly in form somewhere after US open or right before. Don't remember really where his form went down but his last months in the season was quite bad. He does play best on clay also and coming up against a fit Alexandr on the Brisbane surface will prove very tough for him. I don't think Horacio will have any chance at all here. It's big class difference between them and talentwise Alexandr is way out of his league so Alexandr should cover this in about 7 of 10 times on hard.

Then I guess I'll have to look for another bet. Didn't know he had withdrawn till I read this...
... but I'm going for Ryan anyway
Ryan Harrison to beat (-1.5 sets) Yannick Hanfmann at 2.00 with bet365
Even if he's a lucky loser now I can't imagine he'll have mutch to show for here so Ryan in 2 should work.
Edit: Just saw the odds are at 2.25 with Paddypower
Problem is that most bookies are most of the times higher then bet365 on setbetting.

Murray has now withdrawn by the looks of things. Fett failed to break in the second game (3BBs) and fell apart, let's see if Struff can deliver. He's got the skills and Berdych is beatable, only worried about his head really. Not yet sure what to go for tomorrow, lots of temptations, but I always seem to do poorly before the Australian Open for some reason, so I don't want to repeat past mistakes.

Okay, let's go for one value pick.
Vincent Millot to beat Cameron Norrie at 3.25 with Unibet
I had a hunch about Norrie losing yesterday, but I didn't go for it in the end - and, well, it seems that I did indeed dodge a cruel bullet there, as Norrie saved X match points against Napolitano. Millot isn't weaker than the Italian and he certainly has enough to win this, so I'm willing to take my chances at odds this big. Apart from the previous matches, there are two other factors that are pushing me to the bet. 1) I think that Norrie is incredibly overrated at the moment. 2) Millot has always been a decent underdog to back + he won this tournament in 2011, so he shouldn't have any motivation problems even if he goes a break down or something.

Challenger Noumea/Playford
Brayden Schnur to beat Yoshihito Nishioka at 2.75 with bet365
I doubt Yoshi will come strong here so fast after a long injury break. He'll have problems with timing on the groundstrokes but I'm sure he's motivated to come back strong but I'll take my chances that it won't happen in the first match.
Christian Harrison to beat Stephane Robert at 2.50 with bet365
I like the younger Harrison but he's not at his older brothers level and question is if he'll ever be but he might have just about enough to beat an aging frenchman.
ATP Brisbane
Ryan Harrison to beat Andy Murray at 2.68 with Pinnaclesports
So Andy is in Brisbane to test his hip and not to win his first match. As simple as that. You need to be fully fit to beat a player like Ryan. Andy didn't look fully fit in Abu Dhabi and that should show here. Ryan would be higher priced if Andy had been fit enough to win. Going with Pinnacle in case of a Andy retirement after first set since Pinnacle doesn't void bets after one set is played.

Challenger Noumea/Playford
Brayden Schnur to beat Yoshihito Nishioka at 2.75 with bet365
I doubt Yoshi will come strong here so fast after a long injury break. He'll have problems with timing on the groundstrokes but I'm sure he's motivated to come back strong but I'll take my chances that it won't happen in the first match.
Christian Harrison to beat Stephane Robert at 2.50 with bet365
I like the younger Harrison but he's not at his older brothers level and question is if he'll ever be but he might have just about enough to beat an aging frenchman.
ATP Brisbane
Ryan Harrison to beat Andy Murray at 2.68 with Pinnaclesports
So Andy is in Brisbane to test his hip and not to win his first match. As simple as that. You need to be fully fit to beat a player like Ryan. Andy didn't look fully fit in Abu Dhabi and that should show here. Ryan would be higher priced if Andy had been fit enough to win. Going with Pinnacle in case of a Andy retirement after first set since Pinnacle doesn't void bets after one set is played.

