Toast
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Posts posted by Toast
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Re: Trainer Form Agree with both posts. When deciding my bet in a race, it's class, distance then going I consider first before a few others. Trainer form is the last thing I consider especially if I've narrowed the field down to a few. Eg, ATM, I'd bet anything of Harry Frys over Jonjos . Some trainers are ridgidly set in their ways when it comes to targeting races. Over the past few years, it has generally been better to opposose anything o Brien or Nicholls better horses fto, then bet them nto. Geoff Wragg was my money cow years ago. Ignore his 2yos fto then bet them next time over 5 or 6 furlongs. Happy days. If he had a 2yo ready before royal Ascot, then that was his RA horse and was worth following for the rest of the season.
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Re: king george chase boxing day I always look at where the stable jockey goes when there are plenty of meetings. Tom Scu is at Wincanton for a Pipe hotpot before flying onto Kempton. Ruby Walsh is at Kempton. Of course, trying to work out the minds of that stable will give you migraines, but, my reading is, that Vautour will not be beaten in Ireland, so it's Kempton. Faugheen, on ratings should win, but Champagne Fever looks the main reason. He's the only unexposed chaser in the field and 3 miles should suit. Anything 4/1 or more near the off, must be taken. Of the rest. Al Ferof is feared most if getting the trip. Cue Card is past his best, hence the reason, IMO, joe Tizzard packed in. Also prefers bigger chase courses. Double Ross is there for a day out. Dynaste is proberley better over shorter at Cheltenham and held by Conti. Johns Spirit is a Cheltenham specialist and trainer is out of form. Should be on everyone's radar for the Ryanair. Menorah, always best on flat speed tracks, but is not quite top class. Conti, liable to a finisher on ground that's going against him. Wishfull Thinking, solid grade 2/3 horse, but failed every time he's run in grade 1 company. Wonderful Charm, twice battered in grade 1s and over 3m..outclassed but steadily improving.
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Re: 2014 Review My punting highlight would have been backing Western Warhorse in the Arkle at a silly price. My punting lowlight would have been spending days trawling through the form of the last 28 Arc winners with a smartarse view of finding alternative trends. Starting a thread on here and using the strongest trend, immediately putting a line through Treve!!! My smug highlights of the year was proving myself correct that this years middle distance 3yos were even worse than last years mob. Being correct in my derby thread that Adelaide was the best 3yo in the O Brien stable and not the over hyped Australia. Promises for next year will be an in depth thread on group 1 races with particular reference to how horses are prepped for them, and no more betting on aw racing. Roll on boxing day.
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Re: Favourite Courses and Meetings Any race meeting I find enjoyable, except for these god awful ladies days. I go racing at least once a month. Favourite days would be Chester vase day, international day at York and pretty much any evening meeting at Haydock. Cheltenham festival is fine in the best mate enclosure, but as said above, bloody horrible in tatts. Never been to Ireland, but the courses I would recommend going to abroad are Chantilly, Del Mar in San Diego and Canterbury Park in Sydney. All picturesque and enjoyable experiences.
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Re: 2014/15 NH Ante-Post Selections Reckon the 3m championship races are up for grabs this year. Lord Windermere will again be aimed at the GC with hopefully good ground, whilst the rest of last years mob are not upto it IMO. One that could come into the reckoning, judging by his steady improvement is Double Ross trained by Twiston Davies. Threw in a career best in the Charlie Hall and rus in the Betfair on Saturday. Has shown a liking for Cheltenham and stays 3m well. Looks to prefer soft ground. The Pillar Chase at the January meeting looks favourable. He has an entry in the Ryanair, best price 25/1. Only quote for the GC is on betfair at 66/1. He is a stayer in the making.
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Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015
I would have to disagree mate. If anything, I'd say he wants further and a decent break between his races. The reynoldstown at Ascot in February looks a nice option. Dont think we saw an Arkle winner in the race, but Dunravens would go close on faster ground with front running tactics in the Maghull chase on national day, whilst the fav and runner up should step up in trip markedly. Travels and jumps very nicely, the RSA at the festival would be nice. Be interesting to see what Nicholls plans are.Thanks for all the comments, will respond to all of you with my thoughts! Easy for me to say after the event but what put me off Duke Of Navan was his previous race at Carlisle against Urban Hymn. Urban Hymn should have really been suited by a step up in distance on Friday here at Cheltenham but did not look that good finishing 8 lengths behind a good yardstick in Colour Squadron and nearly 13 lengths behind the impressive Champagne West. Expected a better run from Urban Hymn. That form that to me would indicate that Duke Of Navan was not up to required standard for a grade 2 novice chase. Agree that ground suited Duke Of Navan but see that they decided to hold up this horse. As you say would have been better to have raced up with the pace and was never able to get on terms been behind at all times. I am not sure that I would want to see this horse over much further but a change of race tactics would probably pay dividends in future. Thanks for looking in Toast, really appreciate your comments. -
Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Bit too early for me to be betting novices in the season, but, I will throw a few rupees on Duke Of Navan. Obviously, he wants further, but heavy ground will see his stamina kick in and he front runs to make it a proper stamina test.
