Toast
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Posts posted by Toast
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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Must admit to being delighted, then disappointed and back to delighted with the outcome of the Lexus. Last seasons GC form is now being boosted. Roughly a dozen lengths separating the winner ( rated some 20lbs Superior) to a listed race winner Unioniste, which again says that Bobs Worth OR is too high. The improved form of First Lieutenant from Down Royal on heavy ground to boot. Unioniste jumped impeccably and seemed to hit a flat spot at the 2nd last, before running on again, indicating he needs further. Argento chase would be a logical next outing. Looks like the GC may come too soon for him, with the Aintree Bowl being his best chance of grade 1 success, granted soft ground. Nothing to take out of the race, betting wise, considering the close proximity of the totally exposed Rubi Ball to the winner. The KG looks the strongest trial upto now, but worryingly for Cue Card backers, is the talk of the Ryanair or Champion Chase being possible alternatives.
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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Al Ferof...25/1... Betfred. Proberley the best horse to take out of the King George, GC wise. Took me by surprise how he finished the race, to an extent that the price just had to be taken. An excellent performance considering his only previous outing in over a year, was a match at Ascot lto. Surely, connections will now opt for the GC and not the Ryanair, considering how well he stayed on. He handles any ground and goes well at Cheltenham, where his figures are 2F1141 and 214 at the festival. The 4th being over 2m. As for the KG itself. It proved that the winner is a better horse on flat courses, Long Run is now finished at the highest level, and reaffirms my view that Cue Card is a doubtful stayer, due to his style of racing. Though, his jumping was a lot better, even when harried by Silviniaco Conti. Of last seasons staying novices, Dynaste ran a shocker for whatever reason, whilst Mount Benbulben is a head case, who needs to learn how to jump at pace. IMO, last seasons staying novices, are not upto much.
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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Now for the 3rd installments. I've decided to play AP with the view of having at least 3/4 runners going for me, instead of just betting 1 or 2 on the day. Usual stake is £100 per race, which will be divided up into single bets and exacta and trifectas on the day. Have bet 2 horses upto now. First Lietenant...20/1 William hills Ran an absolute shocker lto, but in fairness to him, he had 2 things against him. Ground and time of year. He is at his best in the spring 112321, and good ground 11322413. He has won or placed in 13 of his 16 races and boasts festival form figures of 122. He ran in the Ryanair last season at his owners insistence, instead of the GC. Should have listened to his trainer. Will go close granted good ground or better. Runs in the Lexus this Saturday. Unioniste....33/1 Corals Very much a horse that is flying under the radar. Started his chasing career as a 4yo and won a high class handicap at Cheltenham. Very rare indeed. He's continued to improve since, with a career best effort lto at Aintree off 152, which should put his rating upto about 160. He is very much suited to soft ground or worse ( will get that in the Lexus), on which, since going chasing, his form is 111. Looking at the time of his Aintree win would also suggest the going was soft and not the advertised gd/sf. Obviously acts around Cheltenham 314. Will be an exciting horse to follow over the next year or so, providing the mud is flying. Not much else leaps out at me from a betting angle. Al Ferof could be anything, but is unproven over 3m and Flemenstar would have been worth a punt at 33s if he had run in the Lexus. Though, both would have a better opportunity in the Ryanair.
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Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Sorry, previous post should have ended with never contested the all important king George or Lexus chase. Now, for the bigger players whom I believe will not win. No need to write up their achievements, just my fears, doubts and worries for them. Sir Des Champs...firstly we have the dreadful record of placed horses from the previous season to over come, but, more importantly, last year, in the last furlong, he was running on the spot, ie, stamina gave way. Cue Card...I don't believe that anyone thinks that the betfair chase was run over 25f, I even have my doubts that it was even 24f. To me, he looks to have too much speed for the GC trip, but his jumping is my worry. Watch last years KG or this years Betfair, when he's racing alone, his jumping is fine, when he is within eyesight of another horse, he can be quite tentative at his fences. Not difficult to envisage another Carvills Hill/ Golden Freeze scenario. Oh, and he's the only British bred in the race. Master Oats was the last Brit in 95. Since then, from 51 win and places, we've managed 6 places. Poor. Silviniaco Conti...missed the meeting in 2012 as Nicholls wanted to wait for a more suitable course..Aintree. Assumption proved correct last season, as he fell when his stamina started to ebb. All his best form is on flat courses. Dynaste...despite having won at Cheltenham, he's another who's best form is on flat courses. Big reservations about his stamina, due to his trainer running him in the Jewson last year, and not the 4f further RSA.
