joeblitz
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Posts posted by joeblitz
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Fortunately - money back - just! I'll have to put my early retirement on hold.
See how Willie Mullins feels!
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Makes perfect sense - thanks Aidy
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I wouldn't dismiss that totally although for the amount they might get on I would believe what she says.
It is the other beast I was hoping to find out about though. I am on with a run but the drift on betfair must have some foundation particularly as they have shorted up Arctic Fire, Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief. If anyone knows anything please post?
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"Ar Mad - lame. May have a fracture but not confirmed" - Hayley Moore ATR not that he would have any chance against Douvan anyway.
Has anyone heard the rumours about Faugheen? A major drift on betfair while the 3 in behind him shortened up. Just wondering if anyone heard anything?
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Thanks Graham,
Good to be back if just for a short time. Love the site and it is great place to debate and share opinions
You are right about Mullins being top trainer at Chetenham and he is a certainty. Unfortunately I don't have 100K to win 20 or even 50K to win 10 and even if I did those brave bookies would be likely to put a stop to my betting altogether! You are not allowed to win large sums off course regularly you know?
The other thing is that in betting odds on, you must be very selective, Most of the odds on merchants disappear quickly!
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Well Ruby Walsh will always ride the number one choice and if you read up on what Mullins says about Douvan and indeed Vautour last year, the reason they went chasing was because of Faugheen. That is how highly they rate him.
I agree that they should not have held up Nichols Canyon last year but as Walsh said after his defeat by Nichols Canyon, "I underestimated him. I won't be doing that again!".
Again I agree that Identity Thief looked as though he would beat Nichols Canyon last time but the Leopardstown hill, the ground and perhaps the greater stamina of Nichols Canyon won the day. When Gosden had Nichols Canyon, he showed a liking for soft. I think he is a brilliant horse but I think Faugheen is better. Time will tell?
And the other thing is that you can only beat the horses you run against. Mullins has said that the gallop against Nichols Canyon prior to Punchestown took it out of Faugheen and on the day he hung which was the sign of a tired horse. Good Luck with your bets but I hope Faugheen wins both on Sunday and in Cheltenham as I have very big bets on separately for both races! If he loses I will take it on the chin. For all the hard luck stories, I still have a few good ones to keep me going
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I agree with arsenalfh that both Identity Thief and Nichols Canyon have improved this season and opinions are what this game is about.
Nevertheless, for all his critics, Faugheen continues to win and win well (his first run excepted for reasons explained) and surely when he wins on Sunday that will be that?
If he doesn't they will be raging about having sent Douvan over fences as in any other stable it would be he and only he who would be the pretender to the CH crown. Cheltenham usually provides better ground in March and of the 3 horses mentioned NC, IT and Faugheen, who will that favour more? Neck on the block here - that has to be Faugheen!
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2 other horses I like:
Champion Bumper : Invitation Only - WP Mullins. Unraced as yet but the vibes are good 16-1 AP. Expect him to be favourite after he wins in a week or two.
Barters Hill in the Albert Bartlett. Little between him and Up For Review on form but Barters Hill might handle the ground a bit better and looks a better stayer in any case!
Ok guys, if these are any good to you?
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Hello everyone,
I've been very busy for the past 18 months or so and just a fleeting visit to give you my thoughts on Cheltenham.
Champion Hurdle:
Impossible for me to look beyond Faugheen. Slammed Nichols Canyon in a gallop at the Curragh prior to his defeat at Punchestown. That gallop took too much out of him as he was very unfit at the time. The Punchestown race was run at a crawl and the proximity of Wicklow Brave illustrates this. He was fitter at Kempton and won as expected. He runs at Leopardstown on Sunday where even though the ground will favour Nichols Canyon he should still win. I am surprised Nichols Canyon is running giving Mullins's post race comments after his Leopardstown Christmas victory over Identity Thief "he had a very hard race and will be given a long break".
Knock him if you like but he has won a CH and seems to be even better on better ground, a comment that does not apply to either Nichols Canyon or Identity Thief. Arctic Fire is not good enough and the UK challenge likewise. Either back him or stay out!