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Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Colour Squadron looks like a plugger to me with a preference for soft ground. 3m or more beckons. Welsh National, the Pillar Chase or 1 of the other grade 3 staying chases should suit him.
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Re: Novice Chasers - 2014/2015 Interesting thread you've got, that I will be keeping a close eye in the next few months. I don't normally bet novices until they've had a few runs, but 1 that has taken my eye this season is Duke Of Navan. Looks a stayer in the making IMO. Already won at Carlisle over the minimum trip and is entered in the grade 2 at Cheltenham this Sunday. That race is usually very informative. Looks to have a preference for soft ground, the Towton at Wetherby or Reynoldstown at ascot in February look ripe for him.
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV To continue the theme of prepping, take as an example, Ruler Of The World. Ran a big race in the Foy, ran another big race in the Arc, proberley upto his best, then flopped in the Champion at Ascot. 3 races in about 5 weeks. Though, o Brien is quite good at doing this. The old adage of the classic 5 week break between races of the highest class, still rings true. Horses are not machines.
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV It could be interesting for next year, with regards to European runners, if we concentrate more on the horses prepping, especially the French when it comes to end of season targets. Surely, it can't come as a surprise why they generally have a mid season break and concentrate on an autumn campaign. Karakonite and Anodin were lightly raced and ran big races, it's possible that Flintshire had the edge taken off him in the arc, whilst Telescope didn't even have a prep. Main Sequence has improved for his change of scenery, but at best was only group 3 class over here.imo, the British trained horses were either over prepped and the BC was an afterthought, or as in Telescopes case, under prepped.
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV Al Kazeem in the champion stakes and in Munich today, Ivanhowe franked the arc form. Flintshire should go close later for Fabre. Have taken US prices, should be bigger than the expected 9/4
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Re: OXO horses - speed figures
Think you can put Jacobean and the o Brien odds on fav who got turned over at the Curragh into this bracket. All down to the break between races IMO, especially the older horses, as 2yos are generally inexperienced to know any better.I recognise this if not the term used ! Speed figures do tend to go up and down Mainly of course because possibly the most important component of the figure is the pace of the race.......so a horse can record 'slow fast slow slow slow fast' because those were the relative paces of the races he ran in You've got to beware of horses that record big figures when finishing 7th in a race.......they can be dragged to a big figure by running in the peloton but will only record the big figures when they finish mid pack. Bounce......a horse records a big figure but the run takes a lot out of him and he's below that level if he doesn't have a few weeks recovery time and comes back too quickly.......then he can come back and record another big figure because the second race doesn't take as much out of him. I think this is more likely what MJ was on about...... -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Fav won the RP Trophy quite easily, but, ATM, doesn't look upto classic standard. Belardo tops the ratings, but 10f, soft ground and a 5 week break between races could be his for the taking next season, as this years middle distance mob have been disappointing apart from Adelaide, whom, more than likely, will be off to stud. Overall, this years 2yos look disappointing.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Anyone see the Manikato stakes this morning? 6 way photo.....sorry cant copy and paste, but worth a view on YouTube. No more than 2l between the 12 runners, and a group 1 to boot.
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Re: racing post trophy sat 25th oct Doesn't look like a race to bet on ATM. Will await final decs.
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Re: racing post trophy sat 25th oct None runner mate, he's staying at home. Jacobean and Aloft are his runners. The perils of AP betting I'm afraid.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread If you think racing is bad, you should listen to Talksport. Sycophancy at its best. The latest being a full day on every show about Raheem Sterling being tired. Over the day, each interviewee or presenter defended him, and over the day, tired became fatigued. Its true, the amount of arselicking these presenters do is quite nauseous. If they slag someone off, that person does not give that station interviews. Panorama exposed that corrupt sod, Darren Ferguson and his transfers. Daddy didn't like it and refused to talk to the bbc for years. Same with Redkapp and the bbc, now gives the odd interview, but prefers the easy ride on Talksport. Though listening to Adrian Durham stitching up the chairman of the FA on Friday was most enjoyable.