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This could be like War And Peace, so I will break it up and post over the next week or so. I don't normally bet AP, but of all the championship races at the festival, this looks to be the most wide open contest, and the 1 that offers the best value prices. I'll start off by taking last year's GC apart. Whenever I see a horse that is given a rating in of 170+ I ask if the horse is worthy of it. With the benefit of hindsight and post racecourse performances, we can agree or disagree with the Official Handicapper. In days gone by, the top class horses used to race over various trips, on various grounds and in handicaps, not just graded races. This made the horses official rating much easier to diagnose, unfortunately, nowadays, the better class horses are wrapped in cotton wool, making a judgement much more difficult, so much so, that it comes down to guesswork on behalf of the OH. Take Bobs Worth mark of winning the GC of 175 (ims). Subsequent results show that this rating is far too high. Of the beaten horses next runs (22 in total), only 2 have won 9%, 6 placed and the rest unplaced. So approximately 66% of the post GC runs, have resulted in the horses finishing unplaced. Shocking for a grade1 race. The 2 wins were by Monbeg Dude off 138 in a handicap and by Sir Des Champs who beat Long Run, ( has been deteriorating since last years Aon Chase) by 3/4l and First Lieutenant, who was racing on his hated soft and running in his 3rd grade 1 in 40 days, by 1 1/4l. So I can come to the conclusion that the OR given to Bobs Worth is wrong, and subsequently, so must the OR given to the beaten horses. To my eyes, he ran on up the hill past beaten and tiring horses. So it will come as no surprise that I don't rate the form of last seasons race. Another reason being, that the winner never contested the all i
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Re: Multiple declaration winners
Golden Firth was also entered and ran in a class 4 race, which I never noticed. Ran unplaced when 7/2 fav... Raced 2 classes above its lowest class entry. Mont Ventoux was down to run in a class 5 at kempton. Odds were 33/1+. Meeting abandoned.No about 15 minutes. Only showing 5 day entries now, and I can only see 3 qualifiers. Should also add that my system did not take recent form into account, theory is based on owner/ trainer looking for the easiest opportunity for the horse. Golden Firth.....3 entries in class 6, 1 in class 5 Mont Ventoux.....3 entries in class 6, 1 in class 5 Secret Song....4 entries in class 6, 1 in class 5. Horses should only be bet if running in the lower class. Only 3 in the next 5 days, but this number should increase massively over the Xmas period, with the greater number of meetings. -
Re: Multiple declaration winners 16/1 winner. Get in!:cow. Won a class 6 race. Be interesting to know how many races it was entered for and at what class.
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Re: Multiple declaration winners
No about 15 minutes. Only showing 5 day entries now, and I can only see 3 qualifiers. Should also add that my system did not take recent form into account, theory is based on owner/ trainer looking for the easiest opportunity for the horse. Golden Firth.....3 entries in class 6, 1 in class 5 Mont Ventoux.....3 entries in class 6, 1 in class 5 Secret Song....4 entries in class 6, 1 in class 5. Horses should only be bet if running in the lower class. Only 3 in the next 5 days, but this number should increase massively over the Xmas period, with the greater number of meetings.That must have took you ages! I purposely decided only to focus on AW and recent winners for just that reason! Hopefully this will find a few winners soon. -
Re: Multiple declaration winners Good luck with this. I used to do similar but without a staking plan. Sadly, for some reason or other, proberley time, I stopped. But the gist was, on a Sunday, check this weeks entries in the sporting life, any horse that had 4 or more entries, bet it. Had quite a few good priced winners, had better strike rate if the horse was running in the lowest valued race, of the ones it was entered for.
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Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Well, that was another race I got wrong. Like others, I took CC's kempton flop literally, and put a line through him getting 3 miles. But, he got himself into a nice rhythm from the off, IMO, due to the distance to the 1st fence, which gave him time to relax, also running against the rail certainly helped as it meant the other front runner Roi Du Mee was being forced wider. As I see it, the race took a lot out of him, which means he will need a break and due to kemptons fences, I don't think the course suits him. As for the KG, I would take Dynaste out of yesterday's race as the likely improver, with a bit of interest in Flemenstar. Long Run is another chaser that Henderson has knackered.
