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Toast

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Posts posted by Toast

    Liverpool Hurdle > 2:50pm Saturday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Liverpool Hurdle > 2:50pm Saturday April 5th Good call Aidy. Geraghty rode the perfect race. Was surprised with the riding of Fishers, when will these connections learn you need a hold up merchant around the hurdle course in graded races? Note Splash of ginge aswell. It's a thorough test of stamina, with a 4f run in and only 3 hurdles in the last 6f.

    Liverpool Hurdle > 2:50pm Saturday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Liverpool Hurdle > 2:50pm Saturday April 5th Thousand Stars 10/1 William Hill. By process of elimination, At Fishers Cross, looks to need a decent size field and fast pace. Without these his jumping is awful, as he showed at Ascot and Newbury. Class horse in the race and course will suit his hold up style of running, which is what you need on this hurdle course. Melodic Rendevous, tries a new trip after proving he's not grade 1 class over 2m. Small field will suit, but ground may not be soft enough. Unproven over further than 17f. Salubrious, 2nd to More Than That reads well! But never won above class 2 and failed badly on this course last season. The Knoxs, no chance., Whisper,Best form is at Cheltenham, course will be a worry. Just held on lto in a grade 3, stepping up in trip and class. Zarkandar, horse without a trip. Won the 20f grade 1 last year under a from the front, stop start Ruby masterpiece from a novice, who just scraped hoe in this years renewal. Looks to be a horse that tries different trips as he's not true grade 1 class over whatever distance. Decent course form though. All of which leaves Thousand Stars. Usually runs in the Aintree hurdle, placed 3 times. Shrewd trainer put Diakali in the race, who just failed. TS now runs over a trip where he's been twice successful in grade 1 company in France. Had a quieter build up than normal this season, just 2 runs with his prep over an inadequate 18f and giving 10lbs. Will be spot on.

    AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th The whole complex of the race changed when the handicapper started compressing the handicap, giving the higher rated horses a better chance. With this, some trends died and some are on the verge of dying. 1 trend that has come to the fore in the last 6 years, is the winners hurdle rating. Each winner has achieved a rating of at least 139 over hurdles. Going back even further, upto Lord Gyllene, each winner had at least 6 runs over hurdles. Added together with a national debutante or 1 who had previously failed to get round and no 2nd season chasers, we are left with, Tidal Bay, Long Run, Walkon, Wayward Prince, Across The Bay, Battle Group, Burton Port, Chance Du Roy and Golan Run. We can eliminate, Golan Run, Wayward Prince, Walkon Nd Across the Bay because they need small fields. Chance Du Roy who's trainer is out of form. This leaves 4 probable winners. Long Run can go because he's been going downhill since last years Aon. Winning a naff race at Kelso doesn't mean he's back to his best. Tidal Bay 14/1... Can only discount on age, but why? He's consistently run better than ever this season, beating 4 grade 1 winners in his races and beaten 0.5l in Welsh national, giving 15lbs and more. Just about every gold cup trial this season, proved that he would have been in the mix at Cheltenham. Nicholls changed his riding ways in the Irish Hennessey, running him prominently, which will suit him in the national. With the handicapper compressing the weights, he has given him a massive chance. Burton Port 20/1... No real opinion about him, except that he looks rejuvenated since leaving Henderson, who is adept at knackering a decent chaser. Battle Group 50/1... A lot will dismiss him for not running this year, but his record suggests that he wouldn't even win a walk over in the winter months. But, it's a different story come spring and Aintree. Aintree form...10211... 0 came in october, whilst the 2nd was to course specialist Saint Are. March to May...01413422111 Fields of 18+...41940111p Fields of 18+ march to may...414111 Between march and may over 24f+....1111. They are my 3 against the field and will be done in exactas and trifectas aswell.

    Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Melling Chase > 3:05pm Friday April 4th Boston Bob 8/1 general A poor renewal and only a few have brade 1 form. So by process of elimination. Ballynagour needs an extended break between his races. Days Hotel has run further than 2m 7 times and failed each time. French Opera is a dog and has failed every time at grade 1 level and every chase run on a speed course. Module, only time he ran on a speed course, he failed. Best form is on big galloping courses, and his beating of a novice in the Aon does not read well. Radjani Express, stuck between 2 stones, too high in the weights for handicaps, not good enough in grade 1s. Flattered in the Ryanair. Stayed on well, so shorter trip, sharper course will not suit. Rathlin, quite useful in the past including a 2nd to Flemenstar, but form is hit and miss this season. Davy Russell rides another in the race. Rolling Aces is better on soft ground and going right handed, besides, he's not good enough. Looks an early season horse. Toner d'oudairies, can't really get an obvious read on his form, but he is much better going right handed. Davy Russell riding is a plus. Wishfull Thinking, won 1/7 around Aintree! But the stable are wonderfully out of form..see Menorah today. Pepite Rose, generally runs in class 2 races, outclassed, even with the mares allowance. All of which leaves Boston Bob, who has won at grade 1 level and should have won last years RSA, but for a last fence fall. Despite being tried over further, he is 5/5 over 20f.

    Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd Menorah 11/1 William Hill. Not much to add to Aidy's post. He has everything in his favour, course, time of year, distance, going, field size. FL is interesting and will be put in exactas with Menorah, but, he does not win often enough for a genuine grade 1 horse and no horse has ever won back to back in this race. Dynaste has stamina worries,IMO. Won a poor renewal of the Ryanair with at least 2 of the grade 1 winners in the field, failing to run their race. Didn't show at all in the King George, ran a air Rae in the Betfair chase, but, I have massive doubts about the true distance of that race. Tie would indicate fast ground or a course of less than 3m. Looking at Cue Cards run in the KG, I'd say the latter to be true. Pipe missed the GC in favour of the ryanair, indicating stamina doubts on his behalf. Silviniaco Conti is a confident place lay for reasons given earlier.

    Maghull Novices' Chase > 2:05pm Saturday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Maghull Novices' Chase > 2:15pm Saturday April 5th Western Warhorse goes for the Manifesto, which makes a lot of sense. Hinterland stands out like a sore thumb in this. A 2nd season novice running back in his correct division after running a sound race in the Champion Chase. Why do trainers run novices in open company? Nicholls has by far the best training record in this race.

    Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Betfred Bowl > 2:30pm Thursday April 3rd Conti had a hard race at Cheltenham, course will suit better, but failed in this last season in a weaker field after running at Cheltenham. Dynaste would have had a better chance in the Melling chase, even though, he is a c/d winner. Menorah Is very interesting. His record on speed courses reads 111112P. The p is his seasonal debut in the King George. First Lietenant has a great chance of repeating last seasons victory and will be fresh after missing the GC, invite hindsight, he would have gone close. Looks to be between FL and Menorah IMO.

    Super League 2014 - Round 7

    in Rugby League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Super League 2014 - Round 7 Huddersfield -8 @ 11/8 with betfred. -2/4 is the general line, but, I've got this down as -14, so the bigger handicap is attractive to me. Cannot go anywhere near Wire this season as we only have 1 hb on the pitch in Gaz o Brien, and it is rumoured that he has been dropped, leaving us with Myler who creates nothing and Ratchford who is a loose forward and not capable of creating anything, our best hb, Bridge, is nowadays a centre. Hudds loss to Catalans has seen a huge over reaction, Cats are slow to come to hand, unfortunately for Hudds, they copped for it last week. Cats next outing at Wigan, unlucky not to get at least a point, shows the Hudds win to be no fluke. With us having no hb's on the pitch, Danny Brough will have a field day with kicking Wire all over the pitch.

    Ascot racecourse

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ascot racecourse Only been the once,early 90s, and that was to the royal meeting in June. Never again, the place is so ar up its own arse, it's unbelievable. I was best man for a mate, a few weeks before, so bought myself a decent suit,or what I thought was decent, for £300+. The kind of suit that fits in for every occasion. Thought I'd wear it for ascot. Spent about 10 minutes walking up and down trying to find my entrance. Found it, I thought. Some old duffer in a trilby told me my get was further along. I asked how he knew this? He looked me up and down and said I can tell. He was right.

    AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL > 4:15pm Saturday April 5th How many stats are people dismissing this year? One stands out as never fallen. But, as last years winner proved, with the fences being made easier, think we can dismiss this one. Unfortunately, year on year, it's fast becoming another staying handicap chase. Looked into this last season, but, with the classier horses coming to the fore, and without checking up, are we still looking at horses with a hurdle rating of 135+

    Super League 2014 - Round 6

    in Rugby League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Super League 2014 - Round 6 2 good calls Kevin, unfortunately, Hudds didn't bother turning up. Only a double for me today. Hull FC -14.... Joe Mellor missing for Widnes today, which is similar to no Briers for Warrington,plus, they are away from the distinctly advantageous home pitch. Widnes have been walloped at the Boulevard on both their previous visits. Wakefield +10.... No Luke Walsh for Saints, which means no go forward, which was evident in heir 2nd display against Catalans. They rely on Hohaia who goes sideways more times than a fiddler crab and Jon Wilkin, who regresses with each season and is a loose forward. Wakey boast a few wins at home against Saints in recent easons.

    Super League 2014 - Round 6

    in Rugby League Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Super League 2014 - Round 6 Took 20/1 at betfred for the draw and covered the draw at 16/1 on -4 and -8. Loughlin not playing is a massive loss to Wigan, but in their favour, Myler is playing for Warrington, so, in effect, we are only playing with 1 halfback. This is a scratch game in my book.

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