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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

joeblitz

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Posts posted by joeblitz

  1. Re: June 10 - June 16 Rule Britaniaa, I propably wrote too much but if you read it again I said Youzhny isn't a huge server and that's why Federer is usually able to mop him up but the way things are going this week for me he probably wont lol! Good luck with your bets today

  2. Re: June 10 - June 16 Federer -4.5 games to beat Youzhny 1/1 Paddy Power. Maybe I should be throwing caution to the wind at how well Youzhny has played this week but he has made no impression on Federer in the 9 matches they have played. Federer sometimes struggles with the return against the big servers but Youzhny isnt a huge server. Off the ground the Federer forehand will overpower him if it is on. Youzhny has a great backhand which he can drive or slice to open up the angles. From Youzhny's point of view he must serve a high percentage of first serves and of course attack the Federer backhand and keep the points short to have a chance. I think it is on that last point where he will falter and it is for that reason that I think Federer will post another comfortable win. 10 points win Federer -4.5 games Evs Paddy Power Murray vs Cilic - Total Cilic games - over 9.5 games Evs Paddy Power. To be quite frank the Queens Tounament this year has been a disaster for me. You don't know how wayward Murray will be as it is only a warm up tournament but one Murray would like to win. At his best Murray would win this match comfortably and I am sure he will win the match. He leads the head to heads comfortably. Cilic is a good server and Murray is a good server and returner. He has far more variety in his game and moves better. On ability alone assuming the mind does not wander he should win comfortably today but history at this tournament has shown that it does and for that reason I am taking Cilic to cover this line. Cilic to win over 9.5 games 5 points win Evs Paddy Power Vekic to beat Hantuchova 5/4 Coral Both players have played brilliantly this week and Hantuchova I am sure will be feeling the effects of 3 very long matches. This might be one match too far for her? Vekic has a good sure and goes for a lot of winners as Mladenovic does. This I think will throw Hantuchkova out of her comfort zone. Huntuchkova likes to go for some winners but likes to work the point and open up the angles. She may not be able to run down the shots of Vekic today. For her part Vekic needs to cut down on the unforced errors. As I think she will. Vekic to beat Hantuchova 10 points win 5/4 Coral Vekic to win 2-0 5 points win 3/1 William Hill

  3. Re: Flat Racing Sunday 16th June 3.45 Cork Maarek 4/7 Paddy Power BOG Maerek has raced and won in a higher grade than all of these and should win this easily enroute to a Royal Ascot trip next week. Cape of Approval has won 4 times including at this track can chase him home especially with the stable in better form now. With maximum confidence Maarek 10 points win 4/7 Paddy Power BOG

  4. Re: Flat Racing Sunday 16th June 2.20 Salisbury Continuum 9/4 Paddy Power I was very taken by this one first time out where it just got beaten due to greeness. Made no mistake over this trip at Haydock last time but still a bit green. This horse only made his debut as a 4 year old and with further improvement likely, I expect him to take this and improve again when he steps up to pattern company later on, rewarding his handlers for their patience. 5 points win Continuum 9/4 Paddy Power

  5. Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 15th June As predicted, it was tough today. I finished with 11.25 profit bringing me to +62.48 points which is ok. Better tomorrow. Congratulations to anybody who made money today and especially to Bathtime for Rupert who tipped up the first two winners at Sandown which in my opinion deserves a medal!

  6. Princess Highway 4.20 Cork Sunday 7/2 Paddy Power Princess Highway boasts the best form in the race having won a group 3 at Naas, the Ribblesdale Group 2 in Ascot and then finishing 3rd in the Irish Oaks Group 1. There was a valid excuse for her deafeat at Naas in a group 3 lto as she was in season. In addition the stable targets this race having won 3 of the last four renewals. None of the opposition have achieved anything remotely compared to her and there will be a lot of long faces if she gets beaten tomorrow. She should be 5/4! 7/2 is a welcome early christmas present. With maximum confidence 10 points win Princess Highway 7/2 Paddy Power

  7. Princess Highway 4.20 Cork Sunday 7/2 Paddy Power Princess Highway boasts the best form in the race having won a group 3 at Naas, the Ribblesdale Group 2 in Ascot and then finishing 3rd in the Irish Oaks Group 1. There was a valid excuse for her deafeat at Naas in a group 3 lto as she was in season. In addition the stable targets this race having won 3 of the last four renewals. None of the opposition have achieved anything remotely compared to her and there will be a lot of long faces if she gets beaten tomorrow. She should be 5/4! 1 point win for nap purposes Princess Highway 7/2 Paddy Power

  8. Re: June 10 - June 16 5 point Double Keothavong to beat Moore 4/5 and Tatishvilli to beat Koehler 8/15 Bet365 (works out at 7/4) Keothavong is playing her compatriot Moore in the fist qualifying round at Eastbourne. Moore did well last week in Birmingham losing in 3 sets to Mladenovic while Keothavong lost to Paszek. I expect experience to win out here because I feel Keothavong has the greater shots and determination to win this one. Tatishivilli still looking for her maiden win of the year lost 6-4 final set to Schiavone in Birmingham where she was striking the ball well. She has won a few matches on grass in the past and I expect her to win easily today. Koehler, coming from the clay has not played any match so far on grass and that should be the telling factor here

