Toast
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Posts posted by Toast
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Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm 8 declared at the 6 day stage, Hurricane Fly Arctic Fire Jezki Faugheen The New One Vaniteux Bertimont Kitten Rock.. No rain is forecast ( what I can see) which is not a plus for Hurricane Fly or Kitten Rock, who looks to be a pacemaker for Jezki.. My biggest fear though, would be a lack of pace, which won't suit the front 3 in the betting or Arctic Fire, but would Hurricane Fly, as would the small field. This could be a false meddling race.
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Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Couldn't really put you off him, his form with Many Clouds does read well and he goes very well on his 1st 2 runs after a break. The trainer is my worry, he's always, like his dad, preferred Aintree to Cheltenham, and IMO, a step upto 3m at Aintree would suit. That is based on the words " unable to quicken " in his write in his defeat to Wishful Thinking. Still reckon you will see a shock result in this race.
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Re: Preview reports 2015 Thanks for the updates lads, always interesting reading. Generally find that listening to jockeys thoughts to be more informative than anybody else's. Davy Russell is a jockey for the big occasion and, IMO, still very underrated. Has raced a fair bit over here recently so he must hear a lot in the weighing room. Irish will win the novice hurdles is a stand out comment.
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Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm He said that a few weeks ago. Think he was making excuses for the defeat at Cheltenham tbh.
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Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Not the horse he was I'm afraid. Reckon Tizzard knew he wasn't, hence his retirement from the saddle.
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Re: Ladbrokes World Hurdle > Thursday March 12th @ 3:20pm Generally this is usually an uncompetitive race for its status, as most horses that run are deemed to be not quick enough for the Aintree Hurdle over 20f, and thus have no other real option other than to run in this race. It's why we see regular winners back in the enclosure. Big Bucks, Inglis Drever, Baracuda et al. Most entries are simply not up to it. At Fishers Cross.....40/1 ew at William Hills. Now for a start, AP will be riding, and this will not go off at 40s, youll be lucky to get half of that. Not won for a fair while now and possibly not upto grade 1 standard, but he's a grade 1 winner and his figures in such events are 11u324. He's also a course, and more importantly, a festival winner. Course form reads 11123 from 5 runs. His record in march reads 213. As horses get older, they sometimes become more stubborn about what they like. It's quite possible he's a spring horse. A lot of negative things were said about his last run at Haydock..forget it. The ground was horrible and didn't suit those running off the pace, see also The New One, and the stable wasn't firing, and still not. Teaforthree ran a shocker on the same card for the stable. Rebecca Curtis has indicated that headgear will be changed or disgarded and this is a plus? He's failed all 7 times he's used pieces since his fall at ascot 14 months ago. Just to prove how fickle the betting public are, in his last 5 races, he's gone off at 1/1, 7/2, 4/7, 4/1 and 11/8. Whatever your opinions of AFC are, 40/1 is an absolute insult for a grade 1 winner on a course he acts on. Which is better credentials than a few who are ahead of him in the market.
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Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm :puke:puke:puke Thats twice now that he's bled this season. Being aimed at Sandown in april
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday February 14th The Ascot Chase.....by process of elimination.. Balder Sucess, twice a hurdle winner round here, but his best form is on speed courses like Warwick and Kempton. Would have a better chance of grade 1 success in the Melling at Aintree. Ptit Zig, excellent form this season and a perfect 4/4. But, 2 massive alarm bells ring. He's a novice running in open grade 1 company, and he's only running because Al Ferof is injured. An afterthought. Radhjani Express, woefully out of form this season and failed both times he's run at the highest level. Stuck between 2 rocks, he's grade 2 at best and too highly rated for handicaps. Theatre Guide, raced 8 times in graded company, and failed every time. Ma Filleule, looks a grade 3 handicapper at best! Proberley in bigger fields. All of which leaves...Ballycasey @4/1 with Betfred. Mullins preferred horse over Champagne Fever. His record after a break of 5 weeks or more reads, 113114f1...The 3rd was in a grade 1 hurdle, the 4th in the grade 1 RSA chase and the fell in a race which he'd have won if he had stood up. His record in grade 1 races reads 314f217. The 7th over a trip too short. His record over 20-22f reads 1111F1. Basically, he's the best horse in the race, with the best record and coming into it under his ideal conditions.
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Re: Ladbrokes World Hurdle > Thursday March 12th @ 3:20pm More Of That is a non jigger...burst blood vessel. Ps, is anyone else still scratching their heads at some of these time form ratings?
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Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Double Ross is scratched from the Gold Cup and still available at 50s for the Ryanair:ok
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Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm Hinterland is entered and still available at 50/1:ok
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Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm It's his novice status that puts me off him. Pipe had a similar one in Gloria Victus which he ruined by running him in the GC and not the RSA. But, like you say, it's a wide open race.
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Re: cheltenham 2015 - chat thread Well I was looking forward to seeing Double Ross in the Ryanair, but Twiston Davies as norsed that up by running him at Newbury tomorrow. Tbh, it's the meeting itself that I'm looking forward to and I will be there on the Thursday. Im coming around to the idea of avoiding the English trained horses in grade 1 races that have run at either the trials meeting, Newbury tomorrow and Wincanton next week. The festival falls 1 week early this year, and as we've already seen with Dynaste, these big races could have taken too much out of them. On the plus side, that makes a 4 week gap to Aintree, and that could be the best time to back horses such as many clouds, providing they run below par at the festival.
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Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Dynaste ruled out for the season.
