joeblitz
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread On the Central House incident, Loughran spent many nights in the pubs and clubs the night before he was due to ride and a lot of the time he could hardly stand up. That is why he lost the number one in Hughes's yard. I never rated him as a jockey and his ride on the first race at Gowran on Saturday illustrates the point of how poor a judge he is! He hasn't changed his habits much nor will he. Anyone who puts him up on a fancied horse needs his head examined.
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Re: what percentage of odds on favourites win horse races? And to back them it has to be to a level stake and you have to be very selective. So easy to get carried away. That's why most on the so called "odds-on merchants" don't last very long.
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4.00 Southwell Masterful Act 4/9 Paddy Power BOG Masterful Act is a course specialist who keeps on improving on this surface having beaten decent flat horses. Today he comes up against jumpers who are that bit slower and all being well he will win very easily. He is different gravy to these on this surface. 10 Points win Masterful Act 4/9 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: BBOTD 17th Feb 4.00 Southwell Masterful Act 4/9 Paddy Power BOG Masterful Act is a course specialist who keeps on improving on this surface having beaten decent flat horses. Today he comes up against jumpers who are that bit slower and all being well he will win very easily. He is different gravy to these on this surface. 1 Point win for nap purposes Masterful Act 4/9 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Sunday February 16th 3.45 Navan Foxrock 4/6 Bet365 BOG This is the certainty of the day and will win bar a fall and will go to Cheltenham with a live chance in the 4m National Hunt Chase. His form over fences is vastly superior to everything else and he loves heavy ground. The manner of his victory at Naas where he readily brushed aside and outstayed Sizing Gold suggests he will have no trouble here. 10 Points win Foxrock 4/6 Bet365 BOG 2.40 Navan Daneking Evs Bet365 BOG Daneking has been consistant since being launched over hurdles and his 2nd to Waxies Dargle lto at Fairyhouse makes him the one to beat here. 10 Points win Daneking Evs Bet365 BOG 3.10 Navan Mallowney 13/8 Coral BOG Bright New Dawn is disappointing whereas Mallowney is promising. He fell lto at Leopardstown when travelling well and prior to that was very impressive in this ground at Naas. Expect him to make amends here. 10 Points win Mallowney 13/8 Coral BOG 4.50 Navan Vivega 8/11 Bet365 BOG Vivega is a full brother to Quevega and while it usually doesn't follow that all siblings are equally as good I'm sticking with the hype here. 10 Points win Vivega 8/11 Bet365 BOG
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Re: BBOTD > Sunday February 16th 3.45 Navan Foxrock 4/6 Bet365 BOG This is the certainty of the day and will win bar a fall and will go to Cheltenham with a live chance in the 4m National Hunt Chase. His form over fences is vastly superior to everything else and he loves heavy ground. The manner of his victory at Naas where he readily brushed aside and outstayed Sizing Gold suggests he will have no trouble here. 1 Point win for nap purposes Foxrock 4/6 Bet365 BOG
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 15th 3.35 Wincanton Zarkandar 7/4 SkyBet BOG A 2 horse race in which the bookmakers have overestimated one of them and massively underestimated another. Melodic Rendezvous loves heavy ground and has won around here, however in my opinion he has to go some way to match the form of Zarkandar who is 2/2 here and has also won on heavy. Winner of this and the international last year at Cheltenham, he finished 4th in the Champion. His defeats this year have been to Annie Power (twice) and The New One. Melodic Rendezvous would not have done any better against those 2. So based on what they have both achieved, the Nicholls beast should be favourite and will win! 10 Points win Zarkandar 7/4 SkyBet BOG 1.30 Ascot Un Temps Pour Tout 11/10 Boylesports BOG Pipe always has a few winners this weekend every year and I expect Un Temps Pour Tour to improve massively for his first run in the UK where he finished 2nd to Zamdy Man at Haydock when favourite. The others are useful but this horse should have too many guns for them here especially after his good run against Ptit Zig in France. In addition Pipe's horses were not really firing when he was beaten at Haydock. Again with Cheltenham on the horizon, expect him to be spot on here. 10 Points win Un Temps Pour Tout 11/10 Boylesports BOG 2.05 Ascot Gevrey Chambertin 5/2 Bet365 BOG Quite a race here with several promising chasers on display. Gevrey Chambertin makes his debut over fences here and will have to win to merit going to Cheltenham. He has the size and scope to make a chaser and has won over the fixed brush hurdles at Haydock, loves the ground and Pipe does well at this meeting. 10 Points win Gevrey Chambertin 5/2 Bet365 BOG Would also be mega interested in No Dice in the bumper at Ascot but with no prices available I will decide nearer the race! Bog Warrior for me in the 2.25 Gowran but as he is fto and with the trainer not to be trusted I am having no bet. 4.10 Gowran Florishwells Dete SP I don't know how good or bad she is but the opposition is poor and having had the pace to win over 11f on the flat in france should win this if she can jump at all. 10 Points win Florishwells Dete SP
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday February 15th 3.35 Wincanton Zarkandar 7/4 SkyBet BOG A 2 horse race in which the bookmakers have overestimated one of them and massively underestimated another. Melodic Rendezvous loves heavy ground and has won around here, however in my opinion he has to go some way to match the form of Zarkandar who is 2/2 here and has also won on heavy. Winner of this and the international last year at Cheltenham, he finished 4th in the Champion. His defeats this year have been to Annie Power (twice) and The New One. Melodic Rendezvous would not have done any better against those 2. So based on what they have both achieved, the Nicholls beast should be favourite and will win! 1 Point win for nap purposes Zarkandar 7/4 SkyBet BOG Should Wincanton be abandoned I would like my nap to be Un Temps Pour Tour 11/10 Boylesports BOG I have outlined the reasons why he will win on the National Hunt racing section for tomorrow
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 13th Nice winners lads - well done:clap:clap:clap:clap