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Re: Flat Racing - Champions Weekend - October 17th & 18th My worry with cirrus is its his 2nd race back after his Epsom injury, he could well bounce. Its the silly season and on this ground, the form book goes out of the window. Ps, was impressed with Belardo yesterday. Got a lovely middle distance pedigree as long as he has dig in the ground and has a 5 week break between races. Agnes Stewart was another eyecatcatcher, looks like oaks for er and faster ground.
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Re: Flat Racing - Champions Weekend - October 17th & 18th ROTW is carrying more weight than last year, and IMO, is only running because Australia isn't. On the other hand, I quie like it when o Brien only sends 1 horse to a group 1 and doesn't go mob handed. I don't think Kingsbarns is out of it in the qe2 either. Back over his ideal trip on ideal ground and October form reads 113. Wouldn't be surprised to see Toormoore in the frame either.
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Re: Flat Racing - Champions Weekend - October 17th & 18th He's certainly improved with age, and if he gets an easy lead, he could give the others something to think about. I prefer to play ew in this, and with the ground as bad as it is, my thoughts on the meeting will be concentrating on those horses who've had a relatively quiet time in the last month. Cirrus looks the likely winner, but is not a play at the odds. Free Eagle is not proven in the class or ground, and I think even less of this years middle distance 3yos than last years bunch. Pethers Moon is no better than group 2 class at best. Ruler of the world is overrated and has run 2 big races in the last month or so. Sheikhazardaguess needs a big course with a long straight and is not upto this class. Ayrad can stay in his horsebox Western Hymn needs a flat course with a long finishing straight. All of which leaves Al Kazeem, whom according to his trainer finally gets his ground, has a 75% strike rate going right handed, cd winner and has not been knocked about in his 2 recent runs. Only doubt is the field size, but at 28/1 ew, he's worth a risk.
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Re: how can i avoid be limited?
I would say the opposite, and get to know the cashiers. Some are unbelievably thick, so can be manipulated by throwing them a few quid when your bet comes in. Sometimes, they are more than grateful and you get a bit extra, if you know what I mean:spank As for accounts, don't bother, as someone has already said, do a bit of legwork if betting 3 figures or more.The only way is to place the bets in person in a shop, do not sign up to any loyalty schemes, do not get to know the staff, remain as anonymous as possible and never visit the same shop more than once a month. If you want to be lazy, not put in any effort and sit at your computer and place the bets in your underwear then you have no chance. The system can be beat despite what some on here will have you believe, you just have to put in the effort, spread yourself as far and wide as you can -
Re: Flat Racing (Betfred Cesarewitch) > Saturday October 11th Might be better waiting for the day of the race and if Hills go ew 7 places again...
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Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Typical, 1st time in 26 years that the winner had previously run in the race and the 2nd to boot. Great performance though. Prince Gibraltar also ru a fine race beaten only a length off the places, whilst Gold Ship didn't have the early speed to hold his position and was given too much to do. My thoughts on this years middle distance 3yos have dropped even more and look to be up against it already for next years all aged races.
Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Hinterland...40/1 ew. Firstly, except for Sprinter Sacre, the 2 mile division has been quite weak for a few years. Injury to him meant Sire De Grugy took his mantle. Both have had their problems over the last 12 months, thus, both have something to prove at Cheltenham. In their absence, Dodging Bullets has been the best seen this season winning both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler. But, IMO, Nicholls has another very viable candidate in Hinterland. Courses like Aintree, Kempton and Wolverhampton are simply no good to him. What he needs is a fast pace and steep uphill finish, like Sandown and Cheltenham and a lengthy break between races. He ran in this race, as a novice last season, and was going very well until being brought down 4 out. Maybe, he should have gone the Arkle route. Why do trainers insist on running novices in open grade 1 races? Im not saying he's in the same class as Sprinter Sacre, but if Hendersons previous record with chasers is anything to go by, then he is finished and will go backwards. Sire De Grugy is yet to race this season and his trainers comments are very downbeat, leaving Dodging Bullets as the likely winner. But, providing Nicholls misses the Game Spirit, then Hinterland will go into the race under his ideal conditions. This is the only Cheltenham entry he has, there is no alternative at Aintree, so it's systems go for the QM and Celebration chase at Sandown on Whitbread day.