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Re: Queen Mother Champion Chase > Wednesday March 11th @ 3:20pm
No game spirit entry..:nanaHinterland...40/1 ew. Firstly, except for Sprinter Sacre, the 2 mile division has been quite weak for a few years. Injury to him meant Sire De Grugy took his mantle. Both have had their problems over the last 12 months, thus, both have something to prove at Cheltenham. In their absence, Dodging Bullets has been the best seen this season winning both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler. But, IMO, Nicholls has another very viable candidate in Hinterland. Courses like Aintree, Kempton and Wolverhampton are simply no good to him. What he needs is a fast pace and steep uphill finish, like Sandown and Cheltenham and a lengthy break between races. He ran in this race, as a novice last season, and was going very well until being brought down 4 out. Maybe, he should have gone the Arkle route. Why do trainers insist on running novices in open grade 1 races? Im not saying he's in the same class as Sprinter Sacre, but if Hendersons previous record with chasers is anything to go by, then he is finished and will go backwards. Sire De Grugy is yet to race this season and his trainers comments are very downbeat, leaving Dodging Bullets as the likely winner. But, providing Nicholls misses the Game Spirit, then Hinterland will go into the race under his ideal conditions. This is the only Cheltenham entry he has, there is no alternative at Aintree, so it's systems go for the QM and Celebration chase at Sandown on Whitbread day. -
Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm
Will proberley have a saver on this in the next few days. Certainly very progressive, only worry, though slight, is the last time he crossed the Irish sea, he was hammered at Aintree. Looks like he's going straight GC, as he don't have an entry in the Hennessey, which looks good from a trends angle.I am also with dveryone on SC who isnt for me in the Gold Cup and definitely not at that price. Very hard to argue with the body of work Road to Riches has put together this year and hd is my selection -
Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm It could be something or nothing, but going back to 2000, except for Denman and Kauto Star, every winner had run no more than 3 times that season and none had run after either the King George or the Lexus. Obvious Nicholls trained both horses and he as entered Unioniste in the Denman this Saturday that both Denman and Kauto won. May be worth a small each way wager, but according to his trainer, the grand national is his main target.
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Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Double Ross given an entry in the Denman chase this Saturday.:wall
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Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm My problem with NTO is his jumping, drags his legs too much for my liking. I feel he's a shoe in for the Aintree Hurdle over 20f. Only 3 hurdles in the last 6 furlongs is a massive help for him.
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Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm
You could have a point there, should imagine he will trade bigger mid race. Runs in the Irish Hennessey this Sunday.Could be worth getting involved in running at a huge price mate, if he is held up. I backed Lord Windermere for the Gold Cup last year, and I felt so silly that I didn't get involved in-running given his hold up nature. He traded at 480 in-running! -
Re: Cheltenham Gold Cup > Friday March 13th @ 3:20pm Carlingford Lough 20/1 ew....after timing sorry. Agreed about SC. he missed the RSA a few years back because his trainer thought he was better on flat tracks. Waited for Aintree and won the Manifesto. CL ran a very encouraging comeback in the Lexus and was still in with a shout going to the last, until fitness caught him out. He was also not help by On His Own who continually jumped out to his right. Punchestown in may will suit him better. CL is exactly the type of horse McCoy thrives on, leave him out the back then throw everything at him.
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Re: Stan James Champion Hurdle > Tuesday March 10th @ 3:20pm Arctic Fire 25/1 ew...after timing sorry. Fav looks good, but having no prep race is a worry and still a chance that Ruby will stay loyal to Hurricane Fly if he turns up. Arctic Fire has finally started to show what he's capable of in his last 2 runs. He needs decent ground and a breakneck pace which he should get. Finished 2nd in the county hurdle last year.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Certainly, it was a taking performance, but at the price, he has to be a lay. No doubt he will encounter a bigger field, proberley the fastest ground he's ever encountered and will be taken on for the lead. but he does look the likeliest winner. Ps, does anyone know anything about his sire Denham Red? I've never heard of him.That was incredible by Un de Sceaux beating two quality horses by a mile. He could probably win the Champion Chase off that performance. A truly special talent. -
Re: The Ryanair Steeple Chase > Thursday March 12th @ 2:40pm Double Ross...50/1 ew Ladbrokes. The trouble with this race from an ante post view, is trying to work out which horses are going either Champion Chase or Gold Cup route. Dynaste and Al Ferof for example, but, if the betfair market is anything to go by, the DR is Ryanair bound instead of Gold Cup, and that makes sense IMO. Pout of 7 visits to Prestbury Park, he's either won or been placed in 6 of them, his sole poor run was in the Neptune as a hurdler behind Simonsig. His best performance coming in last years Jewson, when only beaten 2l. This season, he's ran a screamer in the Charlie Hall, Then quite predictably ran poorly at Haydock and Kempton. A definate reason would be that he doesn't like such courses, as his previous results at such tracks would indicate and that he doesn't stay 3m in top company. Pits interesting to note that Twiston Davies had a similar a few years ago with imperial commander. Like Double Ross, IC had excellent Previous Cheltenham form, he was comfortably beaten in the Neptune as a hurdler,he was best when fresh, he was poor on flatter speed courses,had failed miserably in that seasons King George and again like IC will go straight to the Ryanair with no prep. Trainers, as a rule are creatures of habit. Twiston Davies is no different. If he has a runner in this years Neptune, that is comfortably beaten, then leave it alone for 2 years and ante post him in the Ryanair.
Cheltenham Fun Bets - Singles/Multiples/Lucky 15's/Placepots etc
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Cheltenham Fun Bets - Singles/Multiples/Lucky 15's/Placepots etc Bet placed about 25th January. £5 each way singles, doubles and trebles and a £1 each way acca.. Arctic fire. 25/1 champion hurdle....now 14/1 Hinterland. 40/1 queen mother...now nr Double Ross 50/1...Ryanair.. Now generally 33/1 Carlingford Lough 20/1 Gold Cup..now generally 10/1 £20 ew world hurdle At Fishers Cross 40/1 now generally 33/1.