  9. Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 15th June Having read the form I came to the conclusion that the following ought to be backed 2.05 York Crackentop 2.5 Points e/w 6/1 Paddy Power BOG Out of form this year but the winner of this race last year and horses have a habit of coming right at the same time every year. 3.35 Musselburgh Bajan Tryst 2.5 points e/w 18/1 Coral The winner of this race last year and carrying less weight. Coming back after a layoff but wearing cheekpieces to sharpen him up today 7.55 Lingfield Italian Riviera 10 points win 13/8 Skybet Winner of 3 races last backend. Finished 3rd last month on his only start this year and that should have blown away the cobwebs. Stable is flying now so maximum confidence given that it has had a run already as many of the stable's horses have needed that first run. 6.15 Limerick One True Love 5 points win 4/6 Bet365 Ultra consistant and runner up to a group filly last Saturday in a maiden in Navan. Meets nothing of that calibre here and should make no mistake tonight. Good Luck

  10. Re: June 10 - June 16 Murray vs Tsonga a tiebreak in the match 5 points win 4/6 Ladbrokes They have played 3 times on grass with 2 tiebreaks and a 7-5 set. I think there will be another tomorrow. Hewitt to beat Cilic 5 points win 6/5 Bet365 Both had good wins today. Cilic will need to serve very well and Hewitt to return poorly for Cilic to win. Hewitt beat Cilic 6-4 7-5 on grass at the Olympics last year. Haas vs Federer Tie break in the match 5 points win 5/6 Skybet Federer leads the H2H 7-1, 3-1 on grass but Haas beat him here last year and he has gone up a level since then. Given their records against each other especially at Halle this looks the safest option given that all 3 of their matches here contained a tiebreak. 5 point win Accum Petkovic/Murray/Vekic/Gasquet 6.53 Paddy Power (8/13,2/5,Evs,4/9) Murray usually beats Tsonga and will do so again Petkovic has played well all week and beat Jankovic in straight sets today where Helep struggled against Safarova at times. At her best she is classier than Halep. Although both Youzhny and Gasquet are playing very well and the Head 2 Head is 4-4, recent matches point to a Gasquet victory with Gasquet winning 3 of the last 4. The loss was a retirement. Vekic even as a 16 year old has had a win on hardcourts against Rybarikova. Both hit the ball hard and have good serves but I have been more impressed by Vekic this week and think she will prevail this time. Good Luck!

  11. Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 15th June I am not too pleased about tomorrow's racing. There are some possibilities but it seems ultra competitive and the recent rain will make it difficult for punters. Sunday is a diiferent story but just one for tomorrow

    5.10 Musselburgh Size 2/1
    Bet365
    .
    Progressive 3yo trained by Fahey who won a maiden going away over 7f at this track. Steps up to a mile for what seems a weak enough race for his Handicap debut. Based on his last run this trip will suit even better and in addition the trainer has said he will be disappointed if he doesnt collect tomorrow.
    5.10 Musselburgh Size 2/1
    Bet365
    5 points win
    Good Luck!

  12. Re: BBOTD - Saturday 15th June 5.10 Musselburgh Size 2/1 Bet365. Progressive 3yo trained by Fahey who won a maiden going away over 7f at this track. Steps up to a mile for what seems a weak enough race for his Handicap debut. Based on his last run this trip will suit even better and in addition the trainer has said he will be disappointed if he doesnt collect tomorrow. 1 point win for nap purposes 5.10 Musselburgh Size 2/1 Bet365

  13. Re: Flat Racing - Friday 14th June An absolute disaster of a day with the profit showing 51.23 points. Everything I touched today turned to stone. It happens and the racing favours the bookies bigtime tomorrow but Sunday will be our day. Congratulations to anybody who made money today especially to those who tipped up Clowance Estate

  14. Re: June 10 - June 16 Some great picks again Fader though most of us got the Berdych result wrong. I thought he would win in 2 close sets tbh. As for Rybarikova today, she struck the ball extremely well off the ground yesterday and served and volleyed well. Flipkens self destructed in the first set tiebreak, but still.. I thought Keys might win today but not enough to back her. Her inexperience on grass (apart from this week) was enough to put me off. It was a major oversight on my part not to go with Hewitt, but there you go...