2 picks from ATP Brisbane
Leonardo Mayer to beat Ryan Harrison at 2.20 with bet365
Kicking of the new season with my first bet being this. Leo has beaten Ryan at two occasions already on clay in 3 sets and Ryans return is not the best while he lacks in stability sometimes on his ground strokes. Leo will make it very hard for Ryan again because even if this is on hard it's always difficult to beat someone you've had problems with before. Forwise it's nothing speaking in either players favor if we go back to end of last season. Leo could be a good start on 2017 so I'll see where he takes me.
Matthew Ebden to beat Frances Tiafoe at 2.50 with bet365
And why wait for my second bet. Might as well take this on. No reason to have Matt as a 2.50 underdog imo. But the bookie must think Frances is more talented and therefore should be the rightful favourite because in the ranking it's only 3 spots between them. Matt had a good 2017 while I don't think Frances did and he lost a match like this in Brisbane last year being 1.50 fav in the qualies (lost to Alex de Minaur in 3). This could be a coinflip match and then I'm happy to be on the aussie underdog who will be motivated to do well in Brisbane while Frances has no points to defend and might therefore not be as motivated.
Happy new year!

2 picks from ATP Brisbane
Leonardo Mayer to beat Ryan Harrison at 2.20 with bet365
Kicking of the new season with my first bet being this. Leo has beaten Ryan at two occasions already on clay in 3 sets and Ryans return is not the best while he lacks in stability sometimes on his ground strokes. Leo will make it very hard for Ryan again because even if this is on hard it's always difficult to beat someone you've had problems with before. Forwise it's nothing speaking in either players favor if we go back to end of last season. Leo could be a good start on 2017 so I'll see where he takes me.
Matthew Ebden to beat Frances Tiafoe at 2.50 with bet365
And why wait for my second bet. Might as well take this on. No reason to have Matt as a 2.50 underdog imo. But the bookie must think Frances is more talented and therefore should be the rightful favourite because in the ranking it's only 3 spots between them. Matt had a good 2017 while I don't think Frances did and he lost a match like this in Brisbane last year being 1.50 fav in the qualies (lost to Alex de Minaur in 3). This could be a coinflip match and then I'm happy to be on the aussie underdog who will be motivated to do well in Brisbane while Frances has no points to defend and might therefore not be as motivated.
Happy new year!

It's in Pune now, not Chennai.

1 PICK FOR ATP CHENNAI INDIA:

BHAMBRI-4.5 GAMES OVER KADHE @ 1.43 pinnacle
First week of the 2018. A lot of players with motivation problems but playing at home Bhambri should be OK. Playing a local wild card who has no results on the ATP tour level.
 

Top Ranked Player (WTA season 2018) as of 5 november 2018 with Unibet
Only the listed players are taken into consideration
Barty, Ashleigh 2.88
Radwanska, Agnieszka 3.00
Cibulkova, Dominika 3.75
Stephens, Sloane 6.00
Considering that Sloane beats Ashleigh any day of the week as she did in US open last season makes me think 
she could be able to be higher ranked when season ends despite the fact that she defends a grand slam title. The reason for her bigger price is mostly because she defends a lot of points before US open and the 2000 points from her US open title. Other then that she has a lot of points to gain everywhere. Aga and Dominika I won't even take into consideration in this bet since they are both sliding down and I don't expect anything big from either of them in 2018 and their odds is not exactly attractive either. Got to try Sloane here. Ashleigh defends points here and there but none in Wimbledon since she went out in first round last season. The player with the best grand slam result will probably finish highest of these four and at 6.00 Sloane is worth a try. Crossing my fingers for Sloane not to start the new season in such bad form that she had at the end of last season.