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3.20 Fakenham Doctor Harper 8/13 Paddy Power BOG I'm with Corky on this one but was surprised by his very poor showing at Cheltenham lto behind Ballyalton. But for that he would be a 1/4 shot here and with Cheltenham on the horizon, against this mediocre bunch losing is not an option given his vastly superior form. 10 Points win Doctor Harper 8/13 Paddy Power BOG 1.15 Fakenham Slaney Star 2/1 BetVictor BOG Not really a fan of sellers but when you see McCoy riding a horse for Best who is coming off a layoff with dreadful form you have to sit up and take note especially as this combination is so powerful. 3rd in a bumper here on good ground last June was his best run so far and his profile is so alike so many of the Best horses who tend to go on and chalk up a sequence ie no form and dropped into a seller in which many of them would struggle to beat me. This is his chance and I would be very surprised if he didn't leave his previous form well behind him tomorrow and not just win but win easily! 10 Points win Slaney Star 2/1 BetVictor BOG
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Re: BBOTD > Friday February 14th 3.20 Fakenham Doctor Harper 8/13 Paddy Power BOG I'm with Corky on this one but was surprised by his very poor showing at Cheltenham lto behind Ballyalton. But for that he would be a 1/4 shot here and with Cheltenham on the horizon, against this mediocre bunch losing is not an option given his vastly superior form. 1 Point win for nap purposes Doctor Harper 8/13 Paddy Power BOG
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3.25 Kelso Duke Of Navan 7/2 Coral BOG Duke Of Navan won this last year from Any Given Day and 3 runs here have yielded 2 wins and a 2nd (fto in a bumper). Highly tried this season when running twice against My Tent Or Yours including 4th lto out Kempton, he now has his sights considerably lowered and should be good enough to take advantage against some in and out performers and one improver, Special Catch. 10 Points win Duke Of Navan 7/2 Coral BOG
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 13th 3.25 Kelso Duke Of Navan 7/2 Coral BOG Duke Of Navan won this last year from Any Given Day and 3 runs here have yielded 2 wins and a 2nd (fto in a bumper). Highly tried this season when running twice against My Tent Or Yours including 4th lto out Kempton, he now has his sights considerably lowered and should be good enough to take advantage against some in and out performers and one improver, Special Catch. 1 Point win for nap purposes Duke Of Navan 7/2 Coral BOG
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Re: Help - Enthusiasm needed Winning helps though Graham! I am looking forward to Cheltenham too and then Punchestown (usually easier to pick winners)
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Re: Help - Enthusiasm needed Maybe you are losing or just need a break? I take January off every year as in the past I have found it to be a month for the bookies. It works as every year I come back with ammo and form in my head. February if you are selective offers as you know many trials and reading through the lines certain horses have to win to merit going to Cheltenham. Some do not but enough do to yield a profit! In relation to your situation, I'd say you need a break - just to forget it for a while? However long that break is depends on you? But usually after a break, you look forward to it even more. And a break means doing everything but backing horses! Good Luck
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Wednesday February 12th 4.00 Clonmel Aupcharlie 15/8 Paddy Power BOG Turban won well at Fairyhouse lto but wins very seldomly. Aupcharlie has his quirks but is in a different league to these. 3rd to Cheltenian in the Cheltenham bumper a couple of years ago, he was beaten a head by Back In Focus in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, 0,5l by Tofino Bay in a grade 2 at Naas last January and would have won last April at Punchestown but for falling at the last. Is making his seasonal debut tomorrow (now with de Bromhead) but won fto last season and the stable is in good form. This is his race to lose and I don't fear anything in the race. 10 Points win Aupcharlie 15/8 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 12th February 4.00 Clonmel Aupcharlie 15/8 Paddy Power BOG Turban won well at Fairyhouse lto but wins very seldomly. Aupcharlie has his quirks but is in a different league to these. 3rd to Cheltenian in the Cheltenham bumper a couple of years ago, he was beaten a head by Back In Focus in the Topaz Novice Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, 0,5l by Tofino Bay in a grade 2 at Naas last January and would have won last April at Punchestown but for falling at the last. Is making his seasonal debut tomorrow (now with de Bromhead) but won fto last season and the stable is in good form. This is his race to lose and I don't fear anything in the race. 1 Point win for nap purposes Aupcharlie 15/8 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Monday February 10th 1.50 Catterick I Need Gold 4/9 BetVictor BOG While you won't get rich backing him, I Need Gold looks a penalty kick here have dotted up on New Years Day here where he jumped well and made all. The opposition here is poor and weaker than the field he beat the last day. Those looking for more value on him might like to try the overs on the distance betting but for that you depend on the jockey and I will just stick with the win. I can only try to pick the winners and have no control over the sp. 10 points win I Need Gold 4/9 BetVictor BOG
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Re: BBOTD > Monday February 10th 1.50 Catterick I Need Gold 4/9 BetVictor BOG While you won't get rich backing him, I Need Gold looks a penalty kick here have dotted up on New Years Day here where he jumped well and made all. The opposition here is poor and weaker than the field he beat the last day. Those looking for more value on him might like to try the overs on the distance betting but for that you depend on the jockey and I will just stick with the win. 1 point win for nap purposes I Need Gold 4/9 BetVictor BOG
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Re: National Hunt Racing Sunday 9th February + 53.96 for the month is ok at this stage! Well done to those who tipped Last Installment. He was a serious horse a few years ago a revels in the mud. I passed him over to my cost and foolishly listened to Fenton saying that he wasn't fully would up!