Arkle:
The reason Douvan is not in the CH is because of Faugheen. If allowed to run with Faugheen out he would win. Douvan jumps well, oozes class and only a fall or mishap can prevent him from winning. It really doesn't matter who takes him on in the race. It is his to lose. Either back him or stay out!
Supreme:
Min will win. Again, he oozes class and jumps well.Mullins has a line into all of the opposition. Tombstone is the danger if there is one but he may not prefer the faster ground at Cheltenham and is probably better over a better trip. Either back him or stay out!
Mares:
If Annie Power turns up and completes, unlike last year she will win. She is in a different league to this lot. Either back her or stay out!
Mares Novice:
Limini is the best around by a mile. She won her only race at Punchestown with stones in hand and the race could not have worked out any better. She looked really good that day and not alone will she win this but expect her to win the mares hurdle next year after Annie Power retires. Either back her or stay out!
Ryanair:
Vautour only has to jump around to collect. He may still run in the Gold Cup but with Mullins going for Champion Trainer in the UK this is unlikely. Either back him or stay out!
Cross Country:
Trained by the master, Enda Bolger, Josies Orders has won both banks races here, has youth on his side and is still improving. He will be very hard to beat.
The Others:
I see the Champion Chase as being a match between Un De Sceaux and Dodging Bullets. I favour Un De Sceaux but he is a headcase so I'll stay out.
I like Don Cossack in the Gold Cup slightly over Don Poli. The cheekpieces and better ground will help.
The other races are up for grabs but I would be wary of Black Hercules on faster ground as I think he needs it like a bog.
I expect Shaneshill to fall in whatever race he goes for as his jumping has been very dodgy.
Of the others, Bellshill looks good if he handles the faster ground and Killultagh Vic has a big chance wherever he runs. Also Doctor Harper, trained by Pipe would be very interesting in a handicap over 3miles and on better ground as he has been quietly campaigned over trips way short of his best and on very slow ground which should ensure a good handicap mark.
Again, these are just my opinions...
Remember that any profit constitutes value. Pick the horses you think will win because they cannot help what price they will be and be selective!
Happy Punting and Good Luck
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Re: Flat Racing 26th May
6.00 Ballinrobe Lanyard 5/4 Paddy Power BOGHere we have a horse from the Weld stable who do well here and one from the O' Brien stable who do not. Lanyard won her maiden last year on heavy ground at Listowel and finished 3rd lto at Killarney on quicker ground. She will prefer todays conditions more than Dance With Another who won her maiden on good ground and whose form is very moderate.10 Points win Lanyard 5/4 Paddy Power BOG -
Re: BBOTD Monday 26th May 6.00 Ballinrobe Lanyard 5/4 Paddy Power BOG Here we have a horse from the Weld stable who do well here and one from the O' Brien stable who do not. Lanyard won her maiden last year on heavy ground at Listowel and finished 3rd lto at Killarney on quicker ground. She will prefer todays conditions more than Dance With Another who won her maiden on good ground and whose form is very moderate. 1 Point win for nap purposes Lanyard 5/4 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 25th May
3.20 Curragh Magician 5/6 Boylesports BOGMagician is a proven Group 1 performer and will come on a lot for his first outing here lto when he got up close home under hands and heals to beat Parish Hall. O Brien has a great record in this race and as he is the only proven group 1 performer in the race, it is his to lose.10 Points win Magician 5/6 Boylesports BOG4.45 Curragh Adelaide 5/4 Boylesports BOGAnother race farmed by O' Brien and Adelaide who won impressively at Leopardstown last October went on to finishe a close second in a group 2 at Longchamps 2 weeks later. Makes his debut today but sets the standard and should win.10 Points win Adelaide 5/4 Boylesports BOG 1.45 Curragh Dick Whittington 8/13 BetVictor BOGDick Whittington was runner up to Capella Sansevero at Naas 10 days ago and should have won after meeting trouble in running. Will make no mistake today.10 Points win Dick Whittington 8/13 BetVictor BOG 5.40 Curragh Table Rock 3/1 BetVictor BOGTable Rock has been