Yibing Wu - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 200.5 at 1.87 with Unibet
I'll probably have a couple more until the season starts, starting with Yibing Wu, the man who should be the future of Chinese tennis. He's incredibly talented, he's got the support of the strong Chinese federation, and he'll have plenty of Challengers to play in at the very least, so I can see him breaking this barrier in 2018. He finished 2017 just outside the top 300 despite playing for only a couple of months, so there's that.
Donna Vekic - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 61.5 at 1.88 with Unibet
Vekic is talented, there can be no doubts about that - the only question is whether she's going to focus on tennis or on Wawrinka/other things. To me, it seems that it might be the former, as she's hired Torben Beltz in the off-season. Beltz was the guy that helped Kerber rise to fame and I doubt that he would want to spend his time with someone unambitious. And yeah, getting under the 61.5 line could be a question of just one or two big tournaments (Vekic is 54 currently).

Xin Gao to beat Kim Cheong-Eui at 3.25 with bet365
The korean Kim seems to be on a roll winning all his three matches in straight sets with two bagels and dropping only 9 games in the process but I won't let that fool me so I pick the chinese player Xin to win this. He beat Kim earlier in 2017 in Chengdu challenger in straight sets so he can do it again.
 

ITF Turkey F48
Oleg Khotkov to beat Olexiy Kolisnyk at 2.50 with bet365
No reason to have Oleg as the underdog here except the ranking difference of 162 places. I would have Oleg at max 2.10. Oleg leads the head-to-head 3-1 and he's the older player. It took 4 tries before Olexiy could beat Oleg so it seems as these two ukrainean players are more even then the odds suggest.

Ajla Tomljanovic - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 83.5 at 1.88 with Unibet
If Ajla stays healthy she should make it back to top 100 again and finish somewhere around top 80. She's already been year end top 80 for three straight years before her injury. She withdrew after losing first set last saturday in the ITF Dubai final but let's hope it's only some minor issue. She's ranked 118 now and that she should improve on with another injury free season with not many WTA points to defend as she mostly played ITF tournaments in 2017. She's got the talent and she's proud of how far she's come with her game mentally.
Ajla about her groin injury in Dubai: http://sport360.com/video/tennis/258930/ajla-tomljanovic-gives-classy-speech-after-retiring-from-habtoor-final-against-belinda-bencic-in-dubai
Late in the video she says "I think I've put up a pretty good base for next year" and about that I got to agree with her.

Unibet have already put the ATP Sydney winner odds up. Philipp Kohlschreiber is my call to win this tournament but I'm only putting up my thoughts for the season bets so no Sydney bets will be placed until january.
My reason to belive in Philipp is the other potentially dangerous participants being Damir Dzumhur, Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori, Feli Lopez, Adrian Mannarino, Gilles Muller, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nando Verdasco, Benoit Paire, Albert Ramos-Viñolas.
Kei will likely be to rusty to get back from injury and win the first tournament after injury. Nando is always a question mark nowadays and I can't put him as winner in a final. Adrian always failed so far if he reached a final. Fabio gets beaten by Philipp every day of the week on any surface (had him as straight sets winner last time they met on clay when Philipp went on to win Kitzbühel) and Fabio always start the seasons slow like a snail. Gilles form hasn't been good enough since he reached Wimby quarters. Alexandr never in my life, the guy is such a mentally unstable player. Benoit also never in my life with his mentality. Albert had no form late 2017 and can't be put ahead of Philipp on hard. Damir will likely have a tougher season ahead of him with protecting his ranking after his recent two titles and I don't think he beats Philipp if they go head to head (they have met once in Sofia 2016 and Philipp won 2-1). Feli can go and win another title in Sydney but he is more likely to lose before the final if he plays like he's done last 6 months and grass is by far his best surface.
Edit: It will be Keis second tournament back from injury since he will compete in Brisbane the week before. And there are other names in the Sydney field that I left out which Philipp can face. It's Diego Schwartzman who Philipp met once in Vienna 2017 and he won in straight sets. Leo Mayer who is 3-0 v Philipp winning all three times on clay in straight sets so I hope he wont face him but Leos form wasn't so good after Hamburg so I'm not to worried about him unless they face early in Sydney. Then there's Jan-Lennard Struff who Philipp is up 3-1 against so he should take him out again if necessary. More possible threats is Jared Donaldson and Mischa Zverev. Philipp has lost his only match against Mischa in Rotterdam 2008 and Jared he hasn't met. Last possible threat would be Paolo Lorenzi who is 0-3 v Philipp without taking a set.

