joeblitz
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Posts posted by joeblitz
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Re: Flat racing - Tues 28th May 5.00 Leicester Big Thunder @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG No form for this one whatsoever but is raised in trip and trained by the handicap king Mark Prescott who had a winner yesterday. This one is now upped in trip, though it remains to be seen what his optimum will be. Sure to win races. Todays suggestion is pure speculation based on how Prescott operates with his horses. 1/10
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Re: Jump racing - Tues 28th May 7.00 Ballinrobe Rebel Fitz @ 8/11 Generally A disappointing second in a better race in Killarney lto. Outclasses this lot by a mile on his hurdle form and can jump. Sure to come on for his last run and will either win or fall. 10/10 7.30 Ballinrobe Muzak @ 7/2 Generally A good second lto and in good form. Runs well at the west of Ireland tracks and has won around here before. Proven course form is vital and he is guaranteed to run his race have won and run well here in the past. 3/10.
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Re: Flat Racing > Sunday 26th May Well if my judgement about Camelot is that far off, the best thing I can do is quit!!
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Re: Flat Racing > Sunday 26th May 1.45 Curragh Sir John Hawkins @ 6/5 Bet365 A race full of newcomers in what promises to be a good maiden. Sir John Hawkins is bred in the purple and will need much further in time. The others may be good but will need to be today. Stable in form. Given that it is fto the recommended stake is 9/10 with high confidence. 2.45 Curragh Leading Light @ 10/11 Generally A terrible field for the Gallinules with Leading Light looking very progressive and the others not so. O' Brien farms this race and will win it again. Maximum confidence here 10/10. 3.20 Curragh - See BOTD 10/10 3.55 Curragh Big Break @ 6/1 Generally 5 fillies to concentrate on here. Just The Judge was 2nd in the English equivalent and the newmarket runner up has a good record in the curragh. However this filly strikes me more of a sprinter and was outstayed close home. The curragh mile is more demanding and I think she will struggle. Snow Queen ran well in the Guineas to finish 5th and will improve greatly. If the other 2 Irish fillies underperform she may win. Maureen looked good in the trial but then was well beaten in the guineas. Could bounce back. Viztoria is greatly respected as she beat the 4yos lto and did it well. I fancy this one strongly on that basis. However Big Break was a very smart 2yo and wasn't ready in time for the english version. Connections are confident and even with Weld's bad record in the curragh I cannot ignore the form or the talk. Was favourite last year to break Magician at Leop. There are other dangers so on that basis 2/10. 4.30 Curragh Via Ballycroy @ 11/1 BetVictor Just a small fancy in a open handicap. Very well drawn and consistent last year. Halford in form and has a great record in sprints at the curragh 0.5/10 ew. 5.35 Curragh Lake Nova @11/4 Bet365 A poor maiden by curragh standards. This won ran second to a well regarded newcomer of Weld at Naas lto. Stable in form and with a great record in curragh maidens has to be the selection. Manalapan might be second. This is a maximum bet for me 10/10 Good Luck!
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3.20 Curragh Camelot @ 1/3 Generally. Ok. So this is all about winners and profit. This race is simple to analyse. Windsor Palace and Negotiate would need to be starting around now to have a chance. Al Kazeem won a maiden, a handicap and a group 3. Lto he was runner up in a group 2 so he has some hope. Unfortunately it lies somewhere between Bob and none. Camelot is a proven group 1 performer denied the triple crown last year by the steroids applied to the godolphin horse and came back as well as ever at the last curragh meeting on groud he hates and only 60% fit to win. He will strip fitter tomorrow and will take this in his stride before going on to Ascot. The only danger is he might break his leg. Although I don't like odds on shots, in group one races the form is usually so solid. In my opinion 1/3 is a great price about a horse who should be 1/10!
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Re: BBOTD - Saturday 25th May 2.15 Curragh: Coach House @1/1 Paddy Power 10/10 Inexperience beat him first time out at the curragh but made no mistake next time by bolting up at tipperary beating a subsequent winner of Bolgers who is Ascot bound by 6.5lengths easily. Stubbs also has potential as has the bolger horse but my selection is the choice of the stable jockey and will win tomorrow enroute to Ascot. The horse of Deegans who beat him fto also reopposes but I am confident that the selection will deliver. 3.20 Curragh: Magician @5/2 Boylesports 5/10 On his 2yo form Van Der Neer wins this. He ran well in the English equivalent staying on to finish 3rd to Dawn Approach. He will stay further than the mile in time and I rate him as a danger. What puts me off is that Hughes was never going to ride him in the Guineas. His form on the track is the best by some way however. So why Magician? Well he won a very good maiden in the curragh over a mile eased down last year albeit on heavy ground and looked good and was well backed to do so when bolting up at chester over 10 furlongs. O' Brien has a fantastic record in this race and I hear that this horse has been beating Cristoforo Columbo at home who had better 2yo form and who was not far behind the Hannon horse in the Guineas. Taking everything into consideration Magician has to be the pick. I don't rate the other horses as good enough. Murtagh's horse is the only other one with potential. 3:55 Curragh: Was @ 9/2 BetVictor 4/1 generally 3/10 This concerns Camponata, Was and Chigun. I rule out Camponata due to the ground and the stable's dreadful record in the Curragh. Chigun has won in this grade, will love the trip and is improving. If my selection does not run up to par, expect this filly to capitalise. Was won the Oaks last year and although her best trip is probably 10 furlongs I expect her to be equally effective here over the mile. For the first time in a year she has her ground and last year competed at the highest level in every race. Back down in grade today I expect her class to win out. Nap Coach House. If you must have a bet in the other 2 races go for my ones!
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Re: Godolphin doping scandal Should have been banned for life. He has brought racing into disrepute and cost me a small fortune (Camelot St Leger). And on another note.... I gave up going racing the last year Fallon rode for O'Brien. It was the year that he faced a lengthly ban for cocaine in France and the taped interview he gave to a reporter regarding one of his mounts. Anyway, he stopped more horses that year riding for O' Brien that I had to stop. He too should have been banned for life IMO. Things have settled again now but I'll never be a fan!!
3 Horseracing Thoughts Per Day
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: 3 Horseracing Thoughts Per Day I would say class, trainer in form, cd winners, ground, jockey in that order. There is another important factor called trainer habit which rarely changes and it is mega. Let the small trainers have their 5 winners a year and concentrate on the biggeer yards where possible. The stats will tell you that these yards every year train the most winners and stats dont lie. And remember, no need to bet every day. Sit and wait and then when you see a good bet, analyse and bet accordingly. It's all about winning and taking your chances when they arise. Fun bets are no fun as they are usually losers! And if you place emphasis on value make sure you define it properly. Once you have a staking plan and stick to it, value to me is just profit. If I think the horse will win, the price is secondary as I can't do much about it. Also, and this is just a personal thing, I never bet at Lingfield, Wolverhapton or Dundalk as I find that in the majority of cases it is down too much to luck and jockey position rather than the ability of the horse and this for me is not a level playing field. Heffernan a good jockey? He certainly is for the bookies! I would never back him on an O'Brien favourite. Have a look at his record. IMO he is extremely ordinary. He rode classic winners but in fairness, any half decent jockey would have won on those! Joseph O Brien will always ride for his father as long as he wants. Noone else will get a look in. Sure, Heffernan will be given a few opportunities but thats it. Why do you think Murtagh left? Best flat jockeys: Moore, Hughes, Fanning for Johnston, Murtagh, Smullen for Weld and because O'Briens horses are the best overall you have to take Joseph's mounts seriously. He has improved but will never be as good as the others. 9/10 times he won't need to be!