runner up 3 times now but sets the standard on his second last week at Navan to Maksoon. The extra 2 furlongs should help and he will win today in what could turn out to be a good maiden.10 Points win Table Mountain 3/1 BetVictor BOG -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 25th May 3.20 Curragh Magician 5/6 Boylesports BOG Magician is a proven Group 1 performer and will come on a lot for his first outing here lto when he got up close home under hands and heals to beat Parish Hall. O Brien has a great record in this race and as he is the only proven group 1 performer in the race, it is his to lose. 1 Point win for nap purposes Magician 5/6 Boylesports BOG
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Re: Flat Racing > Saturday May 24th 3.20 Curragh Kingman 5/6 Bet365 BOG Kingman ran away with the Greenham before finishing runner up in what looked a good renewal of the Guineas. I am always afraid of O'Brien at this time of year but his horses do not seem to be there yet so I think Kingman is the safest choice today 10 Points win Kingman 5/6 Bet365 BOG
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Re: BBOTD > Saturday May 24th 3.20 Curragh Kingman 5/6 Bet365 BOG Kingman ran away with the Greenham before finishing runner up in what looked a good renewal of the Guineas. I am always afraid of O'Brien at this time of year but his horses do not seem to be there yet so I think Kingman is the safest choice today 1 Point win for nap purposes Kingman 5/6 Bet365 BOG
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Friday May 23rd
8.50 Towcester Carnival Flag 8/11 Paddy Power BOGCarnival Flag was runner up at Chepstow in March before finishing 2nd to Midnight Jazz in a bumper here a few weeks ago. Henderson does well here and it really will be a surprise if she is beaten today. This race looks pretty uncompetitive.10 Points win Carnival Flag 8/11 Paddy Power BOG -
Re: BBOTD Friday 23rd 8.50 Towcester Carnival Flag 8/11 Paddy Power BOG Carnival Flag was runner up at Chepstow in March before finishing 2nd to Midnight Jazz in a bumper here a few weeks ago. Henderson does well here and it really will be a surprise if she is beaten today. This race looks pretty uncompetitive. 1 Point win for nap purposes Carnival Flag 8/11 Paddy Power BOG
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Re: Flat Racing > Tuesday May 20th
3.00 Nottingham Sir Frank Morgan 5/4 Coral BOGSir Frank Morgan was just denied by Chocala in a better race than this at Ascot 10 days ago and if running to that level of form, should win. Encouraging too is the fact he ran to the line.10 Points win Sir Frank Morgan 5/4 Coral BOG -
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 20th May 2014 3.00 Nottingham Sir Frank Morgan 5/4 Coral BOG Sir Frank Morgan was just denied by Chocala in a better race than this at Ascot 10 days ago and if running to that level of form, should win. Encouraging too is the fact he ran to the line. 1 Point win for nap purposes Sir Frank Morgan 5/4 Coral BOG
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8.55 Roscommon Kennoway 7/1 Bet365 BOG Kennoway came here last year having run down the field the previous week at Killarney. This year he does the same and having won this last year he was placed a few times during the winter, twice at Punchestown and once at Gowran. He handles this track having won this last year and will come on a ton for last weeks reappearance having been off the track for a few months. 5 Points e/w Kennoway 7/1 Bet365 BOG 4.40 Towcester Top Wood 11/8 Bet365 BOG Top Wood makes his debut over fences with his stable in very good form at the moment. Although his jumping must be taken on trust he was more consistent and had far better form than One Connemara over hurdles which is why he should win. 10 Points win Top Wood 11/8 Bet365 BOG
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Re: Flat Racing > Monday May 19th
4.30 Southwell Patrona Ciana 15/8 Stan James BOGPetrona Ciana won well at Ary a few weeks ago before running in a much better race at York where she did not trouble the judge. Back down in grade and trained by O'Meara who does well here she makes her Southwell debut against fair types, some whom have won here. However she looks to have improved from 3 to 4 and it will be a surprise if she doesnt go in today as the race she won at Ayr looks stronger than any race her opponents have won.10 Points win Petrona Ciana 15/8 Stan James BOG7.05 Windsor Kool Kompany 5/6 Paddy Power BOGKool Kompany ran green at Leicester but still won well and should take this in his stride before going on to Ascot. Merdon Castle won well at Kempton and may follow him home.10 Points win Kool Kompany 5/6 Paddy Power BOG 6.15 Leicester Fuwairt 13/8 Stan James BOGTown Crier was well backed at Lingfield but missed the break. He will know more today but not enough to beat Fuwairt who has been working well and should win.10 Points win Fuwairt 13/8 Stan James BOG -
