Toast
-
Posts
333 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Toast
-
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Epicurus is also highly strung, which means problems in the parade ring and going down to post in front of 100,000 people. The race is an afterthought and the last 3 generations on the damline scream 10f and no more. Saying that, it's a poor race in which a 10f horse could win it and would only have tobe group 3 class.
-
Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. 2015 review coming soon, though quick look at the form of the main protagonists is not inspiring. This looks a dreadful derby.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread The running of the Dewhurst winner, Belardo puts a damp squib on yesterday's Greenham. The trials have been disappointing IMO, which questions the form of last seasons 2yo group races. Thrown a few quid on Fabre's, Make Believe. 2/2 as a late maturing 2yo, going off odds on on both occasions. Started off this year in the main French trial, the Djebel, finishing 2nd when looking like scoring. All 3 races have come on soft ground, but, here's the kickers. The Djebel is a trial race usually undertaken by Fabre's main guineas hope? Basically a top 2 finish and it's the Newmarket guineas. Pennekamp won whilst the great Zafonic and ano whom I've forgot we're both beaten. The latter in a vintage guineas won by Rock of Gibraltar. The 2nd is the sire Makfi, whom showed ability on soft ground before winning his 2000 guineas and grand sire Dubawi was also equally at home on faster ground and won the Irish 2000. Ergo, whatever the ground, there will be no problem. 33s still available
-
Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Good luck with this Arsenal, it will be interesting to see how it progresses throughout the year. 1 sticks out a mile to me from your list, and that is Consort. Excellent for lines already from his maiden, as you've pointed out, but, going off his breeding, his main big race target worries me. He's by a miler who managed to win a poor French derby, who was also sired by a miler in Sharmadal and the dam line is mainly at a mile. Yet, he has a derby and Dante entry. It's not an exact science is breeding, but surely a mile would be his forte. I'd expect to see him in the st James palace at royal ascot. Also, if I may be so bold as to say. I found last seasons crop of middle distance 3yos to be disappointing, which was an improvement on last seasons 4yos, unless they were fillies. A brief glimpse at the results of last seasons all aged group 1 races over 10f+ would back this up. Hopefully, this years crop will be above average and we don't end up with another hype horse like Australia. If we don't, then providing she stays sound, Treve is on for a 3rd arc. All the best.
-
Re: The Aintree Top Novices’ Hurdle > Friday April 10th @ 2:15pm Gingerburn sp A case of like father like son. Any promising novice over the years has tended to avoid Cheltenham and wait for Aintree. Trip may be on the sharp side, but his running style is ideally suited to aintrees hurdle course. Whilst the rest of the field start racing at the top of the home straight with 2hurdles to go, Glingerburn will just pick them off 1by 1. My nap of the whole meeting.
-
Re: The Aintree Melling Steeple Chase > Friday April 10th @ 3:25pm Don Cossack 4/1 looks the logical winner. Al Ferof is better earlier in the season. Champagne Fever and Cue Card ( past his sell by date ) will knacker each other out vying for the lead. Balder Sucess wants a low single figure field was Sire de Grugy is also past his best and wont stay.
-
Re: Dosage method
Think it was someone called Steve Roman who came up with the idea. Nick Mordin used to champion this every derby. It was hit and miss. Breeding is not an exact science, to my mind, a horse will only run as far as its dam did and ground preference comes from the sire. This is also hit and miss, Frankel for example being the most high profile of recent years. Ims, it dismissed Sea the Stars. To my reading, being by a derby winner out of an arc winner, it couldn't fail to stay 12f. The more dismissals I read of him during derby week, the more visits I made to the bookies. The rest is history.I'll add that it's one of the most exciting & compelling racing concepts that I've come across in the last five years. Just need to slowly start putting it into action! -
Re: grand national trends Punchestown appears on the cv of Hedgehunter, Number6valverde and Papillon.so if you fancy an Irish horse, form at this course is important. Some trends will IMO, still be important, the age stat for example, but seeing as though the race has become less demanding, the horses race faster and falls will be more likely, so the fell no more than x times, will become a major factor.
-
Re: grand national trends The second I found when trying to think if the horse would act on the course. I had the likes of Exeter, Newbury, Punchestown etc, big galloping courses in mind. But, to my surprise, it was Cheltenham which figured the most prominently. 12 of the last 15 winners had either won, placed or beat at least 66% of the field there in 16+ runner fields. Thinking logically, it's no real surprise as the better class horses tend to run there, and seeing as though the national is now attracting better class horses, then it's no surprise at all.