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 8th Well done Beaker!
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Re: Best Bet of the Day KO Cup 2nd Round - Deadline Sat 2pm Best of Luck lads!
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Don't think I'll be around on Sunday so here goes... 2.15 Leopardstown Vautour 7/4 Stan James BOG The Tullow Tank has done nothing wrong winning all 3 over hurdles this season beating a Mullins horse every time. Lto he accounted for Moyle Park. Vautour oozed class fto at Navan before scrambling home at Punchestown against Westerner Boy. I will be amazed if he doesnt put that last run behind him and prove himself to be the best in the novice hurdler division. In my opinion he should be odds on here. 10 Points win Vautour 7/4 Stan James BOG
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1.15 Leopardstown Ivan Grozny Evs Boylesports BOG Ivan Grozny was caught on the line here by Plinth at Christmas but made amends in no uncertain terms a couple of weeks ago by bolting up at Naas. I expect him to reverse the form here. 10 Points win Ivan Grozny Evs Boylesports BOG 2.15 Leopardstown Vautour 7/4 Stan James BOG The Tullow Tank has done nothing wrong winning all 3 over hurdles this season beating a Mullins horse every time. Lto he accounted for Moyle Park. Vautour oozed class fto at Navan before scrambling home at Punchestown against Westerner Boy. I will be amazed if he doesnt put that last run behind him and prove himself to be the best in the novice hurdler division. In my opinion he should be odds on here. 10 Points win Vautour 7/4 Stan James BOG 3.50 Leopardstown Tidal Bay 3/1 Bet365 BOG Tidal Bay won the Lexus here last year having run second in the Hennessy. Ran very well in the Welsh National lto under a welter burden and a trip which didnt suit. I expect him to win this as First Lieutenant rarely wins, Last Installment is not fully fit and Lord Windermere has disappointed this season although I expect him to be second. To his credit Tidal Bay like Leopardstown and knows how to win, as does his trainer who does well with his chasers at Leopardstown. 10 Points win Tidal Bay 3/1 Bet365 BOG 4.20 Leopardstown Tammys Hill 5/1 Boylesports BOG Tammys Hill was beaten a neck in this last year by Salsify but improved throughout the season. Far too much has been read into his defeat at Down Royal by On The Fringe as he was not fully would up that day. At the price he is a free eachway bet anyway. On The Fringe never runs 2 races alike and cannot be trusted but there are other ex chasers in here to make it interesting, however Tammys Hill is still only 9, loves the ground and is proven in this sphere. 5 Points e/w Tammys Hill 5/1 Boylesports BOG 2.45 Leopardstown Ballycasey 13/8 BetVictor BOG Don Cossack looks a stayer and took ages to get past Carlingford Lough at Fairyhouse in early December in the Drinmore. Carlingford Lough won well here at the festival beating Morning Assembly. However it was hard not to be impressed by Ballycasey on his only run over fences so far. Running over a very inadequate 2m1f at Navan, he never touched a twig and traveled easily though the race before quickening clear to beat Mount Colah by 8lengths. If he jumps as well here, he will win. 10 Points win Ballycasey 13/8 BetVictor BOG
BBOTD > Tuesday February 18th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday February 18th 3.55 Wetherby Fine Rightly Evs Stan James BOG Fine Rightly was runner up to Layla Joan lto at Ayr having previously scored a bloodless victory there. He also pushed Royal Caviar (a very well regarded Mullins horse) close at Navan before getting the race on appeal. Layla Joan is a very good mare and it was no disgrace to finish second there. He meets nothing of that calibre here. Templebraden won a poor race at Southwell where it was the only one that handled the ground. 1 Point win for nap purposes Fine Rightly Evs Stan James BOG