Re: BBOTD > Monday May 19th 4.30 Southwell Patrona Ciana 15/8 Stan James BOG Petrona Ciana won well at Ary a few weeks ago before running in a much better race at York where she did not trouble the judge. Back down in grade and trained by O'Meara who does well here she makes her Southwell debut against fair types, some whom have won here. However she looks to have improved from 3 to 4 and it will be a surprise if she doesnt go in today as the race she won at Ayr looks stronger than any race her opponents have won. 1 Point win for nap purposes Petrona Ciana 15/8 Stan James BOG
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Re: Flat Racing > Sunday May 18th
4.05 Navan Leading Light 6/4 Stan James BOGO' Brien has traditionally used this as a lauch pad for his Gold Cup winners and Leading Light who some fancied for the Arc went from strength to strength last year winning at Royal Ascot. He is the best horse in the race and should be fit enough to win today with the Irish Guineas less than a week away.10 Points win Leading Light 6/4 Stan James BOG4.35 Navan John Constable 6/4 Stan James BOGSecond in a maiden here before disappointing at Tipperary, John Constable should win today on what is last chance saloon. He has the best form10 Points win John Constable 6/4 Stan James BOG 5.35 Navan Table Rock 7/4 Paddy Power BOGTable Rock was beaten a head by Eberoran in a maiden at Leopardstown last year before running second under a tender ride at Limerick lto. Should be fit now and win.10 Points win Table Rock 7/4 Paddy Power BOG 3.35 Navan Masai 2/1 Paddy Power BOGMasai ran well at Naas a couple of weeks ago before fading into 4th close home. Again, should be fitter and has to win this today before going to his target which is Ascot10 Points win Masai 2/1 Paddy Power BOG 3.05 Navan Fresh Focus 7/2 Bet365 BOGFresh Focus ran green when finishing a close up 6th to The Great War at the Curragh fto. This is easier and he should be straighter today. Has to win this well if he is to take up his engagement at Ascot.10 Points win Fresh Focus 7/2 Bet365 BOG 2.05 Navan Household Cavalry 9/2 BetVictor BOGHousehold Cavalry had a quiet introduction at the Curragh fto and should be fitter today. That was good maiden but is expected to leave that form way behind.10 Points win Household Cavalry 9/2 BetVctor BOG -
Re: BBOTD > Sunday May 18th 4.05 Navan Leading Light 6/4 Stan James BOG I missed the boat this morning Aidy! O' Brien has traditionally used this as a lauch pad for his Gold Cup winners and Leading Light who some fancied for the Arc went from strength to strength last year winning at Royal Ascot. He is the best horse in the race and should be fit enough to win today with the Irish Guineas less than a week away. 1 Point win for nap purposes Leading Light 6/4 Stan James BOG
Cheltenham Festival Trials - Updated Jan 25th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
First of all as we speak I am up 3 grand for the meeting and should On The Fringe do the business a good holiday will be in order!
I got my money back on Faugheen and backed Annie Power on the day.
Min was a disappointment but had no excuses whatsoever.
Limini and Don Cossack also did the business as well as Vroum Vroum Mag who was a good substitute for Annie Power.
My judgement was way off in relation to Bellshill, Barters Hill, Shaneshill and Black Hercules while having backed Sprinter Sacre in all of his runs except last years champion chase I never dreamed he could come back. Good for racing but not for the pocket! Invitation Only never made it, only winning his first bumper last Sunday. Such a shame as he was rated better than the Champion Bumper runner up.
Anyway, good luck to you all. I am off to pastures new in 6 weeks and will no longer be able to follow the racing as before unless I return to Ireland. So thanks for putting up with my opinions for the past 2.5 years!
There were as with everyone hard luck stories but I had a few great moments too to make up for them!