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Re: David Pipe is a superb sublime fantastic trainer! Not as interesting as how Volt Face runs in the bumper at Ascot. Won his only start last year very easily and he's not afraid to take on a Henderson hype horse who could be anything. Worth noting that stable apprentice has 1 ride at Huntingdon then off to Ascot to take off 7lb on Volt Face. Worth a punt at 12/1.
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Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Looks like Haydock are at it again. That coc must be the worst of any courses. Looking at those times yesterday, cannot compare the chase course times due to the changes, but the times of the hurdle course indicate it is not far off good ground, or the distances are shorter than stated. Anyone who knows Haydock would say the latter. Be careful with the betting at this meeting.
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Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. The first rule of betting I have is to only bet a horse that is proven under the race conditions, ie, proven in class, distance and going. It's not my idea and may seem myopic to some, but it generally narrows the field down. Take my selection, Roi Du Mee. Proven in grade 1, proven on soft ground, proven over distance. Racing between september and November, his form reads 2416f321211. Racing at 21f and more, 11171535811111121. Racing with 8 runners or less 242153211512535111211f21. When the 3 are married together, it reads 3212111. Also worth pointing out that he's had 36 career runs and remarkably, he is improving. He has won 7 of his last 10 runs. His defeats being either on good ground or at Gowran Park, where it seems he does not like the chase course. He may not be the best horse in the race, but he's proven under race conditions, is running under his optimum conditions and is race fit. Trainer is in form and jockey is 1/1 on him. Good luck if following.
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Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Totally threw it down all night and this morning with more heavy showers throughout the day to come. Really is quite miserable around here ATM. Next 3 days forecast sunshine though with a slight frost at night, which, at this time of year, will make the ground very holding. Read yesterday that Haydock are racing on the outside course which will add 1f to the race and the fences will be stiffer than they have been in the past few years.
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Re: Key Race: Betfair Chase, 3.00 Haydock, Saturday 23rd Nov. Took 20/1 each way Roi Du Mee, in the hope that the race will cut up and he does make the trip. In his favour are a front runner on a suitable course on ground that will be a lot slower than the official gd/sf. Finally got his act together at Down Royal and looks more than capable of improving again on that grade 1 win. He has fitness on his side, which most of the others do not. Of the rest, Dynaste could be a contender, but IMO, he will be tenderly handled with a view to the more suitable kempton. Cue Card will not stay in that ground, Bobs Worth will not be knocked about with Cheltenham being his main target, Conti for the forecast, but I don't have him as a top class grade 1 nag atm? Long Run is finished and is another example of how Henderson can knacker a chaser when it's run a dozen times or more. The Giant Bolster needs Cheltenham and not a sharp ish flat left handed course, and if Tidal Bay wins, I'm giving the game up. Flattered at Wetherby and is too old for a grade 1 winner. In all match fitness wins the race on that ground.
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Re: lay the 1st to reach evens Why don't you just put a lay of 1.9 up against all the runners, if you want to go down that route? Don't think it nessersary to stick to certain courses, but stick to distances, ie 5/6f races at lingfield, where it is not rare to see at least 2 horses trading at odds on. Stiffer courses would suit you best IMO, and stick to handicaps, say at Cheltenham or a similar stiff uphill course. A knowledge of how a horse is likely to run is a plus, ie, front runner, held up, as this could give you another pre race option, ie, held up at the back at Cheltenham, then I would put a lay up at say 5/1 and a back at 8/1, making sure that I was guaranteed a profit whatever the result, of course providing I am matched. 1 more important point is knowledge of the course. Everyone knows that front runners over 5f at Chester do well, but other courses are not so well known. Take the hurdle course at Aintree. It's a fallacy that Aintree hurdle course suits front runners, especially in the better class races, it doesn't. It suits hold up horses better, same as Chepstow, where form at both courses, often translates well. Oh and don't try and lay in running, the bots and fast pic boys will eat you up, best to do pre race, and let it run in play.. Good luck, be interesting to see how you get on.
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Re: key race - bet365 Charlie Hall Chase - 2/11/2013 At those prices, Cape Tribulation would be the 1. Goes very well fresh, needs soft ground and has Wetherby form. Long Run would be a lay. He won't be spot on fitness wise, as his major targets are at Haydock pre Christmas and Kempton, and he's always prone to the odd dodgy jump, which he won't get away with around Wetherby. Also a worry with these French bred jumpers is how long they can hold their form for, Kauto Star and The Fellow exempt.