ITF ladies Dubai
Belinda Bencic to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu at 1.66 with bet365
I know it's not the best of prices but I think Belinda should exact some revenge here over Mihaela who won their first encounter in Linz in october. Buzarnescu seems to be a dangerous opponent so Belinda will have to be on her guard here. She should be more prepared this time for the romanian.

Belinda Bencic - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 28.5 at 1.88 with Unibet
If she stays at least somewhat healthy, Bencic should be top 20 at the end of the season imo. She's hungry, she's talented, and she's already gaining ranking points as we speak, so the only thing that can possibly stop her is another lengthy injury break. The WTA isn't as competitive as the ATP and you don't really even need to win any big events to finish at the top, so there's that. Bencic has enough to get at least one good GS run - and that could be enough for this bet to almost come in.
Mikael Ymer - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 270.5 at 1.87 with Unibet
Betting on youngsters can be quite risky for obvious reasons, but this line is fairly high and I think that Ymer is bound to get a breakthrough sooner rather than later. Everyone knows Elias Ymer, but I think that Mikael might actually be even more talented, plus he has the drive in wanting to be better than his brother. I'd have the line at 200 honestly, even though he can finish out of the top 500 if he's unlucky enough not to qualify for anything.

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 90.5 at 1.87 with Unibet
Cedrik-Marcel is a tricky class player who plays a lot on small margins which makes him so tricky to beat and he's good at that tricky gameplay. On his best days he can challenge top 10 opponents and those best days he showed a lot during 2017 on the challenger tour so I think he will just continue rising the same way as he did in 2017. He could easily be top 50 by the end of the season. Staying around 60-70 in ranking shouldn't be to hard for him as he doesn't defend any ATP points at all almost. He did good results on the challenger tour. Now with his experience he should be able to translate his challenger success to the ATP tour. If injuries doesn't stop him he'll be top 90 or better as of 26 November 2018.

Corentin Moutet - Singles ranking as of 26 November 2018 - Under 150.5 at 1.87 with Unibet
Moutet nearly broke this milestone in 2017 despite not playing in any ATP-level tournaments, so I think that he'll break it now that he's finished the season on a high. If he's at least half-successful making the switch, he'll break it without any issues I'd say, and the good news is that he should get some support from the French federation as well. He's already received a WC to the Australian Open and there should be more coming up throughout the year, so that should ease the pressure somewhat.
Naomi Osaka - Singles ranking as of 5 November 2018 - Under 47.5 at 1.88 with Unibet
Osaka had an awful season in 2017, but 2018 should be the time for a really good comeback I'd say. She's now working with Sascha Baijin, a guy that's helped many top players over the last few years, and she's working hard by the looks of things already, so I have big expectations for her in 2018. If she stays injury-free, she could break her career-best of 40.

Alright, first pre-season bet.
Lucas Pouille to beat Tomas Berdych at 2.00 with Unibet
Berdych had one good run in 2017, in the Wimbledon. Apart from that, his career has been going downhill - and I'm not sure what's going to change in 2018, since he doesn't seem to have the same spark as many of the other veterans. Pouille started 2017 poorly due to injury issues, but he's recovered by the end of the year, winning in Vienna and then helping France win the Davis Cup. I'd have him as the favourite in this match-up.

Good win for Tessah Fitrimo 7-6 6-1
And a win by Cindy Burger 2 sets to 1
Big loss for Katarzyna but this was the one I hade lower expectations on as it was only a small stake here.
 
My off season bets are coming in thick and fast so let's keep it going that way.