-
Re: grand national trends Good luck with this Richard. The snag I see with following these trends, though they can be a good guideline, can become outdated. This is obviously down to the handicapper and his cause to give the better class of horses a more realistic chance. There are 2 major trends that I've discovered, that have developed in the last 7 years.The first being that the last 7 winners had a hurdle rating of at least 139. This is grade 3 level, of which the national is
-
Re: The Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle > Thursday April 9th @ 3:25pm Rock On Ruby confirmed to run. Lack of a prep is a concern.
-
Re: The Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle > Thursday April 9th @ 3:25pm The New One would be the obvious choice. Has a tendency to jump to his right, which is negated on the hurdles course as the tend to race close to the stands rail. Only snag ATM is the form of the stable. Jezki would be interesting if he comes here stepping up in trip
-
Re: The Betfred Bowl Steeple Chase > Thursday April 9th @ 2:50pm Silviniaco Conti..back on a flat speed course. Best 3 miler in the country, will be odds against
-
Re: The Aintree Melling Steeple Chase > Friday April 10th @ 3:25pm Starting point for this would be the Ryanair. If he runs, UxIzandre will be suited even more to this course than Cheltenham. Trouble is, his riding tactics are now in the open and he surely won't be given carte Blanche to do as he likes. Eduoard is the 1 I'd take from the Ryanair.
-
Re: Up,Down,Level Hop day at the course yesterday. £20 wins on Windsor Dodging and Moon Racer all at sp. French horse did my placepot in, in that horrible x country race. Lost on handicaps which I don't like anyway. only played ante post arctic fire on Tuesday, ew. Personally, I'm more pleased with my own way of thinking and not following the crowd. See my thought on QM chase.
-
Re: Parking at Cheltenham - Help?! My mistake, the pub is called the Adam and eve on Townsend street
-
Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm A big interest in the race for me is not running ( Hinterland ), and to be honest, I could rip apart every runner in the race. One that instantly goes is Sire De Grugy. I've been doing some research over the past month, of the winners of group 1 races on the flat, and how they are prepped. I should imagine that grade 1 NH races produce similar results. At the moment, my results would suggest, that at the highest grade, a horse should have a proper prep. Namely 1or 2 races within 4 weeks, then a break of 5 weeks. This will be SDG 3rd race in a month. Looked beaten when falling behind Mr Mole, then easily winning a 4 runner handicap at Chepstow, which told us nothing. Sprinter Sacre can do 1 aswell, just on Hendersons record with chasers. He just cannot keep them right like he can with his hurdlers. Special Tiara is the ew play, but her win to run ratio is poor. Much safer to stick with the inform Dodging Bullets who's competed and won the correct prep races.
-
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Was anyone else disappointed with the running of the champion hurdle? The time was 3 seconds slower than the supreme. Fair play to Ruby Walsh, but to allow a short priced fav who gets a lot further, carte Blanche to dictate was poor. Not once was he pressed for the lead, if he was the time would have been quicker and would have benefitted Arctic Fire even more.
-
Re: Parking at Cheltenham - Help?! Not sure of the name of the road, but it's a terraced street with a pub. The pack of cards I think.
-
Re: Parking at Cheltenham - Help?! We park up round the corner from the train station in 1 of the side streets. It's about 20/25 minute walk to the course. Might sound a bit of a trek, but at least you'll not be stuck in that after racing travel which is a nightmare.
-
Re: Ladbrokes World Hurdle > Thursday March 12th @ 3:20pm Rock on Ruby is out
-
Re: The Foxhunter Steeple Chase > Friday March 13th @ 4:00pm Echo the above compliments. Hunter chases are not my cup of Teaforthree :nanabut will have a bet now. I'll get me coat '
-
Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Faugheen cruises through his races, but his jumping is a lot better when the races quicken up. Agree that he is the most likely winner, but not at that price. I'd be more inclined to put him in a treble with the 2 Mullins favs earlier on the card.
-
Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Boston Bob is certainly a head scratcher. Pretty much unbeatable of 20 and 21f, yet he looks like he'd be better over further, but hasn't really shown it. Better ground would suit him and granted that, he'd be an each way bet in the Ryaniar or Gold Cup. Don't forget, he was looking the likely winner when falling in the RSA the other year. Bookies going anywhere between 10s and 25s for the Ryanair, but judging by the betting, GC looks the likely option.
2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Time to crack on with this. Firstly, this is the worst looking derby field I can recall, even cool more don't have a hype horse in it. Glen eagles will not run and if he does, o Brien should be shot for prepping a horse to race in 3 group 1s in 5 weeks. The same goes for Found. There are a few in the top half of the market that have yet to be entered, here as an afterthought...Epucuris, and just will not stay beyond 10f. Ergo, the value lies in the lower half of the betting.