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Re: Rugby League World Cup 2013
Just found out he walked out of a press interview yesterday. :eek. Regarding Sinfield, it's no surprise that Leeds tend to struggle when they have hb problems and he has to play hb instead of loose where he sees the game far better.Because we have a coach who is massively out of his depth. Agree with you re our chances and Sinfield. I've been saying it for a couple of years. We'll never win big internationals with him at 6. To think we could've been playing Danny Brough there :(. I was slowly getting some optimism building until McNamara named the squad for the tournament and then realism set in :lol. -
Re: NH Novice Notebook Interesting thread, look forward to reading this over the winter months. Regarding the 1st at Chepstow, Nicholls had Caesar Milan entered in this at the 5 day stage, but has elected The grade 2 Persian War instead, which speaks volumes to me. Stable jockey rides instead of going to Aintree for a more valuable race.
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Re: Rugby League World Cup 2013 Taken Samoa with the 38. They have settled very well here in Warrington, where this fixture is being played. Without going into too much reason, I expect the Kiwis to win, but there is just no point in going all out in the 1st game. The game is pretty much a sell out, and Samoa are pretty much guaranteed the support of the " neutrals" in the crowd:lol, and the weather forecast is for strong winds and heavy rain. As for England's chances, forget it, maybe they can give the Aussies a 12/14 start, in what will be a tough opening game battle, but they will be easy to take on, handicap wise, in their remaining games, especially if a world class loose forward is playing stand off. Why do we not play our players in their natural positions?:hope
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Re: Aidy's Antepost Betting Also entered for the champion hurdle, for which he's as low as 12/1. Bit too early for me to get involved in the ap markets, but good luck. A good place to start for an Arkle winner, is a hurdle rating of 140+, which he easily surpasses.
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Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Novellist is a non runner:(. Hopefully rerouted to Japan cup
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Re: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2013 Firstly, this years renewal looks better than last years. Secondly, it's usually simple to narrow down the possible winners. Best place to look, is for a horse that's won a group 1 by 2 lengths or more that season. Im on Novellist at 6/1 and Intello at 14s. Novellist, is being underrated, now won 3 group 1s on the trot, without fuss, whilst Intello is a saver. He's a 10f horse to my eyes, but Fabre knows far more than me, can't understand why he's not gone his usual Niel/Arc route. Thought he would have been a cert for the champion stakes. Treve is another for the list, but having only run 4 times is putting me off. The Fugue will get a good coat of looking at on the day for Pari Mutuel purposes, providing the ground is no worse than good.
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Re: Using exchanges (Betfair) for betting on Horse Racing - Any tips and advice? Avoid in running unless you have a bot or fast pictures, otherwise, you will get crucified. As for your betting, stick to what you know, wether it racing, footsie or whatever. My method that works for me is when it comes to racing, on the flat I only bet on listed class or better, same over jumps + class 3 chases. I find that by sticking to my criteria, is more successful than betting on any race. Another thing to consider seriously is the place market. I bet to £100 per race, of which, 20 will be placed at the bookies on the win, with the other 80 in the place market on betfair. The reason for more emphasis on the place market, is obviously more chance of a return, and if my/ your reasoning is sound, you can easily reduce potential placed horses in any race. Ie, in a 10 runner race, usually at least 3 have no chance realistically, ergo, you're looking at going from finding a top3 placing from 10 runners, it's no down to top 3 from 7 runners. Dont get greedy, little fish are sweet, and the rewards will soon build up. This post was sent from Punta Umbria, holiday was paid for via the place market on betfair.
Key Race: Peter Marsh Chase : Haydock 3.15, Sat 18th Jan.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Key Race: Peter Marsh Chase : Haydock 3.15, Sat 18th Jan. Chance du Roy was a mile behind Katenko last season at Sandown, so surely he must be up there in your ratings. First thing to point out, is heavy rain is forecast to fall on heavy ground. Second, the chase course suits prominent runners. Step forward Katenko. Took a couple of runs last season to come right, then he did with a bang. Big wins at cheltenham and Sandown, with the form starting to work out well. Had a Hennesey and paddy power winners behind, amongst others. Was in the process of running a big race in the Hennesey, when falling 7 out. Then went to Aintree, where quite possibly, the course didn't suit. Has since been rested since, and no doubt targeted for this race by his trainer, who has won this race a few times before and whose stable continues to be in fine form. Finally, he's by Laveron, who loved bottomless ground, Katenko looks the same type.