  15. 8.10 Aintree Any Given Day 6/5 Bet365. Any Given Day was better than and achieved more over hurdles than Sivola de Sivola. He jumped well on his only run over fences so far at Sedgefield and even with the penalty cannot be opposed under any circumstances whatsoever. With maximum confidence 10 points win Any Given Day 6/5 Bet365. 7.55 Clonmel Owega Star 5/2 Boylesports Owega Star and Il Fenomeno stand out here. Il Fenomeno has disappointed in 2 runs over fences and lto finished way behind Owega Star at Roscommon over 2m. In that Roscommon race I felt Owega Star received a poor ride and should have won. Should be sharper today and make no mistake. With maximum confidence 10 points win Owega Star 5/2 Boylesports

  16. Re: Flat Racing - Friday 14th June 6.25 Navan Candy Apples 13/8 Paddy Power This maiden concerns 2 horses. The O' Brien horse has run twice and was disappointing lto in a weak c/d maiden recently. On the other hand Candy Apples finished well to be second to Michaelmas (started 1/5) at the Curragh over 5f on Guineas weekend. Michaelmas is rated far superior to Wiltshire Boulavard so you would expect Candy Apples to gain the verdict here. It should be favourite in my opinion. In a 2 horse race you have to go for the maximum - 10 points win Candy Apples 13/8 Paddy Power

  17. Re: BBOTD - Friday 14th June 6.25 Navan Candy Apples 13/8 Paddy Power This maiden concerns 2 horses. The O' Brien horse has run twice and was disappointing lto in a weak c/d maiden recently. On the other hand Candy Apples finished well to be second to Michaelmas (started 1/5) at the Curragh over 5f on Guineas weekend. Michaelmas is rated far superior to Wiltshire Boulavard so you would expect Candy Apples to gain the verdict here. It should be favourite in my opinion. 1 point win Candy Apples for nap purposes 13/8 Paddy Power

  18. Re: June 10 - June 16 Kohlschreiber to beat Youzhny 2-0 5 points win 11/10 Coral. Although Youzhny seems to like playing in Germany and on grass so to does Kohlschreiber. Both are in form but the telling statistic is 7-1 to Kohlschreiber with Youzhny's only win coming after a first set retirement. There have been a few straight set results too and with the support of the crowd and the ability to get inside Youzhny's head I expect another one here for Kohlschreiber. I cannot decide on a value bet in the Hantuchova/Schiavone or Berdych/Cilic matches. I think the odds are about right. I was also tempted to back Halep to beat Safarova 2-0 at 6/4 but didn't. I just think she will be far too consistent for the Czech. Anyway, good luck everyone!

  19. Re: June 10 - June 16 Kudla +4.5 games vs Tsonga 5 points win 10/11 Ladbrokes. Kudla the 20 year old from the US has impressed this week winning his matches easily. Tsonga on the other had has struggled and complained of being tired and sore today. Kudla could easily cause an upset but even so this handicap looks a very safe bet unless he totally freezes. Murray vs Becker Total number of games under 20.5 5 points win Ladbrokes 5/6. Although Becker is playing well I don't feel that he will be able to stay with Murray on what I have seen this week. A break in both sets early on would seal it for Murray and I expect him to come through untroubled again. Interested in the Berdych/Cilic, Hantuchova/Schiavone, Kohlschreiber/Youzhny and Halep/Safarova matches - awaiting all the odds to see if there is any value

  20. Re: Flat Racing ~ Thursday 13th June A good day with Henry The Aviator, Bracelet and Arcaeus obliging and Reply disappointing. After 4 consequetive losers during the week it was a nice welcome to hit the target again. Profit since I started 25th May + 81.23 points which is fair enough! I feel that the Cecil filly who ran at Leopardston needs a straight 6f on fast groud to be seen at her best. She didn't see out the 7th furlong. Well done to everyone who tipped a winner today.

  21. Re: June 10 - June 16 A mixed day for me with Kudla doing the business and the under games line comfortably coming through in the Murray/Matosevic match. Petkovic did have too many guns for Beck (just) but unfortunately she lost the first set while Flipkens self destructed when 4-0 up in the first set tiebreak having had 5 setpoints on the previous Rybarikove service game. Still it is a small profit of 0.75 taking me up to a mere + 2.35 points for the week so far. Some terrific picks from the Fader and CzechPunter Haas 2-0 and Hewitt were good picks along with Schiavone who I thought had a chance of losing either of her first 2 matches. Also the overs in the Hantuchova match was good also. Tomorrow is another day so let's make the bookies pay!

  22. Re: June 10 - June 16 Murray vs Matosevic Total games under 19.5 10/11 Paddy Power. I think there is a gulf between these two and it depends on Murray tbh. Matosevic is here having beaten lucky loser Nielsen and a walk over. The arguments against the total games is that Murray played earlier today (almost a set) and that it is a warm up tournament for Wimbledon. However Murray looked like a man who wanted to win it during his defeat of Mahut. I would consider Mahut a far better grasscourt player than Matosevic with a better service, volley and all round attacking game. If Matosevic plays from the baseline he has very little chance of hurting Murray consistantly. Unfortunately for him he is a baseliner. I would be surprised if Murray doesn't break him at least 3 times in the match and that should cover the total games under line easily. The other thing for Murray is that I think he will want the match over quickly so that he is as fresh as he can be for his quarter final match. Total games under 19.5 5 points win 10/11 Paddy Power

  23. Re: June 10 - June 16 Finally a little bit of luck from yesterday's bets with Mahut winning over 8.5 games and winning in the handicap against Murray. That brings yesterday's losses to -3.5 points but still +1.6 points in front going into today. Murray wasn't as sharp as yesterday but still played extremely well against a dangerous opponent. Anyway I'm happy enough

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